Is this +EV?

obsidian · #1 06-06-2005, 06:46 PM

I don't make this move often. The PF raiser isn't real laggy but does try to steal blinds often, and my table image is tighter than most and I defend my blinds less than most. Looking back I think I should have 3-bet PF. My question is, do you think this move is profitable to try pulling every now and then?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

SkyRocker · #2 06-06-2005, 06:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
do you think this move is profitable to try pulling every now and then?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but I prefer to have some kind of draw when I do it

baronzeus · #3 06-06-2005, 08:13 PM

It only has to work something like 20% of the time, but you can't do it in just any situation. I do this with 2 overs on a raggy board or a flush draw, or a middle pocket pair in some sort of ultra-raggy board.

If the raiser calls my turn c/r I check/fold the river on any miss. A 3bet is also an obvious fold IMO

mungpo · #4 06-06-2005, 08:23 PM

This play might be fine HU, but I don't think it is +EV against two opponents.

Kakafoni · #5 06-06-2005, 08:36 PM

Nothing wrong with trying the move on turn, but I would've folded preflop. I also can't see myself calling the flop, unless I've decided in advance to c/r the turn. However, those moves works best HU, I think

donger · #6 06-06-2005, 09:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It only has to work something like 20% of the time,

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?
You're putting in a ton of bets with this play, there's no way 20% is right.

Look at it like this: the flop call starts your commitment to this play. You're risking 2.5 BBs (flop call + turn CR) to win 5.5 BBs (the pot on the turn after Villain bets). This is 2.2:1. This means you need to fold both opponents 31% of the time. This is questionable heads up and seems downright spewy in a MW pot.

StellarWind · #7 06-06-2005, 09:48 PM

I would fold preflop. If I did want to play because opponent gets completely out-of-line I wouldn't just call with an ace.

There are two basic things wrong with this turn play.

1. You shouldn't be here. You want to make a play like this once in a while to vary your game? Make it when you have a natural draw that justifies calling the flop and cushions the cost of your turn bluff. If your cards were spades you would only be putting one extra bet in the pot and much of that would be repaid through your outs.

2. Don't do this with an ace. As actually played there is a very good chance that if you had just called, the river would have gone brick-check-check-check-YHIG. If your cards were 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] you would have a lot more to gain by bluffing.