I have third pair and get raised on the turn

silkyslim · #1 10-08-2005, 02:33 PM

Villian is a TAZ. He is capable of semi-bluffing. He raises me when the board pairs, which is suspect. But there is also a king. So is the right play to call this down, or fold and go on to the next hand?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
6 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, CO calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero ??

#2 10-08-2005, 02:44 PM

You have a tough decision here. Do you think if you spike a ten it would be good? T/A is a very dangerous player if you are using the default labeler in PT. I think this is exactly where you should stop and decide your plan. Fold or call then c/c the river. I would call and c/c the river simply because of the aggressive nature of the villian. I also take hands too far, so the prudent play would be to fold to the raise.

#3 10-08-2005, 02:44 PM

I really want to call this. But the pot is pretty small. Lay this one down and take a stand in a bigger pot. If he is semi-bluffing this, your laydown will just encourage him to do it again, and that seems OK as long as you are prepared to fight him later with a marginal hand with more money at stake.

silkyslim · #4 10-08-2005, 02:50 PM

I think i can call and fold the river UI. I can hit a J and a T. thats 6 outs, getting 6-1 plus he will pay me off on the river plus a call is good for my image plus he may be FOS. But I dont think its good enough to go to a showdown with if he bets the river again. Thoughts?

#5 10-08-2005, 02:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think i can call and fold the river UI. I can hit a J and a T. thats 6 outs, getting 6-1 plus he will pay me off on the river plus a call is good for my image plus he may be FOS. But I dont think its good enough to go to a showdown with if he bets the river again. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. If you don't hit the J(best case) or the 10, I think you have to call the river for one more BB.

#6 10-08-2005, 02:58 PM

I wouldn't give yourself a full 6 outs here. Villain might have picked up a flush draw and decided to semi-bluff making the Jh and Th questionable outs.

#7 10-08-2005, 03:00 PM

Duh, pair on the board. J is good but Th still questionable

#8 10-08-2005, 03:04 PM

If you call the turn and hit your straight, are you going to bet/call or checkraise? What happens if you hit your jack?

I think you should probably discount to 4 1/2 outs, as your straight isn't always going to be good and neither is your set. With that in mind, you're getting about 6:1 pot odds on a 10:1 call on the turn, with the idea that you'll make up at least one bet on the river. Maybe two, but I'm not convinced of that.

And if he's raising the turn, I think he bets the river, even with a pair of 9s or less. If you're going to get less than ideal odds to chase here on the turn, you need to call this river to pick off the bluff.

Math:
On the draw: Winning 7 BB 1 out of 10 times. Losing 1 BB 9 out of 10 times, for a net of -.2 BB/hand.
Picking off a bluff: you lose .2 BB on the turn and 1 BB on the river if you call every time. To break even, you need to have the best hand, UI, a bit less than 1/7th of the time (8 BB * 1 > 1.2 BB * 6.)

It seems you'll have the best hand at least 1/7th of the time. I change my earlier opinion - you should call the turn and the river.

RyGreen18 · #9 10-08-2005, 03:05 PM

this is a spot that i fold more and more in, even against aggressive opponents. i need a very specific read (that villain is capable of bluff-raising when the board pairs) to call this down, and you say that you have this read on him, so given that, im calling down. against most opponents, though, im expecting to see trip Q's

silkyslim · #10 10-08-2005, 03:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think i can call and fold the river UI. I can hit a J and a T. thats 6 outs, getting 6-1 plus he will pay me off on the river plus a call is good for my image plus he may be FOS. But I dont think its good enough to go to a showdown with if he bets the river again. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
consensus is to get to showdown against this particular type of player.