Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor

[sapster]

Strassa has been owning the final table, and pushed the sb, assume here that strassa has any 2 cards. BB has 9xbb and there are antes. What is the worst hand that BB should call with here? It should be noted that the BB has very little folding equity the way the big stacks and especially strassa are opening pots. There were 8 remaining at this point.
Seat 2: notsosilent (232539 in chips)
Seat 3: wader (508656 in chips)
Seat 4: Heffoy (320428 in chips)
Seat 5: jimbottt (1359433 in chips)
Seat 6: luv2winalot (1011114 in chips)
Seat 7: strassa2 (2088746 in chips)
Seat 8: stonekillr (385840 in chips)
Seat 9: S.Derrick (335744 in chips)
notsosilent: posts the ante 2000
wader: posts the ante 2000
Heffoy: posts the ante 2000
jimbottt: posts the ante 2000
luv2winalot: posts the ante 2000
strassa2: posts the ante 2000
stonekillr: posts the ante 2000
S.Derrick: posts the ante 2000
strassa2: posts small blind 20000
stonekillr: posts big blind 40000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
S.Derrick: folds
notsosilent: folds
wader: folds
Heffoy: folds
jimbottt: folds
luv2winalot: folds
strassa2: raises 2046746 to 2086746 and is all-in
stonekillr: calls 343840 and is all-in

[SmileyEH]

I think Stonekilla needs to fold everything he wont be less than a 2-1 favorite or so over a random hand. Maybe a tiny bit worse. Something like KJs, ATo and 99 up or so seems like a spot where I'd have a really tought time deciding.

-SmileyEH

[ClaytonN]

FYI payout structure, which is vastly important:

1 - 105k
2 - 62k
3 - 39.5k
4 - 30k
5 - 24k
6 - 19.5k
7 - 14.5k
8 - 10k

Chip counts, blinds 20k/40k:

232,539
508,656
320,428
1,359,433
1,011,114
2,088,746 - strassa
385,840 - "hero"
335,744

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Stonekilla needs to fold everything he wont be less than a 2-1 favorite or so over a random hand. Maybe a tiny bit worse. Something like KJs, ATo and 99 up or so seems like a spot where I'd have a really tought time deciding.


[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please give some _reasons_ (his stack position in relation to others, CEV as opposed to $EV, chances of winning a higher prize vs. chancses to just go up one level if someone busts, etc), instead of just saying "he needs to fold" against a RANDOM hand? (Strassa is pushing any two here).

[SmileyEH]

Well the reasons are that he is giving up EV by being all in because if he busts he can't move up the payout ladder simply by staying around. Therefore ChipEV doesnt equal $EV. I think the inflection point is around a 2:1 chip EV point, but thats just a gut feeling.

-SmileyEH

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Well the reasons are that he is giving up EV by being all in because if he busts he can't move up the payout ladder simply by staying around.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true even if he has AA now. Of course if he busts he can't move up.

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore ChipEV doesnt equal $EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is not new.

[ QUOTE ]
I think the inflection point is around a 2:1 chip EV point, but thats just a gut feeling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gut feelings are nice, but I think that if you're waiting to be 2:1 with a stack this short you are giving a lot of $EV. And BTW, that's why Strassa could have run over the table. People were thinking just like you.

[SmileyEH]

I mean neither of us has done the math. Your gut is telling you its closer than 2:1, so what. I dunno, can't really take the discussion much further.

-SmileyEH

[adanthar]

OK, so he's got 10xBB and the highest place he can fold into is probably around fifth or sixth, maybe.

Taking *just the top 3 spots* (minus 10K each) into account, the ICM says if he folds he's worth around 11.3K, so at a very rough guess the actual figure is probably around 16 [26 total counting the 10K he has]. There are other variables, though, since if he gets high enough he'll get a deal for more than his chips are worth, etc.

Now what does he call with...without doing the ICM, I think 2:1 is a little more than what he needs. 60/40 is probably all right. But I am not at all sure - somebody else can do the exact math, this is an eyeball.

(ICM does say if he doubles he'll have around 23K plus the extra prize money in the pool it doesn't account for plus the increased $ when they deal. It's going to be a lot more trouble than it's worth to run these numbers out for real, but I have a feeling 60/40 is about right.)

[ClaytonN]

Thing is, unless you are Chris Ferguson you have to eyeball the math.

When it comes down to it, stonekillr wanted to money high instead of creep in. Strassa had been caught with J3o and 85s previously, so this is an easy call from his POV.

[SmileyEH]

KTo works out to exactly 60/40 against a random hand. It's not as terrible a call as I thought, but its razor thin. The posters that are saying it's an easy call are way off.

-SmileyEH