Phoenix Open 3rd round matchups (ytd 8-8-3 +0.31 units)

[judgesmails]

Robert Gamez +100 vs. Tom Pernice Jr.
Shawn Micheel +125 vs. Kenny Perry

Both wagers one unit, line at Pinnacle.
3rd round scores only.

[eric5148]

I think your way off on these. Tom Pernice is usually underrated.

But it's not as bad betting on Micheel. Best finish in this event is T58. Perry has a T2 and a T6 within the last 5 years. Micheel is a mediocre player at best.

Here's my bets, berate them as you see fit. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Ames over Parnevik -130
Lehman over Cink +107
Flesch over Toms +145

[judgesmails]

I hope you win your bets as they have no relation to my picks.

I seem to get a lot of contrary opinion to my matchup picks most weeks. I am not sure if it is because I usually pick underdogs, or because my picks really suck. So far, the record is about 50/50.

Let me explain my method for my matchup picks. I analyze the course each week and determine what type of players have the best chance to succeeed (i.e. long drivers, straight drivers, high GIR, good putting, high # of birdies, etc.),and of course I look at historical performance for players on the particular course.

I analyze tourney matchups first, usually hoping to find an undervalued younger player matched up against an older, better know player.

For single round matchups I look to bet against players who shoot really low the previous day and with players who I think played well and maybe did not putt well the day before.

I rarely bet on favorites - as the edge in golf is very small. There should be enough positive EV bets taking dogs.

I look at a few other things, but they are relatively minor.