Clear fold pf?

J. Stew · #1 09-14-2005, 04:58 AM

Mp3 is 16/6, SB is 25/6.

SSHE says usually call hands like 88, but fold hands like AJo. I'm getting 5.5/1 on a call cause mp3 is coming. I'm probably dominated but could get lucky and flop trip jacks, three hearts, an oesd . . . I think I should probably lay pf but am wondering how close the pf call here is. If I have one more player putting in four bets pf should I call two back to me?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP3 3-bets, 2 folds, SB caps, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, MP3 calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

POKhER · #2 09-14-2005, 05:06 AM

fold preflop.
Cal the flop bet, fold turn.

Preflop i fold when its 2 back to me, its getting capped... you hold AJo.... I dont think a big pot justifys calling here, you look dominated.

Shillx · #3 09-14-2005, 05:16 AM

AJo is total garbage in the situation you present. The problem with calling is that it has really bad negative implied odds. The thing that you have to understand about negative implied odds is that your deficit = frequency x severity.

If you hold AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the villian has KT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board you don't have much in terms of negative implied odds. A king will only come 4.5% of the time and when it does you will lose 2 BB maximum.

When you hold K2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and someone else holds A4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on a board of T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you have really bad negative implied odds. The flush will come in 29% of the time and when it does you will lose your shirt.

The problem with calling here is that you will oftentimes have to pay a boatload of bets (when you flop something) just to see that someone else had AK. Since you will flop a pair about 32.4% of the time, it will get expensive when you commonly end up paying off the entire way and lose. When your one pair is good on the flop you will get very little action since hands like KK and QQ will slow way down on an A98 board.

If you choose to play weak-tight and fold everytime you don't flop a doozy, you will be losing bigtime on the preflop call.

You will get 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s roughly 1.12% of the time.
The flop will be T98/QT9/KQT about .9% of the time (no monotone flops).
You will hit 2 split 2.02% and trips+ 1.45%.

This amounts to a whopping 5.5% of the time. So you need to be getting about 17:1 to call preflop if you play for the monster hand.

Brad

Edit: I would much rather call with 54o here then AJo. When you are totally destroyed in terms of domination/high card value, you have to play for the big hands (straights and flushes). Not that I would call here with 54o getting just 5:1, but it is a much better hand in this spot then AJo.

Stats on 54o:

2 split = 2.02%
Trips+ = 1.45%
76x, 63x, 32x (no monotone, x doesn't fill a straight) = 3.1% each
Straight = 1.3%

Total = 14.1% you will flop a big hand or draw with little to no negative implied odds (i.e. you will not dump a lot of $$$ into a AQ5 board since you are cooked here). 54o will make a straight 9.18% of the time, more then any other hand (same as JTo). Connected cards really go up in value here since they make straights more often then suited cards make flushes (so 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] > 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] > 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), and both of those can take down something like top set (big payday [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). Plus they are usually harder to see which makes them even better.

Thoth · #4 09-14-2005, 05:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop.
Cal the flop bet, fold turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with folding preflop, but I don't think I call the flop in this situation as you don't close the betting. You may get 1 or 2 bets back to you. And even if you see the turn for 1 bet and hit it's far from certain you are good.

lufbradolly · #5 09-14-2005, 05:23 AM

I'm pretty sure i've folded AQ in a similar situation is this to tight?

J. Stew · #6 09-14-2005, 05:24 AM

My brain just got bigger, thanks Brad.

Highn · #7 09-14-2005, 05:26 AM

I'de fold pre-flop.

#8 09-14-2005, 07:44 AM

Fold AJo preflop when you're facing a raise and re-raise. This isn't as great a hand as people give it credit for, even with your positional advantage. You could easily be dominated by AK or AQ here and looking at drawing a jack with no other overcards to win.

I'm putting SB on a high PP (TT+) or AKo/s preflop. Do you think he's the type of player that would cap the pot OOP with anything less and 2 players along for the ride already or is he capping with a lower pair and the hope that you'll fold thus isolating MP3 with his likely overcards?

POKhER · #9 09-14-2005, 07:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop.
Cal the flop bet, fold turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with folding preflop, but I don't think I call the flop in this situation as you don't close the betting. You may get 1 or 2 bets back to you. And even if you see the turn for 1 bet and hit it's far from certain you are good.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, i fold and then call in the heat of the moment.
But now its prob best to fold, you may be behind big PP.

If you hit your A, you'll prob be behind AK/AQ or two pair...

BUT THE POT IS HUGEEEEE so i'm not 100% happy with calling or folding.

J. Stew · #10 09-14-2005, 02:37 PM

No, you're right on, sb had QQ and mp3 had AK.