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  #1  
Old 12-27-2005, 12:54 PM
AdamBragar AdamBragar is offline
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Default 2/4 NL- More folding

2/4 Full. I might seem somewhat agressive. But I doubt anyone is paying attention.

Folded to me UTG+1, I raise it to 16 (I've got 390) with 89 of hearts. A player in the CO who covers me calls. My read on him is that he is not afraid to play big pots and seems to play his hands strong. But that's about it.

Pot: 36ish
Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet 35, he calls

Pot: 100ish
Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet 75ish (????), he goes all in, I fold

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  #2  
Old 12-27-2005, 03:37 PM
aggie aggie is offline
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Default Re: 2/4 NL- More folding

I'm not folding this. Especially given your reads but even without any reads. Many people play a set, two pair, an overpair, or even TPTK this way. Just too many possibilities to let this one go in a heads up pot where you're getting almost 2-1.
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Old 12-27-2005, 03:45 PM
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Default Re: 2/4 NL- More folding

How much did he go all in for? Does he have you covered? What does "somewhat" aggressive mean?

It's not a bad fold, although I have a feeling you will be barked at for not taking a chance at what seems like a push. Here is the thing - with three diamonds on the board after a cold call on the flop, the logic of his play seems to indicate that he is chasing the flush. Either that, or he slow played a set AND he thinks you are aggressive enough to bet at this thing with less than the flush AND he thinks you might have a fourth diamond and wants to push you out. Also, he thinks you don't know this. But, with the second statement, I think there are too many assumptions and you don't know your player well enough.

I would advocate a smaller bets on the flop and turn. That way, if you really want to bet less than the pot, you can make it 50 on the turn and then get out. OR, you can bet the full pot at 75 and not appear weak, giving your opponent something to really think about if he is trying for a big time push representing the flush. By making a bet of "75ish" on the turn, after betting the pot on the flop, you look weak and give your opponent and opportunity to push with position on you. And then, the action is on you to make the really hard decision.

So, I suppose what I'm saying is that your bet on the turn was the biggest mistake here.

If you insist on betting fractions of the pot, I would question, why not a bet of 2/3rds the pot both times, so you can see where you are and save $$? If you are planning to fold to a push anyway, there is no need to be more each time. Given your game plan, you could have saved 16X BB here with some better pot management.

Overall, I probably fold too, unless you had some real hard read on him.
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Old 12-27-2005, 03:51 PM
aggie aggie is offline
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Default Re: 2/4 NL- More folding

[ QUOTE ]
I would advocate a smaller bets on the flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny, i'd advocate a small overbet on the turn to help protect hero's hand and to make it an easier call if villian pushes. I'd expect hero to be shown a made flush here ~50% of the time.
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  #5  
Old 12-27-2005, 04:11 PM
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Default Re: 2/4 NL- More folding

I would have a hard time folding this. I would really need to see how villain has been playing his hands, however. Some stats, whether he likes to push. You need a little more information here. Also, I think I said this before, but I would much rather see a pot sized bet on the turn than a weak 3/4th-ish one. But, if you know yourself and are going to be squeamish with a third diamond, then might as well be a little more conservative with the pot from the get-go.

Also, as to the possibilities of his hand, assuming your opponent is logical and has some respect for your game, you can narrow his hand down, at least beyond two pair.

One thing I don't advocate is overbetting on the turn to justify a call. Look - if you think that your opponent is on the flush and/or have no reads on him to believe otherwise, then putting more money in just to lose more money is a very unprofitable proposition.

When all is said and done, results would be appreciated.
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Old 12-27-2005, 05:44 PM
aggie aggie is offline
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Default Re: 2/4 NL- More folding

[ QUOTE ]

When all is said and done, results would be appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess would be that hero folded and did not see villians hand. It's irrelevant though. People can get way too hung up on results. Clearly sometimes hero is facing a flush and sometimes he's not.

What matters is the pot odds. Hero is getting slightly less than 2-1 on this pot. Granted, when hero calls and is ahead villian will usually have outs. My guess without doing any math is that hero needs to be ahead here 40% of the time to be correct in calling and i definitely think he will be. It all comes down to the simple fact that this is a heads up pot and it is very difficult to make a flush.
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Old 12-27-2005, 06:21 PM
xorbie xorbie is offline
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Default Re: 2/4 NL- More folding

Since hero loses about 20% when ahead, and wins never when behind, we need to be ahead here 40% of the time just about exactly. So good guess (it's like 41% to be more exact).
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  #8  
Old 12-27-2005, 06:45 PM
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Default Re: 2/4 NL- More folding

the way u played it u look like big pair to villian i dont think he can put u on str8 and so i think u might not want to fold herre
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