Fold this turn?

[chucksim]

Anyone do anything different here? Is not folding the turn a leak? He seems to be screaming K, but I can't be too sure, can I?

Villian plays a lot of hands, but tends to be on the passive side. Not at the table for 2 orbits, though, so read isn't that solid.

Am I forced to pay this off?

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB.

[DeuceHigh80]

I would call this down. If he's holding a king you lose 2 more big bets. If he's holding a weaker ace or some other bizarre holding you win 8. He only has to be holding an ace a little more than one time in 4 for this to be +EV.

(this could be a mistake but I discount him holding a 4 so I don't worry about the board pairing a second time -- he got aggressive on the turn when only one 4 was showing)

I maybe giving the random bad player too much credit, but absent a strong read I think he's raising a weaker ace maybe even a third to half the time here -- the odds of him having either a K or A are the same, and A would seem to be slighly more likely for a cold call pre-flop.

I'm check calling the flop. I'm not gonna lead.
I'm just gonna act like I'm slow playing AK

If its checked through on the flop. I lead turn and fold to a raise out a K or A its tough to raise the turn unless your a maniac. Unless you have a read otherwise the raise is probably real.

If its bet flop I check/call - ck/call especially since its HeadUp

Ultimately - I'm treating it WA/WB

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm check calling the flop. I'm not gonna lead.
I'm just gonna act like I'm slow playing AK


[/ QUOTE ]

ugh don't play scared, very easy flop bet

easy turn bet against a loose-passive player, checking just gives him a free shot with 77 or spades or whatever, and passive players don't bluff-raise much, so the turn raise is a K way more than 75% of the time

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Ultimately - I'm treating it WA/WB

[/ QUOTE ]
and you're hardly ever way behind

[ QUOTE ]
I maybe giving the random bad player too much credit, but absent a strong read I think he's raising a weaker ace maybe even a third to half the time here --the odds of him having either a K or A are the same, and A would seem to be slighly more likely for a cold call pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure the calling preflop raise really skews the odd that the player has an A over a king. Could just be He liked whatever it was good enough to limp in Late position and didn't like the fact that the BB raised him (with what could be anything suited and somewhat good)

If I was the villian I'm not sure I would have the balls to unleash a aggressive Turn Reraise after the PFR has shown nothing but aggression at this point.

I would actually think a Preflop raiser betting out on the flop shows he might be scared. If you had the A or K you would most likely slowplay it an hope the other player made something. A or K in this situation is going have a big advantage.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
If you had the A or K you would most likely slowplay it an hope the other player made something.

[/ QUOTE ]
what?

I'll clarify my original thought....

I was thinking to appear weak only in an effort to entice the others to bet where I could check/raise and punish them. However, with this board no matter what you do you are only going to be called by hands that have very similar odds of winning as you do.

For example...Its not as if the 77 or any other weak holding, after seeing a free card on the flop, is now going to call my lead out bet on the turn. So my original line did not give me a chance to win more bets it only gave others a chance at a freebee

Bet flop makes since and bet river makes since....turn raise by opponents still bad for us

[irishpint]

i had 2 hands just like this today. won 1, lost 1. net was positive. that means nothing.

however pay this off. a turn raise w/ a K is as strong a line I dont think as a river raise- he's raising the turn because he wants you to fold- if he had a K would he want you to fold?

[ QUOTE ]

what?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your "what?". Letting others try to make something is just giving free cards with no real chance of gaining extra bets by slowplaying.


**********
My earlier response to bottomset
***********
[ QUOTE ]
I'll clarify my original thought....

I was thinking to appear weak only in an effort to entice the others to bet where I could check/raise and punish them. However, with this board no matter what you do you are only going to be called by hands that have very similar odds of winning as you do.

For example...Its not as if the 77 or any other weak holding, after seeing a free card on the flop, is now going to call my lead out bet on the turn. So my original line did not give me a chance to win more bets it only gave others a chance at a freebee

Bet flop makes since and bet river makes since....turn raise by opponents still bad for us

[/ QUOTE ]