couple hands from tonight

[Alobar]

my reads here suck, cuz im mindlessly watching TV and writing emails and paying like nowhere near enough attention

hand 1: only read I have is that I dont think MP sucks

I get JJ on the bottom, UTG limps, MP limps, 1 fold and I raise. SB 3 bets, bb folds, both limpers call, I cap, all call

Flop: Qs 6d 2d (I have no diamond)

its checked to be and I bet, sb calls, utg folds, mp calls

turn: Kc

checked to me and I check,

river:3s

SB bets, MP folds, I call

I checked the turn cuz I gave up and was intending to fold on the river. (to weak?) When MP folded the river, I convinced myself maybe he had TT or 99 or AJd or something and called :/

hand 2: Co is the guy from hand 1 who I didnt think sucked

I get AKo in the SB. UTG raise, MP calls, CO call, button folds, I 3 bet, bb folds, UTG and MP call, and now CO caps, all call.

flop: AK2r

I bet, UTG calls, MP calls, CO folds

turn: Q(completes the rainbow)

I bet, UTG raises, MP folds, I....???

[livinitup0]

I dont know if you can continue in hand one. I play it the same.
Hand two screams trips, or even stranger, maybe he thought that he would quazi-value bet preflop with 10Js, oooh thats yummy.
What limit is this?

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know if you can continue in hand one. I play it the same.
Hand two screams trips, or even stranger, maybe he thought that he would quazi-value bet preflop with 10Js, oooh thats yummy.
What limit is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

well I wasnt uer woried about the set cuz he didnt cap PF. so its either AQ or KQ or JT I thought. JT is more likely due to hand combinations, but less likely to have raised PF, plus im OOP.

these are at 5/10

[admiralfluff]

I wouldn't cap preflop in hand 1. If I did, I would either bet the turn, or give up, tending to bet.

For hand 2, I think you need to 3 bet and call down if capped.

some range estimates:


JTs 4
AA-QQ 1 (discounted-super unlikely to not get a cap from these PF)


AQ 6
AK 4
KQ 6
AJ-x 6ish (discounted-unlikely turn raise)

[TheKentock]

Hand 1: I can see value in a bet here. Although 2 overcards are out, it is very possible that SB has a smaller PP and MP has Axs. I think you can fold to a raise, so b/f is my call on the turn.

Hand 2: Raise it up on that turn, man! He has probably hit AQ or KQ now, which means you can milk him for it here. I call a cap and bet the river if a blank hits, calling a raise.

[xwillience]

Hand 1, you could bet the turn and fold to a check raise, your either way ahead or way behind here. No one showed any aggression on the flop or the turn so betting may take down the pot without seeing a river. He could have gotten fancy with a Q and could be waiting for your bet on the turn to raise it.

Hand 2, I like 3-betting the turn but that may be wrong. I think KQ is most likely here or split pot. Possible that he has a set of Aces more so than Queens i think. Queens would warrant a cap pre flop but only calling a three bet with aces can add some deception without giving up too much value. If its capped on the turn i would consider mucking it, but probably end up showing down for one bet on the river UI

[SparkyDog]

There's a lot of ways to play hand one, and I don't think that many are all that different EV wise from each other. I usually don't cap preflop but it's fine to do.

I'm not sure whether or not your original plan to check the turn and check/fold the river was too weak. I don't think it was. Regardless, I think it'd be better to either stick to the plan or just bet the turn and check behind on the river. When SB leads into a KQxxx flop after the turn gets checked through, I think he's got you beat more than 90% of the time.

Hand 2 I call down. Remember we're getting 10-1 or so on the turn, so we can see the river even if we know Villan has QQ. However, I don't think he'll cap with a worse hand if you 3bet, and he'll likely cap with QQ.

Let's roughly assume if we're ahead Villian has two outs, and if we're behind we have four outs. Also, if we improve we have implied odds for two bets on the river, and we'll call down if capped without improvement. Also assume that Villian has implied odds of about 2 bets when he improves. I'm rounding off the percentages to 10% and 5% of hero and villian improving while behind, respectively. I'm lazy and this is just a guesstimate anyways. X = chances of being ahead needed to profitably 3bet.

(.95)(2)(x) + (.10)(4)(1-x) + (.05)(-3)(x) + (.9)(-3)(1-x)

It works out to about 85%. Using combinations it's 43% that we're ahead, assuming Villian has AQ, KQ, or JT. I ignored AK since it's a chop.

Basically what this all boils down to is it's a lose two win one type of situation. I'd just call the raise and try for a C/R if I improved, check call if I didn't.

Hand1: I'd bet/fold the turn. By checking you're giving free cards to straight- and flushdraws.

Hand2: 3bet the turn and call down if capped.

[RunDownHouse]

It seems like in a lot of situations similar to hand one, people I never saw in the old HUSH are saying not to 3bet or cap hands like JJ and AQ preflop, while HUSH regulars take it for granted. JJ is an easy-peasy cap. You've likely got the best hand, there's at least on idiot along for the ride throwing his money in, and there will be a lot of flops where you are ahead but afraid that you aren't and so don't raise on later streets to make up for the lost equity preflop.

[i]EDIT: As for postflop, I hate it when I make a plan that is reasonable and probably good, and then don't follow it for whatever reason. I think giving up on the turn was ok, but you should stick with it. I don't think SB is bluffing into 2 opponents on the river. Hand two I 3bet the turn, call a cap, and c/c the river.

[Wynton]

Hand 1. We have no read on sb, but because he 3-bet pf, it's reasonable to assume he has at least 88+, AK, AQ or perhaps KQs.

I believe capping pf is perfectly reasonable; in fact, I think it's the default action without a read.

The post-flop problem is that, once you check the turn, you can't be sure that sb isn't betting the river with something like 10s or 9s, not out of a bluff, but because he believes his hand is actually best. Since he is an unknown, I have enough doubt about his hand to call the river bet. Don't think I like the river raise, because he'd probably fold with a worse hand and is not going to fold a better hand.