9's vs. potential river steal and one overcard

[phuc]

Pokerstars $2/$4 NL. I'm UTG+1 with 99. Table seems fairly unexciting...not too passive or aggressive, not too loose or tight. I decide to limp and go for set value. Cutoff raises to $12. SB folds, BB calls. I call. No real reads on anyone.

Flop comes T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Pot is $38.

BB checks. Since there is no draw, I decide to I lead the flop for $20. If the CO calls, I think I may be beat and may give up the hand since there are no real draws out there that I can imagine he would be after. Of course, I'm folding to a raise. CO (preflop raiser) smooth-calls. BB folds. I don't like it that much. I guess he may have an overpair and just wants me to bet it for him (or he has AK and is dumb and is calling to hit an A or K).

Turn comes 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] giving me a gutshot in addition to my pair. Pot is $78.

I check. CO checks behind me. Maybe I was wrong in thinking he has an overpair.

River comes 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Pot is still $78.

In my head, my options are to bet (since he won't be able to call much with that board unless he has a set or straight) or check/call depending on his bet size. I figure that the first option is not good since I will only get a call if I'm beat and the second option gives him a chance to bluff. I check. He bets $35.

Easy call, right? I'm working on a lot of holes and this is one area that I'm not always sure about. What hands could he have here?

What if he bets the pot or three-quarters of the pot on the river?

Also, what if he bets half-pot on the turn? Easy fold?

Results to come...

I call, expecting to pay off AT.

[Aloysius]

AT? Is he capable of raising in CO with AT?

As the hand was played, getting about 2.5 to 1 I think it's an auto-call on the river. I'm also trying to improve my hand reading, but I imo, based on his likely range of hands, 2 overs very possible dictates a call.

I think you needed to fire a 2nd barrel on the turn. I think if you check and he bet the turn you'd have to concede the pot.

(BTW, the river bet as hand was played also feels like a value bet - did he show you pocket 7s?)

[kongo_totte]

I'd lead for a little more on the flop. Over cards might call that and put you in an awkward spot. Call the river. Well played.

[phuc]

[ QUOTE ]
AT? Is he capable of raising in CO with AT?

As the hand was played, getting about 2.5 to 1 I think it's an auto-call on the river. I'm also trying to improve my hand reading, but I imo, based on his likely range of hands, 2 overs very possible dictates a call.

I think you needed to fire a 2nd barrel on the turn. I think if you check and he bet the turn you'd have to concede the pot.

(BTW, the river bet as hand was played also feels like a value bet - did he show you pocket 7s?)

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said, no real reads on the raiser, but do you really think AT can check behind on the turn here? I'm not sure that's a good idea.

[phuc]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd lead for a little more on the flop. Over cards might call that and put you in an awkward spot. Call the river. Well played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so I'm getting mixed signals here. One person says I should bet the turn. Another says I played it fine except the flop bet should have been bigger? I'm not sure I like betting the turn. If he calls the turn, am I auto check-folding the river? I figure that if I'm ahead, one free card won't hurt me that much (unless he's got two overs) and I can keep the pot small in case I'm behind. Also, aren't I inducing a bluff on the river the way I played it so I should expect to win the way it played out?

[Aloysius]

I agree with leading more on the flop to discourage / charge overcards. If he called the a strong flop bet, I would not bet the turn.

As the hand was played, I would bet the turn if I put him on overcards or a small pair (based on the way the hand was played, I might).