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  #1  
Old 12-21-2005, 02:11 PM
greenroom1 greenroom1 is offline
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Default AK UTG (super Tuesday)

Party Poker Super Tuesday 150+12

Field 1090 players to start
Down to 111 players
Money paid to 120 position

Blinds 300/600
I am sorry I don't have the converted hand history but it was fairly simple.

Hero (T8730) is UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Raises to 1800

Folded to Villian MP3 (T11230) who pushes all in.
Folded to Hero
No real reads on villian.


Do you call this all in?

It is most likely a race unless he is holding AA or KK.
It is unlikely that I have him dominated.

Is this the right place to lay AK down
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  #2  
Old 12-21-2005, 02:30 PM
Dave D Dave D is offline
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Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

I'd call. Like you said, the only thing you're really afraid of is AA/KK. That's simply unlikely. He could also have a worse ace than you, which is awesome for you. Winning this hand makes you a huge fav to get far.

The question is, why would someone with that many chips push like that? Why wouldn't AA/KK just call and see a flop, or maybe reraise. I guess it's possible its AA/Kk that wants you to call, but he has to know that you're likely to fold too.

With no reads I have to call here.

Would you lay down AA/KK here? Nope, so why lay down AK?
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  #3  
Old 12-21-2005, 03:21 PM
greenroom1 greenroom1 is offline
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Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

I agree that AA/KK is unlikely here but it is still about a 10% chance (1/220 X 10 X 2). I think only a really weak player would raise with AQs/AQ/AJs against a healthy EP raise. So it is about an 80% chance that I facing QQ or less. I guess races are part of the game, but I would prefer to get all my chip in the middle with an edge and I would rather have the pair in that situation.

The problem that I am having is that the money paid in the tourney seemed to improve quite a bit through the later stages. This is what I remember of the payout. So I figured calling was a coin flip for either breaking even or doubling up. I like finishing deep in the tourneys, but sometimes I think about being patient and waiting to finish deeper in the money. I called the bet and lost to pocket 10s.

120-101 - $162
100-81 - $220
80-61 - $340
60-41 - $450
40-31 - $550
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  #4  
Old 12-21-2005, 03:31 PM
greenroom1 greenroom1 is offline
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Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

Is my math correct for facing AA/KK when making a bet from UTG.

Odds of AA 1/220/hand
Odds of KK 1/220/hand

9 players

1/220 X 9 X 2 = 8 %


Pocket pairs occur 1/16 hands

Odds in facing one pair are 9/16 = 56%
Odds in facing PP QQs or less = 56%-8% = 48%

so when I make a raise from UTG there is a 56% a PP is out there. Using the same math there is a 28% chance that there will be two PP.

With the money scal as shown should I have limped in EP calling a modest raise. This seems passive, but I learning that AK is a difficult hand to play out of position.
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  #5  
Old 12-21-2005, 04:21 PM
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Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

Yea I would've called this as well. In fact I did make this call a while back in a $50 multi where we were just out ofthe money. This player made back to back all ins utg and utg+1. I was bb when he was utg+1 and called him with ak. He had 10s, I didn't improve and I was out. I was do it again if I had ti do it all over again.
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  #6  
Old 12-21-2005, 04:27 PM
nath nath is offline
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Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

My math says your pot odds are about 1.65 to 1 so this is a pretty easy call-- you need to be slightly less than 38% to make this a break-even play and you are probably better than that:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

678,072,384 games 1.000 secs 678,072,384 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.3923 % 27.16% 13.23% { AKo }
Hand 2: 59.6077 % 46.38% 13.23% { TT+, AKs, AKo }

even easier:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,047,930,048 games 1.484 secs 706,152,323 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.6516 % 39.52% 09.13% { AKo }
Hand 2: 51.3484 % 42.22% 09.13% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }


Limp-calling AK with these stack sizes is a terrible idea. Raise to try to take it down; if you are called or raised, play some poker. If you limp, it should be with the intent to limp-reraise all-in.
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  #7  
Old 12-21-2005, 05:07 PM
JohnG JohnG is offline
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Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

Getting about 3-2 pot odds, I normally call here. Probably also some chance of running into a hand like AQs. I would probably fold against a tight player that respects my raises.
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  #8  
Old 12-21-2005, 05:30 PM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

There are two things I do consistently that help me go deep in Supers. First, I do not play marginal hands immediately after the bubble. That's *marginal* hands. I'll play big ones. But there are enough short stacks who are going crazy that I avoid getting myself in tough decisions with marginal hands while they are busting out quickly. Second, when I have a big hand I will play it fully. And AK right after the bubble is a huge hand even against a bigger stack. I'd insta-call here unless I had a strong read that he would only do this with AA/KK (which is very unlikely).
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  #9  
Old 12-21-2005, 05:45 PM
Dave D Dave D is offline
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Location: Wake Forest University
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Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that AA/KK is unlikely here but it is still about a 10% chance (1/220 X 10 X 2).


[/ QUOTE ]

There's a 10% chance you'll get hit by a car or something tommorow. Doesn't mean you don't cross the street. You cant play AK scared of AA/KK.

[ QUOTE ]

I think only a really weak player would raise with AQs/AQ/AJs against a healthy EP raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, nope, not on party, not even in higher buy in tourneys. There's donks everywhere, even once you're in the money, and even towards the end. Once you're reasonably far in the money it's interesting how sometimes people just crack and do stupid things. Maybe the pressure gets to them, or they're tired, or they get too fancy. Regardless, wierd things can happen late in a tourney, even weirder than earlier parts.

Incidently, think about how badly villian played this hand in this situation. If he has AA/KK/QQ/AK why in the WORLD would you push back against a shorter stack? The only thing that calls you is something that beats you (probably), and most of the time people will fold w/o those 4 hands. So villian loses his chance to win lots of chips with a premium hand like basically 90% of the time here. It's awful. What if villian has a mid pair, that's even worse. Anyone with half a braincell is going to think "hmm, EP raise, he probably has a group 1", pushing means that you're probably gonna get called, and you're hoping for a coinflip at best. The best play here would be to just call. Short story is, people are dumb.

[ QUOTE ]

So it is about an 80% chance that I facing QQ or less. I guess races are part of the game, but I would prefer to get all my chip in the middle with an edge and I would rather have the pair in that situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's weak tight thinking. Villian could easily have AQ, AJ, KQ, or who knows what. This kind of raise implies that he's trying to steal or something. You DESTROY so much of his range, you can't be thinking about not wanting to race b/c there's soooo many other hands that you destroy here.

[ QUOTE ]

The problem that I am having is that the money paid in the tourney seemed to improve quite a bit through the later stages.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why you have to call. You need chips to get to the late stages. These tourneys have quickly escalating blind structures, which means you really have to take every possible EV+ situation you can get.
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  #10  
Old 12-21-2005, 06:05 PM
JohnG JohnG is offline
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Posts: 192
Default Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)

[ QUOTE ]
The best play here would be to just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not on the stated ratios.
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