AK UTG (super Tuesday)

[Dave D]

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The best play here would be to just call.

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Not on the stated ratios.

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If you're saying hero should fold, that's awful, and awful weak tight. Especially because we have no reads on villian. This is an easy call without thinking twice.

Wait wait don't tell me, AK is a "drawing hand" right?

[JohnG]

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If you're saying hero should fold, that's awful, and awful weak tight. Especially because we have no reads on villian. This is an easy call without thinking twice.

Wait wait don't tell me, AK is a "drawing hand" right?

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I have no idea what you are talking about.

I was replying to this passage:

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Incidently, think about how badly villian played this hand in this situation. If he has AA/KK/QQ/AK why in the WORLD would you push back against a shorter stack? The only thing that calls you is something that beats you (probably), and most of the time people will fold w/o those 4 hands. So villian loses his chance to win lots of chips with a premium hand like basically 90% of the time here. It's awful. What if villian has a mid pair, that's even worse. Anyone with half a braincell is going to think "hmm, EP raise, he probably has a group 1", pushing means that you're probably gonna get called, and you're hoping for a coinflip at best. The best play here would be to just call. Short story is, people are dumb.

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I took that to mean you thought the villains best play was to just call the UTG raise, which is what my reply addressed.

[Dave D]

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If you're saying hero should fold, that's awful, and awful weak tight. Especially because we have no reads on villian. This is an easy call without thinking twice.

Wait wait don't tell me, AK is a "drawing hand" right?

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I have no idea what you are talking about.

I was replying to this passage:

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Incidently, think about how badly villian played this hand in this situation. If he has AA/KK/QQ/AK why in the WORLD would you push back against a shorter stack? The only thing that calls you is something that beats you (probably), and most of the time people will fold w/o those 4 hands. So villian loses his chance to win lots of chips with a premium hand like basically 90% of the time here. It's awful. What if villian has a mid pair, that's even worse. Anyone with half a braincell is going to think "hmm, EP raise, he probably has a group 1", pushing means that you're probably gonna get called, and you're hoping for a coinflip at best. The best play here would be to just call. Short story is, people are dumb.

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I took that to mean you thought the villains best play was to just call the UTG raise, which is what my reply addressed.

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Ok yeah, i wasn't 100% sure what you meant, I couldn't find what you were quoting exactly. I'm not sure what you mean by ratios tho.

Now that we know villian had 10s things are a little different. The more I think about it, the more I like his play here, but *only* with tens. I would have just called with 9s (or maybe folded, its close), and I think I would have pushed back with Jacks. I call with Queens and up. The reason is, I want deception value, and I think I can extract more. Pushing back with a premium hand is just too likely to get a fold, and I'd rather slow down and try to make sure I can get him to commit a large part of his stack. And I can afford to do this with QQ, KK, AA, I'm not that worried about getting drawn out on heads up.

[JohnG]

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Ok yeah, i wasn't 100% sure what you meant, I couldn't find what you were quoting exactly. I'm not sure what you mean by ratios tho.

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The ratios are the stack sizes in relation to the bet size. In this case, hero had 8730 and raised to 1800, and villain had 11230. I don't think the villain calling 1800 is a good idea given those stack sizes.

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I would have just called with 9s (or maybe folded, its close)

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Calling sucks. Too high a price to call and try to hit a set, which means you only play if you think you have the best hand now. If you have the best, (but vulnerable hand in poor position), then calling doesn't make sense given the dead money in the pot in relation to the amount left to be bet. You need to play it committally or not play at all on those ratios.

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Pushing back with a premium hand is just too likely to get a fold,

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Isn't it reasonable to assume an UTG raise may be a strong enough hand to call an allin? Besides, increasing your stack by 20% plus without a fight is a mighty fine result. And that's the worse case scenario when re-raising allin holding a premium hand.

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and I'd rather slow down and try to make sure I can get him to commit a large part of his stack.

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The UTG player has already committed 20% of his stack, and has indicated strength. Seeing the flop may just scare him away when he otherwise would have committed it all preflop had you moved in. I know if I were in the UTGs shoes, I'd suspect a trap if the player calling a raise that size did not do so habitually.

I don't see any hand where calling for an amount approx 20% of the stacks in play is generally a good idea. Any hand worth playing is worth a re-raise, and given the ratios, that re-raise would be allin.

I can see just calling the UTG raise for an amount approx 12% of the stacks if holding something like JJ/QQ/AK in this actual spot. Normally, 10% would be my cutoff for just calling, but an exception can be made on borderline amounts here because an allin re-raise would probably not get action from hands that we bury.

[willie]

naw, i call this everytime

you're in the money and it's time to get up and go

the fact that you have AK lessens the chances of him holding aces or kings quite a bit.

only if you have a solid read that he has AA or kk should you let this go but i'm pretty sure wheni read the responses everyone is going to say that this is a call.

[Dave D]

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Ok yeah, i wasn't 100% sure what you meant, I couldn't find what you were quoting exactly. I'm not sure what you mean by ratios tho.

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The ratios are the stack sizes in relation to the bet size. In this case, hero had 8730 and raised to 1800, and villain had 11230. I don't think the villain calling 1800 is a good idea given those stack sizes.


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The stack sizes aren't really that important here. I'm advocating playing this hand with the intention of never folding. I plan on getting all my chips in at some point. The difference is that I believe b/c my hand is such a monster, I'm willing to let him hit the flop a little and/or look at the flop and decide he's safe. Ideally I'm thinking of a situation where villian has JJ and I have QQ and the flop comes 8T3r or something. That way villian pushes and I happily call. This is a little bit more risky of a strategy, but I think in the long run you'll win more chips. It's a personal preferance issue.

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I would have just called with 9s (or maybe folded, its close)

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Calling sucks. Too high a price to call and try to hit a set, which means you only play if you think you have the best hand now. If you have the best, (but vulnerable hand in poor position), then calling doesn't make sense given the dead money in the pot in relation to the amount left to be bet. You need to play it committally or not play at all on those ratios.


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Yeah, I agree. I'll usually fold 9s here on second thought. I guess if I had a player read I might try to play post flop, but yeah my default is to fold 9s and push 10s.

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Pushing back with a premium hand is just too likely to get a fold,

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Isn't it reasonable to assume an UTG raise may be a strong enough hand to call an allin?


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I think you're assuming waaaay too much intelligence for the avg player. We know to make that move, but the avg player doesn't. The avg player (or indeed, some people here, focault posted a hand where he raised KQ UTG) will raise more hands there than you might think. Also, a lot of players will be smart enough to fold correctly to an all in with KQ. I know that personally I would raise AQs UTG, but I wouldn't call a push there. My point is that I want villian to hit his Q on a Q58 flop when I have KK.


and I'd rather slow down and try to make sure I can get him to commit a large part of his stack

[juris]

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There are two things I do consistently that help me go deep in Supers. First, I do not play marginal hands immediately after the bubble. That's *marginal* hands. I'll play big ones. But there are enough short stacks who are going crazy that I avoid getting myself in tough decisions with marginal hands while they are busting out quickly. Second, when I have a big hand I will play it fully. And AK right after the bubble is a huge hand even against a bigger stack. I'd insta-call here unless I had a strong read that he would only do this with AA/KK (which is very unlikely).

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This is pretty much my thoughts except he said it better.

[MrX]

This is a hand shortly after the bubble burst. People have a lot of bottled up agggression and often push all sorts of hands in the first 20 minutes after they reach the money. I have seen many reraise pushes with AXs, KQs, JTs, any pocket pair, and some other strange hands in the level after the bubble breaks. This is a relatively easy call IMO.

X

[greenroom1]

I really appreciate all the feedback. I did call the all in and lost to pocket 10s finishing 110th place. I agree with many of the comments about playing too tight and passive. I would rather push with AK than call, but I think given the situation calling here made sense. I sometimes second guess myself, because I want to finish as deep as I can in the MTTs. When I made the call I figured it was going to be a race and I was happy I didn't see AA or KK.

Green

[reecelights]

There is a 1 in 11 chance someone at your table has AA/KK without knowing any other cards. You took away two cards that give him those options. Instead of 6 ways to make AA or KK, he now has 3, making the possibility he has AA or KK go from your 10% assumption to 5% and of that 5% he has AA 2.5% and KK 2.5%

AK beats AA 13% or .325 out of 2.5 times
AK beats KK 34% or .85 out of 2.5 times
You win against AA or KK 1.175 out of 5 times, meaning there is only a 3.825% chance he has AA or KK and you lose to it.

You are more likely against a smaller pair. Call, take your chances and double up.