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  #1  
Old 08-29-2003, 01:18 AM
Mikey Mikey is offline
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Default Jim Brier (Middle Limit Hold\'em) Problem

Here's one. It just doesn't make any sense to me at all. Maybe you can make something out of it.

For those of you that have your books. Look it up, it's on pg.206 #3. BETTING ON THE END.

Here is the problem.

A $30- $60 game. You are in early position holding the QsJs. A player limps in ahead of you. You limp. A middle player, the button, and the small blind limp. There is $180 in the pot and six players. The flop is QhTh7d, giving you top pair, decent kicker. Both blinds and the early limper check. You bet. The button and the big blind call. There is $270 in the pot and three players. The turn is 2s. The big blind now bets. You just call. The button calls. There is $450 in the pot. The river is the 8s. The big blind now checks. What do you do?

ANSWER: Check. The board is cluttered and you have the button behind you. The river card being an 8 puts puts four cards close together in rank, making a straight or two pair more likely than otherwise......................







Now here is what I see as the problem.

Preflop (fine).
Flop (fine).
Turn (ehh....)

I think on the turn this hand here merits a raise. What did the 2s do. Chances are if you are ahead on the flop, you are ahead on the turn.
I think you should raise the turn.

Now on the river falls an 8s.
Fine, we can't control what falls on the river, but now the authors suggest we check because we have "THE BUTTON behind us". I think that is fine too, as I would check, if I was in this exact situation, but I don't think I would be in this exact situation because I would have tried to knock the button out on the turn with my raise.

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  #2  
Old 08-29-2003, 02:34 AM
andyfox andyfox is offline
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Default Re: Jim Brier (Middle Limit Hold\'em) Problem

Brier and Ciaffone state in the book that they don't necessairly endorse the previous action; they are only assessing what to do given the action as it was.

I don't see how the 8 makes two pair more likely. If the blind had one pair and bet the turn, why would he not bet the river if it gave hiim two pair? I suppose the button could have J-9(s) and have made a straight but in 30-60 it's not unusual for him to have raised the flop with this.

And I'm not so sure a cluttered board makes two pair more likely. I think a board with an ace on or two face cards does.

To me, this points up the problems of limping. Now come the river you have a player behind you. I worry more about a cluttered field of opponents than a cluttered board.
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  #3  
Old 08-29-2003, 01:57 PM
TimTimSalabim TimTimSalabim is offline
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Default Re: Jim Brier (Middle Limit Hold\'em) Problem

I think the reasoning here is because people like to play connectors and one-gappers, thus a cluttered board makes two pair more likely. Specifically, when the 8 lands, it would give someone playing 78 or T8 two pair, but if a 3 had landed, a 73 or T3 is not as great a concern.
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  #4  
Old 08-29-2003, 02:19 PM
TimTimSalabim TimTimSalabim is offline
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Default Re: Jim Brier (Middle Limit Hold\'em) Problem

The turn is tricky here (but isn't the turn always tricky?). I've got top pair, but a questionable kicker. The BB just bet into two players on the turn after check/calling the flop. That's unusual behavior, and to me it would put the brakes on. I think a Call is fine.
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  #5  
Old 08-30-2003, 09:00 PM
archmagi archmagi is offline
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Default Re: Jim Brier (Middle Limit Hold\'em) Problem

Given the information (and no more details) I would also be tempted to raise the turn.
But the pot was not raised, and the BB just checked pre-flop. BB could have anything, and not only cards which are close to each other but anything on the board could have given him a two pair. I think the BB would bet after the turn only if he has a two-pair, or if he has a pair and is trying to drive out flush/straight draws. This is the problem with not raising pre-flop, the BB could have anything.
The point about another player being behind you is that 3 players stayed in until the river, and hence your top pair is more vulnerable (however I think it's unlikely that the button's beed slow-playing in this particular situation, with the level of info given).
As I said before, I would be tempted to raise the turn to see the BB's reaction and hopefully to drive him out, but then again he would only call my raise if he has a two-pair, so I would be loosing money. At least the raise might drive out the button, which increases the chances of my top pair being good.
Still I'm sure that Brier knows more about poker than I do [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #6  
Old 08-30-2003, 09:14 PM
archmagi archmagi is offline
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Default Re: Jim Brier (Middle Limit Hold\'em) Problem

Just checked the book. This is in the "betting at the end" section, and I think we're only supposed to analyse the action at the river [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
I think the point is to be prepared for anything when you don't raise the flop. It seems they are reading a possible two-pair at BB and are worried about a straight at the button.
The next question is, what do you do if the button raises after you check at the river after just calling at the turn, hence have shown weakness.
Going back, I think I would bet the turn, and if I can't drive out anybody check the river.
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  #7  
Old 08-30-2003, 10:46 PM
Jim Brier Jim Brier is offline
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Default Re: Jim Brier (Middle Limit Hold\'em) Problem

Although this is a "river problem", I would be happy to address the turn play.

Preflop you limped in with your suited connector along with five other players. The big blind got a free play so he could have anything. Now the flop comes giving you top pair, mediocre kicker. You bet into five other players on the flop so your opponents are probably putting you on top pair. Now the deuce comes on the turn and the big blind, who could have anything preflop remember, bets out. I see no point in raising. You could easily be looking at a better hand. You have defined your hand whereas the big blind could have virtually anything. He could have anything for his preflop free play. His flop call could have been made on any piece of the board especially given the pot odds he was getting. The deuce probably helped him, which is why he is betting out. Your raise will not drive out any legitimate drawing hand and your hand may not be best.

Ask yourself this: Why would the big blind suddenly bet out now on the turn when a blank comes after showing no previous strength?

Knocking out the button only makes sense when you can be reasonably certain your hand is good. Otherwise, you are just helping the guy with the better hand at your expense.
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  #8  
Old 09-01-2003, 12:50 AM
Yerma Yerma is offline
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Default Lemme tell you how hold\'em works Brier

Ok, on the flop BB calls. He could still have anything like you said. The turn is an offsuit deuce and he bets. Suppose he is a little fishy...

Questions:
1) What was he thinking on the flop when he called?
2) What was he thinking on the turn when he bet?

Answers:
a) if he has a weak queen or some sort of middle pair hand
1. I have a pair but the flop is scary! I would like to check and call!
2. No draws were completed by that deuce and there aren't many players left anymore...maybe that guy who bet the flop is full of crap and can't bet for me anymores! I would like to bet!

b) if he has flopped a monster like a set
1. The flop is scary! Maybe I'll see the turn before I start betting.
2. No draws were completed by that deuce and there aren't many players left anymore...maybe that guy who bet the flop is full of crap and can't bet for me anymores! I would like to bet!

c) if he has turned a monster like Q2 or 22
1. The flop is scary! Maybe I'll see the turn before I start betting.
2. O MY GOD! I like to bet now!

Now if he could have anything because he was in BB and got a free play...case (a) is likeliest by a mile, and that includes factoring in the flop and turn action into your calculations. You cannot defend yourself against cases (b) and (c) properly because you have to charge in case of flush and straight draws. All you can say is that you still probably have the best made hand and now have the field drawing a little slim...the *obvious* response is to raise now. You could come up with some other cases, but they would be obscure and shouldn't heavily figure into your decision on the turn.

A stronger player is very unlikely to follow the BB's betting pattern because he knows he will be read for a single pair that he wishes to protect. So he will be raised by a strong top pair and only called by draws (ie. his opponents will now play him perfectly). You could argue that a stronger player, knowing that he will be put on a single pair, may do this with a set for the pruposes of deception. But a strong player is likely to decloak on the flop here because of the caller-in-between (the button).

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  #9  
Old 09-01-2003, 01:56 PM
Jim Brier Jim Brier is offline
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Default Re: Lemme tell you how hold\'em works Brier

Nonsense. This is a $30-$60 game not $1-$2 game played by idiots. In almost all cases the guy has turned two pair and is betting because he thinks he has the best hand and doesn't want the turn to get checked around especially given the drawing nature of the flop. No other holding makes nearly as much sense. If he had top pair he would have bet out or check-raised the flop not check-called then bet out on the turn when the turn-card failed to help him. Nor is he betting out because he has suddenly made a pair of deuces. Why would someone with middle pair now think their hand is good having received no help on the turn?

When you raise in these situations you are simply costing yourself extra money for insufficient gain. Not that it matters but on the actual hand the big blind won with 7h-2c. The button was on a flush-draw that missed.
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  #10  
Old 09-01-2003, 02:51 PM
Roy Munson Roy Munson is offline
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Default Re: Lemme tell you how hold\'em works Brier

Plus, knocking out the button is counter productive in this situation. Keeping the button in provides protection against a player on whom you do not have a good read.
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