It seems like too long

hemstock · #1 08-11-2005, 07:32 PM

For the last 3k hands I think I've experianced every bad beat possible [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I am dealt AK, AA etc and I expect to lose.
My confidence has hit rock bottom. I see my winrate dropping and dropping and it really irritates me. (Should I care?). It used to be around 4 when the downswing started. I've read about how big downsings can be. It can get up to 100-150BB, but I wanna know how long does it usually take. I mean 3k hands seems like a lot of bad luck to me. How long does it usually take for the cards to stop hitting against you?
I'm posting the winrate pic since someone might get mad at me for posting the actuall BB pic.

irishpint · #2 08-11-2005, 07:34 PM

you dont really have enough hands to make any assumptions. good things happen to those who

Shillx · #3 08-11-2005, 07:37 PM

You are +25 BB/day dude. You should be feeling good, not down.

Brad

aK13 · #4 08-11-2005, 07:58 PM

Having AK lose to bad beats is all part of the variance. After all, even though runner runners occur only 1% of the time, they do actually happen 1/100 times (you can't expect to win all is what I'm saying).

Is .25/.50 raked? At .5/1 or higher, a 2.5BB/100 rate is really good. While an excellent player could probably run about ~4 (or higher, maybe), since I assume you're still new to the game, it's fantastic. The downward trend means your true rate is probably a little lower than what you're at right now, though, but you're doing fine.

Poker is about maximizing in the long run. The long run is, well, long.

@bsolute_luck · #5 08-12-2005, 06:03 AM

where do i get this graphing-thing?

tiltaholic · #6 08-12-2005, 10:01 AM

dude, you know how people are always saying that 3 bb/100 is a solid winrate to sustain long term? and you're not even close to the long term.

welcome to the club...

think of it this way, you've played 9k hands.
if you had one sweet 50bb session in 200 hands your winrate will jump 0.5 bb/100. but will you have become 0.5BB/100'th better of a player? no. 9k hands is nothing winrate-wise.

here's my plot for .5/1 and 1/2 so far:

#7 08-12-2005, 10:19 AM

Tilt, AMAZING REPLY!
Note Here...AA,AK,KK all get cracked, and we all run through streaks, but in the LONG run, it will equal out if your a good player...
cdl

BritNewbie · #8 08-12-2005, 12:58 PM

that graphing thing

GrunchCan · #9 08-12-2005, 01:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
that graphing thing

[/ QUOTE ]

aaaah! tease me, why dont ya

It probably doesnt even work with PostgreSQL, does it?

bozlax · #10 08-12-2005, 01:16 PM

I'm sure it doesn't, but since it's using COM+ it shouldn't be too hard to make it. PV doesn't, either.

[hijack]Are you using PostGre loaded locally? I don't want another thing running on my laptop, so I pulled another one (not bad, but should be good enough for this purpose) out of mothballs and put the server on it, but performance went in the dumper, so I went back to Access.[/hijack]