Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour

[Siegmund]

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How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Total: 5.4:1 against [including draws]

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

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But you're leaving out the times you win with a pair of tens.

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And you're leaving out the fact that flopping a draw has not made you any money; it has only given you enough odds to see the rest of the cards. Only if you flop a draw, get a bunch of extra money into the pot, and win your fair share, will you make back enough to cover the preflop investment.

Your implied odds have been destroyed by that preflop raise. No way would I call this preflop even in the BIG blind. Playing suited connectors from early position or in raised pots is a huge, huge, huge leak, one I didn't have until I was seduced into playing them too often by posters on this and similar forums. Took me quite some time to get over it but am glad I did.

T9s is about the worst I would play from the SB here. 87s I *might* play from the BB.

Returning to the OP's question... if these are typical fish they are thinking about absolute rather than relative hand values, and think any ace is a terrific hand on this flop and turn. (Which it is - but not enough to cap two streets without a K or Q kicker at least.) I think my only poisoned out is the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6. If there's any chance the turn WON'T be capped, I am staying to see the river.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
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How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Total: 5.4:1 against [including draws]

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

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But you're leaving out the times you win with a pair of tens.

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And you're leaving out the fact that flopping a draw has not made you any money; it has only given you enough odds to see the rest of the cards. Only if you flop a draw, get a bunch of extra money into the pot, and win your fair share, will you make back enough to cover the preflop investment.

Your implied odds have been destroyed by that preflop raise. No way would I call this preflop even in the BIG blind. Playing suited connectors from early position or in raised pots is a huge, huge, huge leak, one I didn't have until I was seduced into playing them too often by posters on this and similar forums. Took me quite some time to get over it but am glad I did.


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Ok, so now that you've been Saved from the evils of marginal hands in the blinds what is your BB/Hand for the SB and BB?

[irishpint]

f0ld

[Shillx]

You will make money after the flop if you hit a flush draw provided that a lot of people see the flop. You are making some money on all the flop betting provided that 3 other people are in the pot (I say this because you can sometimes make a flush and still lose to a bigger flush or a house or whatever). You also have the luxury of being able to skip a round of betting (the river) when you don't make the flush, and using that final round to collect when it comes in. So when you flop a flush draw, the only time that you lose money is when you miss on 4th street and have to pay to see the river. Let's just say that 4 people are in the pot and one bet goes in on each street no matter what. Let's also assume that you will win 85% of the time that you end up making a flush. Is this is a good spot for you?

EV = -1.5BB*.65 - 2.5BB*.35*.15 + 7.5BB*.35*.85 = + 1.13 BB/Hand

Looks good to me.

Brad