Hand reading Exercise

[Diplomat]

Hi Mason,

He has no pair; he would have show his hand.

Same goes for Jack or Ten high -- I think he might have flipped over his hand, on the off-chance you had raised with something like 89s or whatever, trying to isolate the early position player and make a play on them.

So the turbo-muck on the river must mean something that is total crap. I'd venture a guess at a tiny suited hand, suited in line with one of the cards on the board; something like 57 of diamonds, clubs or spades. More likely would be something like 34 or 45 suited, which gives him a backdoor shot at picking up a flush and/or straight draw. (the ace acting as a wheel card)

I'll guess 34s, with the suits either spades, clubs, or diamonds.

-Diplomat

[Franchise (TTT)]

I guess I'm in the minority in that I put him on some sort of weakly played pocket pair, maybe 99. All the overcards hitting made him lose confidence in the hand, seeing as you had to have something to bet the flop.

[tpir90036]

had he not conceded the pot i would have set 88 or 77. him conceding the pot makes it obvious he had nothing to show down at all.... so my vote would be for some crappy connector that went nowhere...put me down for 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Duke]

34c

[eugeneel]

I think exactly the same thing. I think we have this one figured out!

He may have been aiming fo a checkraise if the turn made his hand into an openended straight or a flush draw.
Poor play no matter how one lookes at it.

[Mike Gallo]

So again the question is, what was his hand?

Mason,

I do not know what he could have had that he would call a preflop raise and a flop bet with and then not even showdown.

I would put him on a pocket pair smaller than yours. Although I do not play 30-60 I just cannot believe someone would play 6-8 for a raise.

Did you get to see what he had?

[doggin]

I put him on 9 J, but I'd like to know, if he had bet the turn, what would you have done?
Thanks

[Josh W]

What do we know about the big blind? We know that in the evening, he just sat down. That's about it.

We can, therefore, safely assume, that he just came from dinner. He also is not a local, as Mason doesn't know him.

Okay...just came from dinner, and from out of town. This was during the middle of the week, so he's likely not just vacationing, but maybe in town for a conference.

So, it's pretty obvious he's not a bigtime player. He's an out-of-towner, there for fun.

He sits down, and immediately picks up pocket aces, red. He knows this is a good hand, because he's smart enough to be attending a conference. He recognizes Mason, and thinks "I'm just gonna outplay him, this hand". Well, he flops a fantasy, and knows he should wait to the turn to raise. Since Mason bet the flop, and a big card came on the turn, he knows that Mason will surely bet the turn. Afterall, Mason raised preflop and bet the flop, so a turn bet will definitely follow.

When Mason tricks the BB by checking, he (the BB) knows that Mason will SURELY bet on the river....either as a value bluff or a bet (errr, value bet or a bluff). Mason checks again.

Our friend the tourist at a conference recognizes he's been thoroughly outplayed. He knows that he should have won much more with this hand, and he knows that he isn't playing for money, but for taking shots at the greats of the game.

And he knows that the shame he'll endure by tabling his cards just isn't worth this menial little pot. So he mucks, face down, to save face.

And his hand was good.

Josh

[Duke]

No wonder Mason's been running well for so long.

I think perhaps he had the same 2 tens that Mason did, being the God of Gamblers and all. If he showed, well, everyone would know that he could make the cards change and then he'd get banned from the game.

~D

[mikelow]

A small pocket pair, IMO. Would he call the flop with J-9, needing runner-runner (or a jack?) Doubtful, as I'm not sure a jack is an out (as it turns out, it is).

So I'm putting him on something like pocket threes.