interesting nut flush draw

Party 30/60, 8 handed

I raise from 3rd position w/ KdQc, button cold calls, no stats bb is 31/14/1.16 and 3 bets, we call. flop is AT5, all diamonds, bb bets out, where do we go from here??

I would raise the flop. You have a big draw here. You have 12 outs to beat AK or KK, 15 outs to beat QQ with no diamond,14 outs to beat QQ with a diamond, and 15 outs to beat any JJ. You are a favorite to beat QQs or JJs by the river, and a small underdog against AK or KK. It is also possible that your flop raise may induce the villain to fold a better hand like JJ-KK without a diamond on the flop or turn. I admit this possibility is small but it is nonetheless an important factor of why I would raise the flop. As far as the button, you dont really mind if he calls or folds. If he folds the probabilty of you winning the pot has increased since he couldve had some hands that blocked your outs against the BB. A hand like KT,QT,QJ ,or KJ. If the the button calls, you dont mind since you will now be getting 2-1 on your raise, and you are less than a 2-1 underdog to have the best hand by the river.

here is my thinking, and correct me if I'm wrong.... like u said, the bb likely has a solid hand here, and is most likely not folding no matter what (small possibility, but remote).....w/ that being said, since I'm probably not going 2 get him 2 fold, I'm thinking of just calling here and waiting to see what happens on the turn, because if the button raises here, I like that even better.... I don't mind anyone 3 betting or even capping this pot, I just don't want to push out possible bets that I could have gotten from the button later on in the hand, is this wrong?

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here is my thinking, and correct me if I'm wrong.... like u said, the bb likely has a solid hand here, and is most likely not folding no matter what (small possibility, but remote).....w/ that being said, since I'm probably not going 2 get him 2 fold, I'm thinking of just calling here and waiting to see what happens on the turn, because if the button raises here, I like that even better.... I don't mind anyone 3 betting or even capping this pot, I just don't want to push out possible bets that I could have gotten from the button later on in the hand, is this wrong?

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Even if we assume the BB will never fold a better hand a lot of good things can happen if you raise in this spot.

1) If the button folds, and the BB just calls, you may get to take a free card on the turn

2) The button may call your raise, and the BB also calls. Since you are getting 2-1 on your raise and you are less than a 2-1 dog to have the best hand by the river, you just made money here.

3) The button calls, the BB 3 bets. If you just call, the button will probably call. Now youve made even more money since 3 small bets went in by 2 different people and your less than a 2-1 dog, so this is an extention of #2

4) The button calls, the BB 3 bets, you cap, the button calls, the BB calls. Or any other way your flop raise may lead to a capped 3 way pot. This is the best possible situation for you as you are getting the most money possible in the pot from 2 opponents when you are less than a 2-1 dog to have the best hand by the river. This is another extention of #2.

5) Your flop raise may induce the button to fold KQ,KJ, KT,QT,QJ. This would be very good for you holding as it may free up some of your outs against the BB. So in this case your flop raise may increase the probabilty of winning this large pot by a small percentage, and small percentages are very important when the pot gets large.

Now if you throw in the small possibility that the BB will fold a better hand like JJ-KK without a diamond on the flop or turn, maybe 1-5% of the time, then raising the flop becomes the clear right play IMO.

To answer your question of is your thinking wrong? If you assume the BB will never fold a better hand then your thinking looks right, calling is probably better than raising, but its closer than it looks for the 5 reasons I listed.

good point, well taken.... in the past I would call here the vast majority of the time w/ the occasional raise thrown in to switch things up..... I think this will reverse my plays in the future... thanks