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  #11  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:18 PM
MrEngenic MrEngenic is offline
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Default Re: Quiz from Phil Gordon\'s website

I bet and 3bet this if it gets HU and I believe he can fold QQ and worse hands. If he puts you on a draw he will often put you on the flush draw as well so you have plenty of "outs" for taking the pot down on the turn or hitting your straight.
Check/folding is rediculous
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  #12  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:03 AM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Default Re: some mistakes and lots of math (long)

[ QUOTE ]

Folding here would be a substantial mistake in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe a mistake, but I don't think it's substantial.

I just made like the longest post ever and it got deleted. WTF. I'll try to do it again but simplify what I was going to say.

Firstly, the pot is giving us 7.5:2 if the first bettor calls, not 8.5:1, I don't know where Gordon is getting that from.

I'd estimate we have 7 outs, I typed like 3 paragraphs why, but that's what I got.

So, now we have to figure out what odds we are getting. Simply leaving the odds at 7.5:2 is wrong. If we weigh 3-betting at 20% and capping at 5%, our true odds become about 8.1:2.3 or 3.5:1.

So with 7 outs, we need 5.6:1 before implied odds, and are 2.1 SB short. We have to then multiply by 2.3 to find how many SB we need to make up and get 4.83 SB.

So the question becomes, can we make up 4.83 SB on average? We have to remember also to take reverse implied odds into the equation here. I think we can do it, but it will be close. Our position on the raiser makes it difficult for us to get multiple bets out of both opponents. On the other hand, the board texture makes it more likely our opponents will at least want to see the river.

If anybody can't follow the math, let me know and I will explain better.

Some will saying doing this math at the table is impossible, but I think you should always be able to get ballpark estimates on true odds and true outs.

For another example of this kind of math, I recommend checking out this post on GoT's blog.
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  #13  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:31 AM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Default Re: some mistakes and lots of math (long)

Gordon is including the $20 we would be putting into the $65 pot, and ignoring the additional $10 that will almost certainly be put in by the initial flop bettor.
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  #14  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:07 AM
hemstock hemstock is offline
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Default Re: Quiz from Phil Gordon\'s website

Fold if you hate money.
What if it goes, bet-call? Do you raise? Cause I would
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  #15  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:10 AM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Default Re: Quiz from Phil Gordon\'s website

[ QUOTE ]
What if it goes, bet-call? Do you raise? Cause I would

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think our FE is good enough on this board to do that and there's pretty much no other reason to do it.
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  #16  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:14 AM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Default Re: some mistakes and lots of math (long)

Something that I had written in my long post which I forgot to add is that we will sometimes have odds to call again on the turn. It gets pretty complicated then but since we've been taking safe estimations the whole way I think we should defenetely be calling.
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  #17  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:16 AM
hemstock hemstock is offline
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Default Re: Quiz from Phil Gordon\'s website

I thought we were Button so I'd raise for the free card.
But still, if you assume you have 8 full outs which is highly likely that you do, you do have an equity edge in raising the flop against 2 other players. Now being OOP is a different story which might be a good reason to just call + the fact that there are 2 hearts on the board.
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  #18  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:32 AM
ChuckyB ChuckyB is offline
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Default Re: Quiz from Phil Gordon\'s website

6 clean outs, 3.25:1 immediate odds ($65 in pot, $20 to call), and the played who opened the betting on the flop is still to act? Without any reads (as apparently is the case here), I fold.
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