Application of Theory of Poker on Bluffing in Hold'em

[Shandrax]

I am talking about pages 180ff - Game Theory and Bluffing.

The example from Draw-poker is very clear and instructive, but I am wondering how to transform it in order to use it in Hold'em. The problem is that the river card in Hold'em is exposed, so my opponent gets information.

In contrast, the application in 7-Stud would be easy. My last card is covered, so I can pretend that I hit my flush/straight whatever and bet on my legitimate hands + whenever I hit a bluffcard (although my opponent would be virtually forced to call anyways because of "automatic" 7th street play).

In Hold'em last card bluffs only work on scarecards, so is there a way to transform the example from Draw-poker somehow or can I simply forget about it and bluff whenever I catch certain hole-cards regardless of what the board shows later on?

[K C]

I take it you mean using game theory to decide the best bluffing frequency. This would apply to hold'em similarly and remember we're talking game theory here which has nothing to do with the board. In hold'em though of course considering the board is generally a good idea [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Player's playing frequencies are still going to be a large part of the equation though and this is where this stuff comes into play.

I wouldn't say last card bluffs only work on scare cards although they do work better with them. It's a scare for you too though remember [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Essentially we do want to know the folding patterns of the opponent and then decide how frequently we should bluff here. If the opponent rarely folds then obviously we won't be bluffing a whole lot [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

KC

[Shandrax]

Bluff frequency...but how and when?

In the Draw-poker example you calculate the percentage of hitting the card which gives you the nuts. Then you check the pot-odds and calculate how many bluff-cards you need. If one of these cards hit you bet.

How do you do that in Hold'em? You calculate the percentage you hit the flush on the river. You calculate the number of bluff cards and then? I mean if you need a diamond and a deuce of spade falls, how do you make a bluff out of it? In contrast to games where the last card is not visibile in Hold'em it is obvious you missed your flush!

While the suggested method works straight forward and easy in Draw, it seems that it is impossible to do the same in Hold'em.

In Hold'em your first cards are covered, so you have to bluff "backwards". You can't make any percentage-based bluffs in the end, you have to do it in the beginning. That's my conclusion so far and I want to know where I went wrong.

[AaronBrown]

It's all the same mathematical theory, but it plays out quite differently in the different games.

In draw poker, the most common bluff is not to draw at all. You can do this with any hand. It can never be betrayed by the cards, no one has any information about your hand other than what they infer from your draw and betting. Therefore, you can decide to bluff from the beginning of the hand, and never have to change your mind.

In 7-card stud, you can try to bluff from the beginning, but your upcards may not support it. You can bet strong early, then get cards that couldn't help you if you started with a high pair in the hole, three of a kind or three to a straight flush. Or other player's upcards could prove you were lying. But if you decide to bluff later in the hand based on your four up-cards, your last hole card will not betray you. However, it's possible that other people have cards in the hole, or noticed folded upcards that you forgot, that give away your bluff.

In Hold'em you have the seven card stud problems, plus the problem that the last card is exposed. You have to think carefully to put together a consistent bluff. Hold'em is a game that rewards semi-bluffs much more than pure bluffs.

If you decided to do a pure bluff before the hand started, you would normally just call preflop. You don't want to advertise a monster hand, you want to represent that you caught a good flop. Plus this gives you the option of switching gears and pretending you were slow-playing.

Ideally, there's a small pair on the flop, say 7s. You can go crazy, acting like you hold A7. That works unless someone holds 7s. Two of a suit is a dangerous bluff, because you might not get the third match on the turn or river. That only makes sense if there are several straight possibilities as well.

[Shandrax]

Yes, but this would confirm my assumption that you cannot use the method explained in ToP for Hold'em. Quite unfortunate, because the example looked so convincing and easy to execute.

[Mikey]

what I don't understand is this, esp. on pages 181. "We each ante $100, but after the draw --- which you do not see --- I can bet $100."

Before the draw the pot contains $200 right?

"Suppose I said I'm going to bet $100 every time. Clearly you would call every time because you would stand to win $200 the 24 times I'm bluffing and win $200 the 18 times I have the best hand for a profit of $1200."

My question is why all of a sudden does the ante belong to us. In my usual estimation of problems like this I would like to tend to believe that the pot doesn't belong to me or a part of the pot doesn't belong to me.

Therefore when he bets $100 I stand to win $300 18 times and lose $100 24 times.

Why is it being put this way?

[WhiteWolf]

If your question is 'What technical method should I use to randomize when I bluff', Dan Harrington had a useful technique in 'Harrington on Hold'Em.' His method was to use the position of the second hand on his watch. For example, if he needed to randomly take an action w/25% frequency, he would take that action if his second hand was between 0 and 15 seconds, and not take the action otherwise. The only drawback of this is you need to be careful that the act of looking at your watch does not become a tell that you might be bluffing.

[Shandrax]

I read about the watch thing, I just don't see the difference. Let's assume you got 8s-7s and the board shows Jc-4d-2h-5d-10s would you start a bluff because it is 20:35 on your watch and why should a guy with Ac-Jh believe you?

You can't bluff if you can't represent anything. All you can represent is trips, because that works with every board. You pretend that you started off with a pocket pair and hit trips on the flop. But then you have to start the bluff early. In Hold'em you have to pretend that the board fits to your hole cards, so you better start right with the flop.

In Stud you can pretend that the last card fit to your board. That's a completely different thing. You can actually start your bluff on the very last card.