One of my favorite plays

Hoopster81 · #1 12-07-2005, 04:08 PM

So, the situation is this:

You have a some pocket pair (i.e. 33) and the flop comes AA3, KK3, etc. Paired broadway plus your card. These flops almost always check around, so when it is your action over-bet the pot. If someone has trips, they are going to give you action. If not, you weren't going to make any money anyway.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($12.91)
SB ($202.72)
Hero ($99)
UTG ($11.22)
MP ($106.15)
CO ($152.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, UTG folds, SB raises to $12, Hero calls $92 (All-In), SB calls $87.

Turn: ($199) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($199) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $199

Results in white below: 
SB has Jc Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has 3d 3c (full house, threes full of queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $199.

beavens · #2 12-07-2005, 04:10 PM

heh.. similar situation last night for me.

held 55, flop QQ5.

i bet the pot, raised allin, instacall.

turn brings a Q, river blanks.

i lose to 66 - i tilted!

nh.

Hoopster81 · #3 12-07-2005, 04:12 PM

brutal

beavens · #4 12-07-2005, 04:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
brutal

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah.. ive been getting better about controlling myself but i went kinda nuts after that beat.

went and lost the rest of my stack with TP+FD against TPTK.

even worse, after thinking about it, i went on supermegaultratilt and played a few hands of blackjack.

well, the donk in me paid off, as i came out +40 in BJ and in the black for the night.

bah!

4_2_it · #5 12-07-2005, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
heh.. similar situation last night for me.

held 55, flop QQ5.

i bet the pot, raised allin, instacall.

turn brings a Q, river blanks.

i lose to 66 - i tilted!

nh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can beat that:

Hero 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Board A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
River A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lose to K2o who called my turn all-in.

beavens · #6 12-07-2005, 04:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
heh.. similar situation last night for me.

held 55, flop QQ5.

i bet the pot, raised allin, instacall.

turn brings a Q, river blanks.

i lose to 66 - i tilted!

nh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can beat that:

Hero 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Board A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
River A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lose to K2o who called my turn all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok wow that is much worse.

this thread should be retitled 'ode to bad beats'

el_grande · #7 12-07-2005, 08:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
heh.. similar situation last night for me.

held 55, flop QQ5.

i bet the pot, raised allin, instacall.

turn brings a Q, river blanks.

i lose to 66 - i tilted!

nh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can beat that:

Hero 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Board A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
River A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lose to K2o who called my turn all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh..... my..... god

gol4pro · #8 12-07-2005, 08:59 PM

If you have LAG image, I love it. If you have a TAG image, I think he can fold a really bad Q here too easily.

#9 12-07-2005, 10:04 PM

I like it. In my experience, there is a very large percentage of players in lower limits who cannot fold trips in almost any circumstance.

#10 12-08-2005, 01:50 AM

Patrin is right, a very large percentage of players in low limits cannot fold trips - but the vast majority of them would, in fact, be making the correct play by calling in most circumstances, and it would be bad to fold such a hand over the long run at these levels.

Why? Because an even larger percentage of low limit players will push with AA, KK, JJ or TT with a flop of QQ3. You could also easily see a smaller Q push here. With QJ (or maybe any queen), it is almost an insta-call here.

Yes, you could be wrong (as you would be in this case), but more often than not, you will be getting your money in with the best of it. Folding here with a Queen requires a VERY good read on your opponent's hand.

If you have 33 here, you are worried about only two hands: QQ and Q3. If you have AQ, then you are also only worried about two hands: Q3 and 33 (although I clearly like a made boat which has no worries against backdoor flush or donkey str8's). Thus, your willingness to push with either of these hands should be relatively equal absent a ridiculously good read on your opponent's cards - something well beyond my abilities. The idea that you only get called by hands that crush you is simply wrong at this level. You would routinely get called by much worse hands in this situation.

This is the primary reason I have had success at the lower limit games. Pushing with extremely strong hands gets you paid off much more often than you would be getting crushed by even stronger hands. This is also why raising or pushing with strong draws to take advantage of fold equity is usually not smart at this level. Fold equity is much less likely at this level than the higher levels.

Now, I am not advocating an open push with these hands - but I do think folding to a push would be a mistake over the long run. If not facing a bet into me, I prefer to make a big bet, and then push if raised. Pushing after the turn or the river that is likely to have helped your opponent is also a nice play.

Is this analysis wrong at this level? If not, I am curious as to what level people think this analysis becomes wrong.