AQs 100NL

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!! · #1 10-21-2004, 02:22 PM

MP3 is a TAG. I put him on an overpair or a set.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed)

MP3 ($232.05)
CO ($79.7)
Button ($146.05)
SB ($116.7)
BB ($100)
Jerkstore ($209.6)
UTG+1 ($114.9)
MP1 ($107)
MP2 ($257.85)

Preflop: Jerkstore is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
Jerkstore raises to $12, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $12, CO folds, Button folds, SB (poster) calls $11, BB folds.

Flop: ($38) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Jerkstore bets $35, MP3 raises to $70, SB folds, Jerkstore calls $35.

Turn: ($178) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Jerkstore checks, MP3 bets $100, Jerkstore calls $127.60 (All-In), MP3 calls $27.60.

River: ($433.20) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $433.20
Main Pot: $433.20, between MP3 and Jerkstore.

Benal · #2 10-21-2004, 02:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is a TAG. I put him on an overpair or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what you're saying is you like getting your money in with the worst of it?

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!! · #3 10-21-2004, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is a TAG. I put him on an overpair or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what you're saying is you like getting your money in with the worst of it?

[/ QUOTE ]

???
lets say he half the time he has top set, and the other half he has JJ. Well, half the time i have a gutshot and a flush draw against his set w/ 2 cards to come. Now lets say he has JJ, i have 6 overcards, 9 flush cards and 3 str8 cards to beat him. That makes me a fav.

If he had 55, he was a 68% fav on the flop. If he had JJ w/ a heart, i am a 59.3% fav on the flop

ScottTheFish · #4 10-21-2004, 02:38 PM

I'd say bad call...if you think both your overcards are good as well as the flush, I think it's borderline...but since you think only a flush will win it for you, seems like an easy fold.

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!! · #5 10-21-2004, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say bad call...if you think both your overcards are good as well as the flush, I think it's borderline...but since you think only a flush will win it for you, seems like an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad call on the flop or turn or both? I think the flop is fine. Its the turn im worried about. BTW i had a gutshot too.

ScottTheFish · #6 10-21-2004, 03:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Bad call on the flop or turn or both? I think the flop is fine. Its the turn im worried about. BTW i had a gutshot too.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I was talking about the turn, flop you have to call the raise. On the turn, looking again I'm not so sure I don't like the call. What did you think the chances were that your TPTK was good? You said he had at least an overpair on the flop...You're only behind AA, KK or a set...no way a TAG has 2 pair or A3.

Your outs plus the chance you're ahead, hmmm it's a lot closer than when I read through it quickly before. Against anyone but the taggiest of TAG's I'd say it's a call.

ddubois · #7 10-22-2004, 12:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is a TAG. I put him on an overpair or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]
Overpair to the flop, or overpair to the turn? How high? TT? 99? 88? Your terminology is unclear, since JJ is no longer an "overpair" on the turn.

On the turn you are a 7:3 dog to AA-QQ, 55, 44, 22. Add in JJ and you are 4:5; add in TT and you are 5:4; add in any pocket pair and you are 3:1.

Wayfare · #8 10-22-2004, 01:09 AM

I like a push in on the flop a ton more than a call all-in on the turn.

Daann · #9 10-22-2004, 06:37 AM

Once he min raises you, push it all in on the flop. Along with the fact that you will definitely get to see 2 cards if he calls, you also get a bit of fold equity if he has a mid PP. The other problem with calling is that you are unlikely to get paid off if any of your good outs hit (and run the risk of getting stitched if you hit a pair out and he has a set). Though you have sufficient immediate odds to continue just on the basis of the straight/flush outs, you will show a larger profit if you just push it in on the flop.

Zag · #10 10-22-2004, 12:22 PM

On the flop, you are a little ahead of JJ: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569900
and even ahead of KK and QQ http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569918 and http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569927
(I gave the JJ the Jh, but didn't give the KK the Kh, which makes a noticeable difference.)

You're a little behind AA http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569923
2-to-1 behind 55: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569902
almost 2-to-1 behind A3s http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569903
and exactly even with A5s http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569907

On the turn you are in bigger trouble against AA http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569924
and 2-to-1 behind KK and QQ http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569917 and http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569926
Also against A3 and 55 http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569913 and http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569915
But you are now 20-to-1 ahead of JJ: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=569916

I don't actually put him on any of these suited-ace or set hands, because of his preflop raise -- I was just curious. If he is really TAG, then I put him on a big pair or AK, and I drop AK from his flop action. You are ahead of all of these except AA, and you aren't THAT much of a dog to AA. (Also, with you holding an ace, it makes KK twice as likely as AA.) I agree with everyone who says you should push on the flop.

On the turn, you are behind all the big pairs except JJ, and I don't see him making that turn bet with JJ. I have to admit that the turn sure feels like the queen has just helped your hand significantly (without doing the math above) so it is hard not to feel good about it. I would have a hard time checking and folding there -- it feels so weak. I would be very glad that I am already all in.

By the way, the gutshot is an important part of being ahead of KK and QQ. If we change the 5h to a 6h, you are no longer ahead of those hands. So, while a gutshot isn't worthwhile by itself, it is an important addition to a hand that is otherwise on the edge.