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  #1  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:00 PM
Exsubmariner Exsubmariner is offline
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Default God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

I am writing here prompted by two things. The first of which were my obviously scandelous questions about the grim meat hook realities of internet tournament poker, especially large fields. And secondly because the 1-Table Tournaments forum addresses these questions in their FAQ and this forum does not.

We learn in the SNG FAQ's that the best you can expect to do on the long haul is about 40% ITM and a return of 15%-20% depending on if you have 9 or 10 players.

So let's imagine that you are God's gift to large field internet tournaments.

-What can you expect to be your ITM%?
-What can you expect to be your ROI?
-What percentage of time would you expect to make the final table?
-What percentage of time would you expect to win?

I have done some research on this in the past and the best I can come up with is that in moderately sized Internet tournaments the ITM of a good poker player is expected to be in the 5% range. I cannot remember exactly about the ROI%.

However, to my knowledge, and it could just be because I am a noob in these parts, there is no real math out there about fields of 3000-7000 players.

This would also be handy to know if you wanted to ever say, one day, play the WSOP. It's true that Raymer is a good player. He has proven that on the poker circuit, IMO and that he deserved to win his title and get a high placing the next year. But even being such a superb player, is it possible that he was just exceptionally lucky as well in the face of such hordes?

This should be on the minds of a lot of posters out there. I think it needs to be discussed by the finest 2+2 can offer. There are who knows how many serious poker players out there willing to plunk down $215 every week in the Stars 500K guarantee and while this is not a lot of money nor is it a significant portion of any serious players roll, it does add up. Imagine 100 weeks of never making it ITM. Thats $21,500. Imagine 300 weeks.

That's enough for a down payment on a pretty nice house in some parts of the country. It's significant. I'm not trying to encourage or discourage anyone in any way here. I just want a discussion about what we really are getting ourselves into when we enter one of these type events.

Discuss?
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  #2  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:05 PM
Jurollo Jurollo is offline
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

The reason you see this sort of info readily available in the SNG forum and not here is purely logistics. You are asking questions about MTTs that by tournament play's very nature make them unanswerable long term. MTTs are a quirky little thing because in a lifetime, especially before the internet, players would maybe win lots of money but still not have significant mathematical data to prove that they are a long term winner. Even with the internet I would venture to guess that very few posters here can make such assertions about the 'long term' and have actual substantiated mathematical proof. The reason SNGs are different is because a player can play 24 in one hour and over the course of a few months collect enough data to be fairly close to a long term ROI. This is simply a disclaimer to you that you likely won't find what you are looking for here.
~Justin
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  #3  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:12 PM
reecelights reecelights is offline
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

There can be no "expectation" because styles and skills of different players vary so greatly.

A player could have a 5% ITM and 2000% ROI or could be like me until last week and have a 23.4% ITM and a -6% ROI.

Multis are not as formulaic and have far more variables than do SNGs.
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Old 12-12-2005, 02:14 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

[ QUOTE ]
moderately sized Internet tournaments the ITM of a good poker player is expected to be in the 5% range

[/ QUOTE ]

Typical tournaments pay out to 10% of the field.

These number are really pretty useless anyway. By the time you have played enough tournaments to be able to look at your numbers with any reasonable sense of confidence, you will be well beyond the point where general guidelines are useful anyway.
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  #5  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:20 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

[ QUOTE ]
By the time you have played enough tournaments to be able to look at your numbers with any reasonable sense of confidence, you will be well beyond the point where general guidelines are useful anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know... i'd be curious whether a great player is absolutely slaughtering me in terms of results or if s/he just thumps me solidly.
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  #6  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:24 PM
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

Just play each hand perfectly or learn from it when you don't. You will benefit far more by working on your game then worrying about ROI and ITM for MTTs.
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  #7  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:26 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

[ QUOTE ]
Just play each hand perfectly or learn from it when you don't. You will benefit far more by working on your game then worrying about ROI and ITM for MTTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate the quick reply.
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  #8  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:32 PM
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

I think in Tournament Poker for advanced players by Sklansky, he says that a tournament pro could have up to a 5X (500% ROI) edge on the competition (maybe I'm not remembering correctly though). I think this is likely true in live play with generous blind structures. I've played in a few live tourneys and people either suck or have no idea how to adjust to tournaments as most of the better/tight players are way too tight.

In online tourneys I think that your edge is likely decrease due to the fact that overall the blinds escalate a little more quickly, and the play is more aggressive, and overall the play is a little better. But I would guess that a 2+2'er should still have at least a 1.5-2X edge over the competition (50-100% ROI). That's just kind of ballpark figure and could easily be more or less. But I have not played a ton of the bigger buyin events so your edge might not be quite as good there. I think the rest of your questions could easily be answered if you knew what kind of edge you have, but I think that you're never going to play enough tourneys to know what your edge truly is.
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  #9  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:36 PM
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

What do you want with these questions? "Oh, to be considered a successful MTT player, the minimum ROI% is 10%." You need to (IMO) find out how much ROI you WANT to make, and go for it.

NOTHING in poker is absolute. I'm sure you know this. If you're trying to guage how good you are with other players' returns, you're going to either set your standards too high or too low. Find out what you want to achieve, and work until you do. Good luck.
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  #10  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:42 PM
yvesaint yvesaint is offline
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Default Re: God As He Moves Across The Face Of Internet Touranments

God speaking, your ITM should be 15.423% and your ROI should be 154.365%. You should make the final table of a 3000-7000 field 4.259% of the time and you should win .854% of the time.

Thank me,

God.
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