AA question for the math guys

grjr · #1 05-21-2005, 06:32 AM

No reads on anyone.

When the K hit the turn here and the Button went off I figured he either had AK or KK. I assumed it was close to 50/50 either way so I kept betting.

Could anyone tell me the exact odds between the two once we see the K on the turn?

Also, would you cap the river on a blank if UTG+1 dropped out early?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 4 folds, Button caps, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Button raises, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, Button bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

thesharpie · #2 05-21-2005, 06:57 AM

It's twice as likely he has AK than KK if I calculated correctly... But that's not taking into account he's more likely to raise KK than AK on the flop, and more likely to cap KK against 2 raises preflop.

Lead the flop, if not that at least raise when it's 2 back to you. Not only do you want to push your large equity edge here, if he caps the flop you have more of an idea whether he has KK if he also raises this turn.

Edit: And I don't cap the river the way you played it. I don't want him checking through his AK if he thinks I plan on checkraising him again, but I also don't want to get raised by KK if I lead. It's close between check calling and bet calling.

grjr · #3 05-21-2005, 07:11 AM

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Lead the flop, if not that at least raise when it's 2 back to you. Not only do you want to push your large equity edge here, if he caps the flop you have more of an idea whether he has KK if he also raises this turn.

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Normally I would lead out here but since I didn't have to cap pre-flop I thought I'd fly under the radar on the flop to keep from giving away my hand. Don't know if that was smart or not but it definately would have worked better if he had had AK. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Oh, also during the flop I didn't care if he had AK or KK. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

grjr · #4 05-21-2005, 07:18 AM

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Edit: And I don't cap the river the way you played it. I don't want him checking through his AK if he thinks I plan on checkraising him again, but I also don't want to get raised by KK if I lead. It's close between check calling and bet calling.

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Since I've pretty much doubled my aggression in the past 5 days I've gotten the accelerator stuck down on the river 4 or 5 times where I wouldn't have done it before. Three of the times they had to hit runner runner to beat me but that wasn't the case this time.

I'm not sure if this is hurting me or not since I only remember the beats and not the hands where I gained 2 BB on the river. I'll have to pay closer attention to that.

thesharpie · #5 05-21-2005, 07:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Normally I would lead out here but since I didn't have to cap pre-flop I thought I'd fly under the radar on the flop to keep from giving away my hand. Don't know if that was smart or not but it definately would have worked better if he had had AK. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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I'd rather start getting my bets in now just in case KK wants to get into a raising war with me. To a typical player you're not giving your hand away just because you lead 3 bet this flop.

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Oh, also during the flop I didn't care if he had AK or KK. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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True, but at least being aggressive on the flop has another minor advantage, we can figure out whether he has KK or AK when a K falls. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Zoelef · #6 05-21-2005, 08:25 AM

You have As Ad.
You're worried about AK and KK.

There are six ways to get KK - KsKd, KsKh, KsKc, KdKh, KdKc, & KhKc.
There are eight remaining ways to get AK - Ac(any king) and Ah(any king)

So 4/7 of the time he has AK, and 3/7 of the time he has KK.

I'm not sure how that applies to this hand but once he 3-bets the turn I call down. Also, bet the flop!

topspin · #7 05-21-2005, 08:35 AM

A minor correction:

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There are six ways to get KK - KsKd, KsKh, KsKc, KdKh, KdKc, & KhKc.

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There are actually C(6,2) = 3 ways. You appear to have counted Kd above even though it's already on the board.

[ QUOTE ]
There are eight remaining ways to get AK - Ac(any king) and Ah(any king)

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There are C(2,1)*C(3,1)=6 ways to get AK. Again, Kd is out.

itsmesteve · #8 05-21-2005, 08:35 AM

Once one King is on the board, however, there are only six ways to make AK and 3 ways to make KK . . . so AK is twice as likely. Given a cap, however, one may assume KK is more likely, if we know this player is unlikely to cap AK . . . which he may or may not be.

matt42s · #9 05-21-2005, 08:50 AM

This is for those of you who don't trust the math.

Villain could have
Ks Kc
Ks Kh
Kc Kh
3 ways to make KK

OR villain has
Ac Kc
Ac Ks
Ac Kh
Ah Kc
Ah Ks
Ah Kh
6 ways to make AK

Edit - originally posted with the order of the cards being significant, but that only complicates it.

Zoelef · #10 05-21-2005, 09:28 AM

Yeah, I didn't pay attention to the available king. Just woke up + 4-tabling = inattentive.