I hate small pots (QJo)

ElAnimal · #1 06-23-2005, 11:45 AM

I've only got 10 hands on UTG and UTG+2 but they've both got VPIPs around 70% with postflop aggression under 1.00.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 4 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero...

The pot is pathetic and I have no clue which outs (if any) are clean. A king is probably good, but a split is a real possibility. Sklansky and the gang are always warning against one-card flush draws less than the second nut, which is what I have here, though since nobody bet the flop I doubt anybody has the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. There's also the chance I still have the best hand. I need to believe I have what amounts to 7 outs or the best hand to try to win this pocket change. I have a feeling I'm going to hear "are you nuts? Call." Is that about right?

Borno · #2 06-23-2005, 11:49 AM

I call. UTG may be trying to steal.. you're looking pretty good. I might fold on the end.. depends on action. If UTG bets again I pay off...

toss · #3 06-23-2005, 11:54 AM

Hmmm, I would raise. I think UTG donkbet with a onecard lfush and UTG+2 is calling with who knows what. I'm checking behind on the river if possible unless the river is a non[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K or Q.

Sasnak · #4 06-23-2005, 11:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, I would raise. I think UTG donkbet with a onecard lfush and UTG+2 is calling with who knows what. I'm checking behind on the river if possible unless the river is a non[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K or Q.

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Why not peel one off here? With a raise here do you fold to a 3 bet?

crunchy1 · #5 06-23-2005, 12:02 PM

If you've only got 10 hands on each of these Villians are they from this session? Aside from stats what have you seen them do in those ten hands. You've seen them play 7 of them - are they going to showdown a lot and with what? Are they folding on the turn? I know ten hands isn't really a solid read - but little non-statistical details like this can at least provide some decent info on how they're playing in this current subset of hands.

If I had any feeling that they were weak post-flop players I'd be raising PF to knock out the blinds and isolate them. The whole hand would play differently then.

As it is my approximating calculations give you about 7 outs getting a little less than 4-to-1 (w/implied odds). This might seem low but I'm not calculating a river raise. I'm not sure any of your outs are clean enough to raise the river if you hit a Q, K, or diamond after a LP leads the turn.

Close decision. I'm not sure that there's a huge difference in the long run between calling and folding.

toss · #6 06-23-2005, 12:02 PM

Nah pot would be too big to fold.

I like raising since we can see a showdown esier. What happens if the river is a blank and UTG bets again? Wouldn't it be enticing to showdown there since you're closing the action and the pot will be like 7-8BB large? You'd think, "theres gotta be a chance my hand is good 12.5% of the time here."

crunchy1 · #7 06-23-2005, 12:05 PM

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Hmmm, I would raise.

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I like this too under the following two conditions:

(A) Hero folds to a turn 3-bet
(B) Hero checks behind on the river as per your condition (bet a river non-diamond K/Q)

toss · #8 06-23-2005, 12:06 PM

Come on ten hands is nothing. The only read I would rely on in ten hands is how villain played a previous hand. Like he capped 27o all streets then I would classify him as a LAG. Even this isn't for sure since he may feel like donking for one hand.

thejameser · #9 06-23-2005, 12:06 PM

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Hmmm, I would raise.

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I like this too under the following two conditions:

(A) Hero folds to a turn 3-bet
(B) Hero checks behind on the river as per your condition (bet a river non-diamond K/Q)

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ty for saving me the typing

crunchy1 · #10 06-23-2005, 12:08 PM

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Come on ten hands is nothing.

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I agree. But if in 10 hands Hero has seen them play 7 - then there's certainly some good information about how they play that's become available.