#1
|
|||
|
|||
Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
Event Buy-In: $50+$5 ($550 total prize pool)
Level III: 50/100 Blinds (25 Minimum Chip) Average Stack: 12,222.22 (10,000 starting chips) Remaining Players: 9 (11 started) Seat 1 : craptastic16 starts with 11,450 Seat 2 : CieloAzor starts with 10,325 Seat 3 : geofft81 starts with 10,025 Seat 4 : MacCommons starts with 7,575 Seat 5 : Jimmy19 starts with 10,625 Seat 6 : augmented starts with 32,875 Seat 7 : Git-r-dun starts with 7,675 Seat 8 : mzha0504 starts with 11,125 Seat 9 : coach1126 starts with 8,325 Seat 3 : geofft81 has the dealer button >>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<< CieloAzor dealt down K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] MacCommons posts the small blind 50 Jimmy19 posts the big blind 100 augmented folds Git-r-dun folds mzha0504 calls 100 coach1126 folds craptastic16 folds CieloAzor raises 275 to 375 geofft81 folds MacCommons calls 325 Jimmy19 folds mzha0504 calls 275 >>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ] MacCommons checks mzha0504 bets 3,475 CieloAzor thinks for a while and folds Thoughts? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
It took me a second to see that you have a club in your hand.
Why did you fold this? Ever? There is absolutely no reason to ever fold this. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
[ QUOTE ]
It took me a second to see that you have a club in your hand. Why did you fold this? Ever? There is absolutely no reason to ever fold this. [/ QUOTE ] Umm, haven't you ever heard of a pattern mapper? Jeez, n00b. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
with your reads, your image, and how far (or not far) you are from the money, good fold
BLLLLAGGGGGGGGGGHRHHGHRHG |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
puke
pukepukepukepukepukebarf What on earth gives you the idea he has more than 12 outs? |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you fold this? Ever? There is absolutely no reason to ever fold this. [/ QUOTE ] That was my initial reaction, too, but I think it's a lot closer than it looks. Stacks are quite deep, we still have 100 BBs left behind. The amount of dead money is nice but not massive. Even the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] has 12 outs here, and if you give it a J it picks up 3 gutshot outs as well, for example. AT or AQ also gain 3 extra outs. So most plausible A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hands we can run into are going to be minor dogs or minor favorites. Two pair and set holdings are also quite plausible. We're probably about even, but a little worse, against two pair (counterfeit outs and flush outs) and a reasonable dog to a set. If we push now, which is the only option I'd be particularly happy with if I were going to continue playing, since I'm not calling off 40% of my stack and folding here, then we're going to need to win ~40% of the time (my math may be off, I'm doing it in my head) to be chip EV profitable here. I think we'll probably win just a little more than that, so I think it's a close call. EDIT: I think the best case scenario is that we're up against a combo draw with the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which we smash. Taking that into account makes things more favorable, but I don't know how likely it is. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here? Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge?
If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
[ QUOTE ]
He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here? [/ QUOTE ] No. [ QUOTE ] Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge? [/ QUOTE ] Jesus tapdancing christ, yes. [ QUOTE ] If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range. [/ QUOTE ] Every decision can take a while if you think about it too hard. I think it was sirio who said "Poker is too difficult a game to screw up by getting the easy decisions wrong." You have an overpair and the 2nd nut flush draw. NO ONE IN THE WORLD pushes a flush on this board. The best he can possibly have is J9, and I sincerely doubt he has it. You're kidding yourself if you think this is a hard decision. This is like saying "I raised with KK and someone pushed behind me!!! My edge isn't THAT big. I'll fold and wait for a better spot." |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
[ QUOTE ]
He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here? Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge? If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range. [/ QUOTE ] You're 53% vs. the absolute best hand he could possibly have, top 2, and 52% vs. AcQx. He has something better than that around 1% of the time, something worse than that...a whole lot of the time, and the nuts approximately never. This is not even a small edge, it's >10%. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.
Hmm, I tend to think he's protecting a set of 8s or the straight much more than 1% of the time. I was putting villain pretty squarely on 2 pair or better here, although the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + a pair is admittedly possible. The sets have me beat much worse than what I've got over the 2-pair and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + pair hands.
I should've ran some calculations through before I posted but I didn't. Seeing that I'm favored over top two is certainly giving me pause here. Pushing has got to be +cEV I think. On the other hand, I'll win this small tourney about 3x the average by playing small-ball early and pushing people around late. They've got a similar small-field $100+10 tourney on weekends and I've won straight up 6/14 times this year with fields of 24, 22, and 15 amongst my wins. It's not a given that I should race 2-pair here. |
|
|