AQs: big draw on the flop facing a weak flop bet.

[fimbulwinter]

Once again, I am shocked, astonished and ashamed at the weakness of the suggested lines.

You're holding a giant-monster-rock-crushing-mohammad-imar-bruce-chan-van-dam hand here. push it every time you have a brain in your head. your only mistake was raising to 15 and not insta-pushing.

1. When he's got the pure nuts, you're drawing very very live
2. When he doesnt you win a nice pot and get paid off with a hand that's surely behind
3. When he kinda does and gets the balls to call, you're still FAVORED TO WIN
4. When he kinda does and doesnt call, you win a nice pot that he SHOULDNT have given up.


come on guys, if you're not willing to push here...

fim

[Daann]

Put it this way, do you want to give any other flush draws the chance to fold? Obviously not, you want them to call and hit so that you can take their money with the nuts. The other point is that you are going to call/reraise any of the other players flop raises anyway (considering your stack size and the size of the pot), its just that you want to give yourself the chance to get more money than what is it is the pot right now.

If it was headsup, it would be an insta push.

[Wayfare]

Entity, I saw some of your limit posts and they are good. Welcome to NL.

I would just call the flop bet. He is giving you great odds to draw to the nuts and you still have two streets to improve. Raising is not terrible though, you probably have decent fold equity and the pot is rather big.

Also there is the question of raising AQs in middle position. However I won't start that debate again [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Entity]

Thanks for all the help guys. Everyone folded to my bet and I took down a decent-sized pot.

I can understand the reluctance with raising AQs preflop. Table had been running tight; this seemed to be an anomaly of a hand.

The concern I had with calling was that I knew that with my limited stack size ($15 left with $17 or more in the pot), I'd rather get my money in now than on the turn. One of the lessons I've taken away so far from Ciaffone is that with a drawing hand, unlike in limit, you'd rather get as much money as possible in on the flop. I agree that leaving myself with $2 or whatever in my stack was silly; it would've made just as much sense to push. Had the pot been $5 here, I probably would have just flat called. It seemed to me that even giving myself 20% folding equity here would skew the edges in favor of raising, and I thought I had a lot more than 20% FE. I'm still working on learning the math in these scenarios.

The other addendum to this is that when I had been playing at this table, I was also playing my stronger hands this way. I rarely got called (I'm guessing this is a hallmark of NL), but I was trying to keep my play the same -- I would checkraise flush draws and sets with equal frequency.

Anyway -- does anyone have a good book to recommend for NL play? I'm starting to understand the theory from Ciaffone and Reuben, but I'd like to know more in depth. I've read SS but these aren't deep-stacked money games with weaktight players, so I'm not sure how well that advice applies.

Rob

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really see the point of raising here. He's offering you such good odds to draw out on him. Stack sizes are short enough that he might think screw it and call you anyway with QQ, especially considering this is PP NL $25. Probably most importantly, there are two other people in the hand that you haven't seen in action yet.

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Do you discount the other players in the hand here and just focus on taking down the pot and/or getting it all in with the PF reraiser?

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If he calls with QQ, make a note and take this guys money with AK or the like. The point is we need to give him the option to fold QQ. The reality of the other two people are, they don't matter. If they have a set or top two they'll call. If not, they fold. No biggie, as it doesn't matter who has a set and who doesn't, because as we've pointed out, they won't have a set enough of the time to make this negative EV even if you CALL an all in.


[ QUOTE ]
A smooth call bring along other flush draws and perhaps even a weaker straight draw, along with random other hands, further inhancing your pot odds here.

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You have the opportunity to win a huge pot here with your nut draws.
Put it this way, do you want to give any other flush draws the chance to fold?

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I'll go over this one more time. The biggest positive EV in this situation is to take this pot home RIGHT now.

[ QUOTE ]
If you put in $15.25 and he folds, you pull back $32.65 for a profit of $17.40. If you put in $15.25 and he calls with a range of hands that=50/50, you put in $15.25 and pull back $23.60 for a profit of $8.35. YOU WANT THIS GUY TO FOLD!


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The thing you guys are assuming is that there are other flush/str8 draws that will call AND pay you off if you hit. And look at it like this. If they have a flush draw, they should CALL your all in any way. Once you go all in, there is $32.65 in the pot and they have to call 15.25, for pot odds of 2.14:1. Plus there is a possiblility that the original raiser will call, making the odds (implied) north of 3:1. The odds of hitting a flush if everyone is all in on the flop is about 1.85:1. For a flush draw to not call here would be to give away EV.

If you call, by the time it gets to them, they will be getting 12:1 on thier money. To me that means I call with any possible way out, (backdoor, inside str8) or any pair. This means that if you don't improve, you are that much less likely to win. The idea is, you want to knock out the hands that are ahead of you if you don't improve. IF you get called, you're still no worse than a 1.5:1 dog.

[felson]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you reraising that much? Basically you're going all-in.

Why not reraise to $7 - $10? If he smooth calls then you might want to see as many free cards as possible, if he pushes you can choose to fold or gamble on the flush draw.

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The boldfaced text makes no sense at all.

On the flop, push or call. If you raise, you are pot-committed anyway, so you should push and give yourself the best possible chance to win right now.

I favor pushing. The pot is big compared to your stack, so you should try to take it down. It is rare that you are a significant dog, and you have a good chance of folding out hands that are even money against you.

[felson]

Also, if the flop bettor is likely to make another tiny bet on the turn, then calling the flop is better, since you know you will see the river cheaply.

If on the other hand the flop bettor is likely to put you allin on a non-flush turn card, then you should lean towards raise allin on the flop.

[felson]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway -- does anyone have a good book to recommend for NL play? I'm starting to understand the theory from Ciaffone and Reuben, but I'd like to know more in depth. I've read SS but these aren't deep-stacked money games with weaktight players, so I'm not sure how well that advice applies.

[/ QUOTE ]

Harrington's new book is excellent, probably the single best thing for you to read right now. Lots of hand examples with short stacks. It's focused on tourneys, but most of the strategy carries over to short stacked cash games.

Ciaffone's Improve Your Poker.

Parts of Sklansky's tournament book.

[BobboFitos]

I've read a few replies, I dont want to repeat what anyone else has said, but here are my thoughts.

1. Your stack should be booted up to 25. It's essential if you think you're a winning player to have as much money on the table. It wont necessarily make decisions easier or harder, but if you can push an edge, it's better to push it with 25$ than with 20$.

Preflop:
I'm ok with raising AQs in MP after 2 limpers, but I've switched to mostly 6max where I never fail to raise with it from any position.
Really, you'd ideally pick up the pot there, or earn position on weak limpers with a moderate hand.

However, everyone calls, and the BB min raises it. (I think?) Warning bells should go off unless BB is a moron. I wont like my hand on alot of flops, but you should still see the flop given such a price.

Flop:

BB's bet is so weird I'm not sure what to make of it. If he minraised with QQ he's hoping to take it down without putting another cent in the pot, if he has KK he knows he's supposed to bet so he's enticing action, if he has AK he's happy, ( but should be more...) same with AA. Perhaps he min raises a few more hands? (AQ you have a freeroll...)

In any event, you do have a big draw. I see what you're trying to do here, just move it in, as you're only really behind K-K. I think that's fine.

I actually prefer calling here, though, because...
Your pot equity is huge, and the more people that are included the hand, your equity still doesn't really get hurt much. (Albeit the ace prolly wont be clean in a big pot)
So, by flatcalling, you allow others to tag along when they probably have no business in the pot, while you have 8 nut flush outs and 3 additional nut straight outs.

By calling, your plan for the FLOP becomes simple: You either want everyone to call, or have everyone call then someone min raise (or something like that) in order to be all in with a huge overlay. But that's wishful thinking. What probably will happen is you will call, and perhaps one more opponent will trail in after you. So -

if you chose to flatcall, you need to have a good plan for the turn!

I dont think if the turn blanks this opponent will suddenly rip a big bet, (one that you may or not be able to call, but with ~15 outs if ace is clean, you probably should call regardless) and your draw becomes weaker on the turn, so I would call again. If you hit, you might want to call again if there are players behind you, because I wouldn't be worried about someone filling up given the lack of opponent action on the flop.

Then on the river extract the max!


All that said, moving in the flop is simple, and I hope it worked.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
come on guys, if you're not willing to push here...

fim

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Hey fim, I'm normally in agreement with pushing on alot of these mega draws, but in this case I think the EV of smooth calling, ("slowplaying a nasty draw" I guess) is a little greater than raising all in.

I thin kthe big factor is that by moving in here you're cutting off a lot of players who'd potentially give you action with dominated draws.

Really though, it's tough to [censored] this hand up. The only mistake would be folding.