TPGK Turn Donk bet decision

[JDErickson]

No real reads on opponent as he has flown under the radar so far. He wasn't a fucktard.

Party Poker (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 bets, Hero ???

[hobbsmann]

I'd go ahead on raise here. We have a good chance of holding the best hand and are drawing very live to a ton of outs the times we are behind (except Axh which we have 1 out).

[smokingrobot]

looks like he's representing a flush.

In a HU pot, would'nt you check the flop and donk bet the turn bet if you flopped the flush?

W/O a substantial read, looks like you have no idea if he would do this aside from him not being a retard.

i'd be weary of that bet and the size of the pot isnt anything spectacular either. you might want to raise for purposes besides this specific hand.

Im probably being too weak/tight in this, but maybe this isnt the best hand to do this on?

[ReptileHouse]

No way I check a flopped flush unless I have the nut or 2nd nut flush. Even then, it's far more likely that I'll bet out.

On the turn, if I had a made flush, I'd be check-raising here since hero bet on the flop.

Villain's play here feels more like an attempt to steal the pot. Even if villain does have a flush, hero has redraws to beat all but one of them. I raise here and call a 3-bet. If villain checks again on a river blank, I check behind as I don't think he'll call a bet with a worse hand than ours more than 50% of the time. If a heart hits and he bets again, I raise and call a 3-bet.

[smokingrobot]

i want to put the villain on something to allow that free card and donk bet the turn to gain control of the hand.

if it were me, i would allow that free card with a made hand HU.

even if villain has A hearts with x offsuit, he is improving to a flush more than hero is getting his full house, no?

alhtough the chances are diminished since hero holds a Q hearts.

guess i'm playing this hand too weak tight w/o much more information on the villain.

[Bodhi]

Hero raises. The vast majority of the time these donk bets indicate a weak hand, as bad players tend to rigidly check their good hands and bet their bad ones.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises. The vast majority of the time these donk bets indicate a weak hand, as bad players tend to rigidly check their good hands and bet their bad ones.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No real reads on opponent as he has flown under the radar so far. He wasn't a fucktard.

Party Poker (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 bets, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

OP makes no mention of Villain being a bad player. In fact, one may be able to infer that he not a bad player.

That said, this particular donk bet is extremely well disguised. Nobody has mentioned the possibility of Villain holding QT (no heart), waiting for a non-heart turn - betting for value and to protect. KJ, K9, J9 and lesser Ks are possible along with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x where x can be a heart or a non-heart are possible. How about a total bluff?

As such, since it appears that Hero raising the turn has zero fold equity with all hands that Villain might have (except for a total bluff) calling, I do not see a turn raise as adivisable. The decision then is call or fold.

Even though Villains hand range either puts him ahead of Hero (at the moment) or, if behind, contains redraws to the better hand, Hero does have a draw to the nut str8flush and 2nd nut flush. I value this at 1 for the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and ~4 for the other [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw because villain may have the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] with a made or a drawing hand.

Hero's pair and overcard outs, imho, only come into play a small fraction of the time so maybe 1 out there.

5 outs, then plus the equity when Hero is ahead on the turn.

Conclusion... My gut tells me to fold and mentally congratulate Villain for good play.

Now I happen to have been carrying a copy of TOP with me and now have looked at pages 112-115. Seems fold looks OK.

DISCLAIMER: I am, in now way certain that anything that I have just written is correct.

Anybody else?

[JDErickson]

I raised the turn and opponent called.

He check, called the blank (non flush) river.

He flipped AKo (no heart) and drug the pot.

[droolie]

This donkbet usually means villian does not want you to have a free card to draw to a flush. He usually has TP beaten in these spots.

[ QUOTE ]
In a HU pot, would'nt you check the flop and donk bet the turn bet if you flopped the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.