AK line against TAG. What you think?

[MATT111]

I found the turn c/r good for a couple of reasons:

- The only hands that 3bet the turn I can safely fold against (AA,KK,set)
- I win at least the same against hands that I have dominated as villain will check these on the river if he doesnt fold the turn
- If I catch 1 of my outs on the river I will probably win one more BB against PPs

Hero is UTG.
Button is 26/18/2.5/150.

Hero is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises.
All fold to button who 3-bets.
Blinds fold.
Hero caps.
Button calls.
Flop comes:
3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] j [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets. Button raises. Hero calls.

Turn:

4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero checks. Button bets. Hero raises.

i don't see how you can be ahead here much. the board is very dry.

[MATT111]

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i don't see how you can be ahead here much. the board is very dry.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you`d just fold the turn.

yeah, or i'd fold the flop if the odds were bad for drawing to my 6 outs.

[MATT111]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, or i'd fold the flop if the odds were bad for drawing to my 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont you think that villain plays Ak, AQ, AT, KQ like this here?
Giving up on the turn may be an option but I really think we are ahead of at least 25% of villain`s probable holdings.
I do not think we can ever fold on the flop.

i just don't think he'd raise twice on that kind of board if he didn't hit something. he also doesn't look THAT agressive by his stats. i think you are behind to a pair or a set here most often.

[kross]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont you think that villain plays Ak, AQ, AT, KQ like this here?

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In this case, no. You raised UTG. Villain isn't likely putting you on a steal raise, yet he still 3-bets. When you cap and lead the flop, I really don't think a lot of people with average aggression play those hands like that.

[Chairman Wood]

Unless you have some notes saying villian does some goofy things I can't see this as a good play. Villian stats tend to say that he is a reasonable and at least somewhat thinking player that is conscious of position. Villian sees you, a player he probably thinks similar thoughts about, raise from the most vunerable position preflop. He decides to 3-bet. This means he has quite a hand himself. From his whole range that he could have I think you are still doing well at this point. You cap and that is fine. He sees this cap and then narrows the range in his head that you could have. He is thinking you have a premium holding. You bet and he raises on a board that has some bogus draws and the only card that could have hit him is a J. I don't see how he could have any hand that you are ahead of at that point. At 12:1 you can obviously call the flop. I believe you can fold the turn getting 7.5:1. Your outs aren't all that clean against his likely hand range.

I really can't see most decent players holding KQ or AT here. Probably not AQ either.

Best case, he has AK and folds to your check/raise.

Worst case, you just spewed chips all over the floor with 0 outs to his JJ or AA.

[MATT111]

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I really can't see most decent players holding KQ or AT here. Probably not AQ either.

Best case, he has AK and folds to your check/raise.

Worst case, you just spewed chips all over the floor with 0 outs to his JJ or AA.

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I see the point that you and the others make and I guess you are right.
But even if we just put him on a range of hands that beats us on the turn (AA-88, AJ) we have a weighted average of over 4 outs.