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  #11  
Old 12-24-2005, 03:22 AM
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

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By the way if you did raise the turn and the UTG calls, I would check the river unimproved, which means usually you will be investing 2BB no matter how you play this hand, but I would rather make the whole investme

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You are going to get a crying river call from QQ-TT way more often than you are saving yourself a bet the times he stopped pushing his AA.

Also, raising the turn wont protect you against a 5 outter, because he cant have a 5 outter here. Youve got his outs tainted by your flush draw (hed have the odds to call with a 5 outter anyway tho even if you did raise). Same with a gutshot, he doesnt have 4 outs to that, hes got 3.

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It is still possible for the SB to have a 5 outer on this board even with the hero's flush draw. An example would be if the SB hand Ah6c. It is also possible for the SB to have a 3 or 4 outer here also. If the hero just calls the turn the SB will be getting approx 14.5-1 to call, which means if the SB has a 3-5 outer he will be getting the proper odds to outdraw the hero. If the Hero raises the turn the SB will be getting 7.75-1 to call, meaning if the small blind has a 3 or 4 outer he cannot call profitably, and although he may have the implied odds to call if he has 5 outs, he may still incorrectly fold this draw. Becuz there's a chance the hero has the best hand, and this pot is huge, I dont think the hero can afford to let the small blind draw profitably if he has a 3 or 4 outer, nor can he afford to not try to pressure the SB to fold those rare times he has a 5 outer. If the hero is going to call down anyways, which I believe he should, he is much better off raising the turn and protecting his hand in this large pot. If he doesnt improve he can always check the river. If given the choice between calling down and raising the turn and checking the river unimproved, I believe the hero will be better off in the long run by making that 2bb investment right away on the turn. When the pot gets this big, and you have something like a vulnerable top pair type hand, protecting your hand is more important than any saving bets strategy IMO.

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so there is 2 hand combinations that have 5 outs (that make sense) its not even worth thinking about here when it comes to making a decision. Given that 3 outs is barely positve, I dont think arguing a raise for the sake of hand protection is worthwhile. I think arguing it in terms of value would be better. Charge sb to draw to his 6 outter or whatever, and get value out of UTGs QQ or whatever. I really hopew someone who is good at math drops by in this post, cuz I think the turn is basically just a math problem.

Also, again, taking the freeshowdown here is weak. If UTG doesnt fire back on the turn if you raise, you need to be betting this river if it blanks, not checking it behind. There is value in a bet.

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My discussion has been about comparing two strategies. Raising the turn and checking the river versus, calling down. I am just trying to point out why I think raising the turn and checking the river is better than calling down. Whether you believe the hero should fire another bet is fine, but that part is irrelevant to my discussion. Whether the hero should bet the river after he raises the turn is a whole other topic to me.

About you saying that any possible 5 outer is not worth thinking about, when the pot gets this large, every possible draw to beat the hero's hand should be considered. And I will say this one final time, If the hero just calls the turn, the SB will have an easy profitable call if he has 3-5 outs. If the hero raises the turn, the SB now can not call profitably if he has a 3 or 4 outer, and if the SB has a 5 outer he may still fold incorrectly. For these reasons alone, the hero should raise the turn. Whether this should be looked at as a protection raise or a value raise is not relevant to the point I am making. Raising the turn and checking the river, is better than calling down IMO for the reasons Ive stated 3 times now. As far as which line is better between raising the turn and checking the river or raising the turn and betting the river....I let someone else tackle that one.
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  #12  
Old 12-24-2005, 03:29 AM
Alex/Mugaaz Alex/Mugaaz is offline
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

How could calling ever be better than raising this turn? With the best hand you can get more in, you can protect against some draws, and if you're behind you will probably pay the same, the times you end up getting 3bet are probably countered by the time you flush up and get them to make a crying call they wouldnt have if the pot was smaller.
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  #13  
Old 12-24-2005, 03:31 AM
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

I cant resist, After a little thinking I think I have come to a conclusion about which line is better between, raising the turn and betting the river, or raising the turn and checking the river.
If I raised this turn and the UTG player called, I would check the river if i dont improve. Given the way the UTG player has played his hand preflop+flop he is verly likely to have a big over pair AA,KK,QQ. Since he just called the turn he cant have KK, so his most likely holdings are AA and QQ. Given that the hero is a 2-1 underdog against this range, I would check the river, now if you add in other hands like JJ or TT it would swing the river to a bet, but with no information on the villain, I would stick to my QQ-AA read and check the river.
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  #14  
Old 12-24-2005, 03:42 AM
Surfbullet Surfbullet is offline
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

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I cant resist, After a little thinking I think I have come to a conclusion about which line is better between, raising the turn and betting the river, or raising the turn and checking the river.
If I raised this turn and the UTG player called, I would check the river if i dont improve. Given the way the UTG player has played his hand preflop+flop he is verly likely to have a big over pair AA,KK,QQ. Since he just called the turn he cant have KK, so his most likely holdings are AA and QQ. Given that the hero is a 2-1 underdog against this range, I would check the river, now if you add in other hands like JJ or TT it would swing the river to a bet, but with no information on the villain, I would stick to my QQ-AA read and check the river.

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AA is 6 combos, KK is 1 combo, QQ is 3 combos, given that 2 kings and 1 queen are accounted for. We can discount KK because it inevitably 3bets the turn, and AA must be discounted b/c it will often 3bet the turn too because your hand is quite transparently a pair kings. If AA is discounted 50% then we're breakeven. Throw in some non-zero probability of JJ-TT and we've got ourselves a value bet IMO.

Surf
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  #15  
Old 12-24-2005, 04:00 AM
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

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I cant resist, After a little thinking I think I have come to a conclusion about which line is better between, raising the turn and betting the river, or raising the turn and checking the river.
If I raised this turn and the UTG player called, I would check the river if i dont improve. Given the way the UTG player has played his hand preflop+flop he is verly likely to have a big over pair AA,KK,QQ. Since he just called the turn he cant have KK, so his most likely holdings are AA and QQ. Given that the hero is a 2-1 underdog against this range, I would check the river, now if you add in other hands like JJ or TT it would swing the river to a bet, but with no information on the villain, I would stick to my QQ-AA read and check the river.

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AA is 6 combos, KK is 1 combo, QQ is 3 combos, given that 2 kings and 1 queen are accounted for. We can discount KK because it inevitably 3bets the turn, and AA must be discounted b/c it will often 3bet the turn too because your hand is quite transparently a pair kings. If AA is discounted 50% then we're breakeven. Throw in some non-zero probability of JJ-TT and we've got ourselves a value bet IMO.

Surf

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IMO, AA should not be discounted. I think there is a great chance the villain can have Aces. Lets rewind here, Jeff did 3 bet preflop, and cap the flop with apparent disregard to the villains preflop cap and flop aggression. From the villain's prespective Jeff has also represented a big overpair type hand like QQ-AA. If the villain has AA I can easily see him just calling Jeff's turn raise fearing Jeff has KK given the way Jeff has played preflop+flop. In fact, I would be more likely to discount QQ than AA here, since the villain may even fold QQ to Jeff's turn raise given all the aggression Jeff has showed thoughout this hand. Assuming the villain would not fold a hand like QQ, I still say that the probability that the villain has AA should not be discounted. And if I raised this turn and the villain called, AA would be the hand I would expect him to have most of time given the way the villain played preflop+flop.
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  #16  
Old 12-24-2005, 06:33 AM
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

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AA is 6 combos, KK is 1 combo, QQ is 3 combos, given that 2 kings and 1 queen are accounted for. We can discount KK because it inevitably 3bets the turn, and AA must be discounted b/c it will often 3bet the turn too because your hand is quite transparently a pair kings. If AA is discounted 50% then we're breakeven. Throw in some non-zero probability of JJ-TT and we've got ourselves a value bet IMO.

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50%s too heavy with the flop raise.
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  #17  
Old 12-24-2005, 08:01 AM
rory rory is offline
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

raise the turn.

you might have the best hand and if you get 3 bet, oh well, that is life and you have outs. got to try to make the SB fold in this huge pot.
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  #18  
Old 12-24-2005, 08:01 AM
Schneids Schneids is offline
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

Raise the turn, bet the river. By this point if he's decent it's quite likely he slows down with AA, and is definitely paying off with some worse hands. I think he's got TT a lot here too.

What I'm wondering though is if I'm villain and I have AA and you raise me on the turn, should I be 3-betting you given that I just said he should be paying off with worse hands. If villain should be paying off with QQ or TT, that should logically mean that he's beating enough hands with AA that 3-betting the turn with AA no longer looks like spewage. However, when this action occurs and I have TT-QQ, I feel like I'm never getting pushed the pot, which means I should be folding to your river bet, in which case if this is true it's better for you with your KQ to be calling the turn and calling the river (or betting if checked to).

So much to consider. For now, I'm gonna stick with raise the turn and bet the river. BTW, I rarely raise the flop since I find what happens for me too often is the blind folds and I get 3 bet. Or if the blind calls after I just call, it's with a hand he woulda called two cold with anyway (and this type of described blind is still calling two cold with AK or AQ).
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  #19  
Old 12-24-2005, 12:53 PM
Surfbullet Surfbullet is offline
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

It was late and i didn't realize hero capped the flop. I don't like the flop raise at all, and the cap is meh considering you're not getting him to fold his overpair unless the turn and river cards come K, A and he has TT-QQ so you're just more likely to isolate yourself with a neutral EV raise.

checking the river does look more appealing b/c he will slow down with AA, but that makes raising more appealing too b/c without a read he's not folding TT-QQ so there's plenty of value in a river bet.

Surf
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  #20  
Old 12-24-2005, 01:38 PM
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

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It was late and i didn't realize hero capped the flop. I don't like the flop raise at all, and the cap is meh considering you're not getting him to fold his overpair unless the turn and river cards come K, A and he has TT-QQ so you're just more likely to isolate yourself with a neutral EV raise.

checking the river does look more appealing b/c he will slow down with AA, but that makes raising more appealing too b/c without a read he's not folding TT-QQ so there's plenty of value in a river bet.

Surf

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Given the villains description(no strong lag read) and how he played this hand, I believe the probability of him having AA is higher than the probability of him having QQ,JJ,TT combined, which is why I would check the river unimproved.
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