$109 Bubble: 99 in BB --- what's my line?

[ononimo]

Winning $22 SNG player - decided to play a $109 as a lark just to see how much more difficult the play was. In this particular SNG, the play was relatively passive and straightforward, IMO.

Two reads:
a) UTG has been caught with marginal hands by short stacks in the blinds after making big raises (4-5x BB) from EP with marginal hands (e.g. JTo, KJo) but his hands held up. My read is that UTG's hand is probably marginal but he likely has 2 overcards so I'd be facing a race situation.

b) the SB has played VERY passively - as a short stack, he has passed up several obvious steal opportunities and appears to be waiting for a premium hand. I've been stealing from SB indiscriminately.

here's the hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

SB (t875)
Hero (t3850)
UTG (t1905)
Button (t3370)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t900</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ... ???

[citanul]

given your reads there's no way i could ever fold this hand. i'd push. a lot of the time you're going to see the raiser fold. even though it shouldn't be possible [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] you likely have the best hand if called, and if you lose the possible race, you're still at 2x the chips of hte short stack.

no danger + bubble gap + best hand =&gt; do the happy dance.

citanul

[ononimo]

[ QUOTE ]
even though it shouldn't be possible [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

are you saying this because you see him as being pot-committed? or some other reason?

given my read that UTG has 2 overcards, what do you think of calling to see the flop, pushing if the flop comes low, and check-folding to a bet on a flop with overcards? is that too conservative?

[PattyMcFatty]

In my mind there is only one question here- will he call a push? you never wanna see a flop here.. its fold or push. Have you picked up on his betting pattern? an overpair seems unlikely, except maybe 10 10.. you could be dominating here, or flipping. So, it would seem a push is correct, considering the fact that he is now put to the test on the bubble. However, because he is a loose internet player, he will call here with QK, A10, and of course AQ AK. You do not want to coin flip here with apparent control over the table, and a passive shortstack. Id fold. This is simply a trouble hand unless you have a better read on UTG.

I realize this line may seem too passive. I am not suggesting you should not be playing back at UTG with hands like this in general- but the situation jsut doesnt cater to it. Why risk possibly not moneying for 900 more chips?

[PattyMcFatty]

My reasoning is based on your control.. in most cases your a coinflip. Don't let partypoker determine your tournamnet with a coinflip- fold, keep it in your hands, and exploit your edges with a very comfortable stack.

[DasLeben]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't let partypoker determine your tournamnet with a coinflip- fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, first off, most of the money I make comes from coinflipping with high blinds. That's just how it goes. Secondly, his tournament isn't at risk. If he pushes, gets called, and loses, he's still in decent shape.

POOSH.

[citanul]

yes, he should probably be pot committed, but due to bubble considerations he will not relaly be a lot of the time (or at least in his brain he won't be).

i don't like call and push low card flops becuse of the rarity of low card flops. why put yourself to a guessing game later when you can put him to a guessing game now? it's best of course if you think him to be a weako, but as i said, you still have a good stack if you push are called and lose the hand.

citanul

[Newt_Buggs]

I think that if UTG had raised to t1000 instead of 900 I would stop-n-go. As it is though I think that pushing is the most +EV given his hand range.

to the OP: are you worried about having the best hand here, preserving the bubble so that you can bully, or losing an all in and being in danger of busting?

[PattyMcFatty]

The blinds arent high. thats the point. He has nice control over the table, and that is absolutely relinquished if he calls and loses.

Like I said, I realize this play is +EV, but there are other variables involved. If your better than the table, I think the fold is the clear play, especially considering his stack size.

[DasLeben]

I personally think that this is an excellent opportunity to exercise some control over the table. UTG will most likely fold a large range of hands to the push (correctly or not) due to the shorty in the SB with 4xBB.

So, as citanul basically put it:

High FE + low risk + better end of a coinflip = holla

Folding here is obnoxiously weak, IMO.