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  #71  
Old 11-18-2005, 11:47 AM
Mike Haven Mike Haven is offline
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Default Re: Death Penalty Article

yes, David, your article is all very logical, but, unfortunately, politically, it's a non-starter in this emotive area

no government could risk damaging the legitimacy of the criminal justice system by openly admitting that the reason for not executing someone is that he might be innocent - at the same time implying that it's OK to send him to prison for life without parole

even in less 'life and death' areas of policy, like soft drug legalisation, logical though this is, most politicians won't dare even raise the possibility in public

if you want to campaign in the real world, better to go for abolition of the death penalty on moral and principled grounds: barbarity; 'cruel and unusual punishment'; etc

i know this seems a long way off in a mindlessly punitive country like the USA presently is, but abolition is something that has taken place in most other western democracies, and, one day, the USA will follow - indeed, executions were suspended for a period in the 1970s-1980s while your Supreme Court debated constitutional challenges to its use, so it's not completely off the radar

less ambitiously, you could argue for restricting execution only to the very most heinous cases

ruthless logic plus politics does not compute, i'm afraid
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  #72  
Old 11-18-2005, 03:17 PM
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Default Re: Death Penalty Article

[ QUOTE ]
The more interesting death penalty topic, and one that is more susceptible to using logical arguments as part of the discussion, would be to examine the effects of even having a death penalty in the first place. Does it serve as a deterrent? How expensive is it compared to life without parole?

[/ QUOTE ]

Those aren't very interesting questions, because they have answers. The question of whether or not the death penalty is a deterrent has been exhaustively studied. No evidence a correlation between use of death penalty and murder rates has ever been found in a reputable study. In fact some jurisdictions have experienced rises in crime since implementation of the death penalty and death penalty states frequently have higher rates of violent crime than states without the penalty. There are so many factors at play, however, that the statistical evidence can only be termed inconclusive.

http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/arti...12&did=167

What is not subject to doubt is that the death penalty is vastly more expensive than life without parole.

http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/arti...=7#From%20DPIC
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  #73  
Old 11-18-2005, 03:28 PM
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Default Re: Death Penalty Article

[ QUOTE ]
Count me in the bunch getting "tripped up" by the Horribleness Points. For instance, you assign 50 HPs to send a murderer back on to the streets, but 600 HPs to giving an innocent man the needle. But what if the murderer we wrongly set free kills another 15 innocent people? Then wouldn't that be a far greater mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any murderer is statistically unlikely to kill other innocent people; the crime has among the lowest recidivism rates. If you think differently, you've been watching too many movies and TV. Someone convicted of DUI and released is more likely to kill an innocent person in the future than a murderer.

No one who commits capital murder would be released to the street unless a jury determined that there was not enough evidence to believe they committed the crime. Once convicted of capital murder, the only available sentences are death and life without parole. So the only opportunities to commit future murders for that person would be in prison.
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  #74  
Old 11-19-2005, 12:56 AM
ptmusic ptmusic is offline
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Default Re: Death Penalty Article

[ QUOTE ]
Once convicted of capital murder....

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's just it. The whole premise starts with assigning values and probabilities to the mistakes of letting a murderer free or an innocent man getting the death penalty.

Your point about low recitivism is interesting though. I suppose it makes sense; I probably have watched too many CSI's and L&O's. But even if the wrongfully freed murderer killed just one (more) innocent person, that mistake then equals the mistake of giving that innocent person the death penalty. My number of 15 more murders was simply used for gruesome effect.
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  #75  
Old 11-21-2005, 12:57 PM
Andrew Fletcher Andrew Fletcher is offline
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Default Re: Death Penalty Article

All of the advice David offers is related to logic. Actually, it could be argued that Two Plus Two and all associated books are simply logical arguements. Poker is simply a tool to discuss logic.

If you think David is correct in his writing about poker, why wouldn't that also apply to political, moral, and other questions? Or does logic not apply to these areas?
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  #76  
Old 11-29-2005, 08:24 PM
Awesemo Awesemo is offline
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Default Re: Death Penalty Article

[ QUOTE ]
"Seriously, this sort of garbage falls from the same tree as Hollywood 's incredible narcissism,"

Except actors can't beat the people they are trying to influence on generalized thinking tests.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the article is very poorly written. If you plan to discuss the death penalty, you need to consider all the issues. Your discussion of execution of an innocent perosn wasn't even very well thought out. After 20 years of being in prison and being through appeals, surely you would agree that there is only a sliver of hope for death row prisoners to be released in their lifetimes. Personally, I don't think this issue is one of the more important issues, even though I think that if it happened, executing an innocent person would be morally repugnant. Our court system is going to make errors and there is not any way to control that. Saying that it would mitigate the damage to release a convict after 20 years of a wrongful conviction is probably a half-truth.

I would think that in your wisdom, you would realize that complex moral issues like capital punishment do not have rights or wrongs. That is why people take opposing sides. People value different concepts more than others, and that leads to the difference of opinions.

Really, I think that you should stay away from philosophy. Many famous mathematicians have dabbled in philosophy, and they have all failed miserably. Do you think that you as a poker player are going to have better skill?

I'd like to see more celebrity poker players have control of their egos.
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  #77  
Old 11-29-2005, 09:42 PM
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Default Re: Death Penalty Article

This subject is misplaced. It belongs in the drunken geek forum. I'm surprised at the author and his insulting comments. His methodology to poker can not be applied to the death penalty. This tangent is crazy.
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  #78  
Old 11-30-2005, 11:36 AM
Buccaneer Buccaneer is offline
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Posts: 95
Default Re: Death Penalty Article

[ QUOTE ]
"I have not read all of these posts but...this would in no way address the one overriding argument aginst the death penalty - the morality of it."

[/ QUOTE ]

You have confused your ego with the morality of society. As a society we give up behaviors to be secure and safe. Those that can not follow the rules must be punished and those that break the rules in the worst way should get the worse punishment. Society demands the ultimate punishment. Get over yourself Slansky.

Your time might be better spent trying to find the errors in your TOP that have prevented you from becoming a house hold poker name rather than fixing our justice system.
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  #79  
Old 12-01-2005, 10:12 PM
ZenMusician ZenMusician is offline
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Location: Are the Queens called Quoons?
Posts: 77
Default Re: Death Penalty Article

[ QUOTE ]
Your time might be better spent trying to find the errors in your TOP that have prevented you from becoming a house hold poker name rather than fixing our justice system.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are no errors in TOP...they are conditioning the slew of new
players to follow the system to which he and DERB secretly have
the immortal counter-plays for...and Sklansky is far from a
"celebrity poker player." He is yet another analytical thinker that has
used poker as a vehicle to fuel his publishing company so that he
can eventually publish his magnum opus-which I guarantee will
have nothing to do with poker.

I think he and Frank Wallace are personal friends...

-ZEN
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  #80  
Old 12-01-2005, 10:57 PM
George Rice George Rice is offline
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Default Re: Death Penalty Article

David,

Have you considered that some jurors in capital cases are concerned about finding a defendant guilty because they know he may face execution. And that this may increase their personal standard on how likely they will vote guilty (let's say up to 98% sure)?

If this is true, some jurors may lower their standards a little if they know that the defendant will get life in prison at worst (to perhaps as low as 95% sure of guilt).

The result of this is that more guilty defendants will be convicted AND more innocent defendants will be convicted too. So, in effect, you are buying the lives of innocent defendants with the freedom or other innocent defendants, with the added benefit of convicting a lot of guilty ones too.

***

In New York the standard isn't "shadow of a doubt" like in the movies, but a "reasonable doubt." A reasonable doubt being defined as a doubt to which you can assign a reason. I think this is a little looser than "shadow of a doubt" standard many assume.

I served on one jury for murder (not capital) and can tell you my experience is that the jurors were not all that swift. In fact, I think the lawyers look for jurors they thing they can fool. I was also surprised how some jurors bring their personal prejudges to the table and express all sorts of opinions without having a basis derived from the facts of the case.

***

David, I pose a question to you (and I realize you may not agree that your proposal will result in more innocent people being found guilty, but others may):

If you were accused of a capital crime and had a choice of having 98% chance of being found innocent, and a 2% chance of being executed, or, a 95% chance of being found innocent, a 4.5% chance of receiving life in prison and a .5% chance of being executed, which would you chose?

Perhaps it's not accurate to assume there is a 95% chance that the jury will be 95% sure. So use your own numbers. Better yet, what would be your numbers if the decision was a coin flip to you?

It may not be exactly the issue you raise but the answer to that question would be determined by how a person values his freedom. Some may even prefer death than life in prison, if that resulted in them being Bubba's personal boy toy for the rest of their lives. And I think many people will look at your proposal from this point of view.

***

Do you think that reasoning will triumph over politics?
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