#1
|
|||
|
|||
When do you know if you are a long-term winning player?
so i have been playing 3/6 full ring, but mostly 5/10 6 max at Party. my BB/100 is about 2 over the course of 50k+ hands. i was just wondering if anyone has an idea about when variance has been exhausted (or mostly exhausted) and at what point a player can be called a long-term winning player. Is there a standard range of hands for this type of thing?
|
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When do you know if you are a long-term winning player?
Without knowing anything else, I think once you get to 200K hands and are still above 2, you can be pretty confident. I hate Jason Sasser.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When do you know if you are a long-term winning player?
I dunno, I've been constructing a confidance interval using our sample mean and st. deviation.
Over 15k hands I'm 98.4% confidant my true mean lies over 0.0 BB/100 and 81.3% confidant my true mean is 2.0 BB/100 or more (I've been running goot). So seems like much less than 200k hands is needed to make conjectures about this, am I missing something? |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When do you know if you are a long-term winning player?
[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, I've been constructing a confidance interval using our sample mean and st. deviation. Over 15k hands I'm 98.4% confidant my true mean lies over 0.0 BB/100 and 81.3% confidant my true mean is 2.0 BB/100 or more (I've been running goot). So seems like much less than 200k hands is needed to make conjectures about this, am I missing something? [/ QUOTE ] Nope. You may need 200k hands to know your winrate with 0.5BB or so, but you typically need much fewer hands to know whether you're a winning player or not. Of course there's a big difference between being a trivial winner (0.1BB/100) and a non-trivial winner (I'd put it at 1BB/100). |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When do you know if you are a long-term winning player?
I think you can also just know.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When do you know if you are a long-term winning player?
when i say so
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When do you know if you are a long-term winning player?
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When do you know if you are a long-term winning player?
When they pry your mouse out of your cold, dead hand, if the numebr in Pokertracker is green you are a winning player. Or do all this pu$$y math crap, you know, whatever.
|
|
|