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  #1  
Old 12-31-2005, 05:46 AM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Posts: 44
Default Is it live..........

Party 70+7$, and I suck at party tournaments, I mean like really suck. But after grinding out limit and SNGs all night I couldnt resist.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (6 max, 10 handed) converter

BB (t430)
UTG (t960)
UTG+1 (t7040)
UTG+2 (t1025)
MP1 (t1805)
MP2 (t205)
MP3 (t940)
CO (t2290)
Button (t1115)
Hero (t775)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 calls t20, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t60) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t40</font>, BB raises [t430] , MP3 folds, Hero ?????


One of those insta-pushes. I rule out 2p, and sets right away. I thought AT, a weak Jack or a draw were his most likely hands here. I have feeling I am a lot more live than 9 outs here, what do you think?

FWIW, I am prefectly willing to go down with the ship if I know the King is live as well.
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  #2  
Old 12-31-2005, 05:49 AM
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Default Re: Is it live..........

you can't always wait for the pretty ones.
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  #3  
Old 12-31-2005, 05:55 AM
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Default Re: Is it live..........

You aren't getting 2:1. And you might even be going up the nut flush draw or a better K if you are looking for that. I fold rather quickly.
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Old 12-31-2005, 05:59 AM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: Is it live..........

What does 2-1 have to do with anything?

I need like 40-41% equity to make the call.

If he has the nut flush draw, I am drawing to 6 outs, which isnt a bad worse case scenario. I obviously think that 6 outs is a possibility, but not the most likely. I think the odds of him having me drawing that slim, are a good bit less than the odds that he is the one drawing here.
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Old 12-31-2005, 06:15 AM
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Default Re: Is it live..........

2:1 are the odds for you to hit your flush by the river, I was cancelling out the rest of the probability spaces as they seemed to balance out by my rough, mental calculations. You are calling 390 to win 530. Even if you give yourself the, in my opinion, rather generous equity of 40-41%, you STILL don't have the odds to call.
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  #6  
Old 12-31-2005, 08:03 AM
mshalen mshalen is offline
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Default Re: Is it live..........

Don't you guys adjust your bets to manage the size of the pot, thereby giving bad odds, when a flush draw is on the board and you are trying to protect your not so great hand? The bet in this hand may be a little extreme but is a good example.

If I am sitting there with Jx, see a flush draw on the board and put my opponent on a flush draw then I want to bet enough that my opponent is not getting the proper odds to draw for the flush. Sometimes I want to just take what is in the pot and move to the next hand rather than giving my opponent the right odds to take off a card.

My guess is you are not looking at the nut flush draw. Of course I didn't note the size of the buy in. If this is a small buy in then forget what I wrote above. In small buy ins you can never be as sure what your opponent is doing.
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  #7  
Old 12-31-2005, 01:38 PM
stevepa stevepa is offline
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Default Re: Is it live..........

I've never played these 70+7's but assuming normal Party players, this is a J almost all the time. Against a range of any jack, you're a 1.3-1 underdog getting 1.36-1...So I'm not sure what I do. Call I guess.

Steve
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  #8  
Old 12-31-2005, 03:04 PM
A_PLUS A_PLUS is offline
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Default Re: Is it live..........

[ QUOTE ]
2:1 are the odds for you to hit your flush by the river, I was cancelling out the rest of the probability spaces as they seemed to balance out by my rough, mental calculations. You are calling 390 to win 530. Even if you give yourself the, in my opinion, rather generous equity of 40-41%, you STILL don't have the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your splitting hairs, I need apx 42% to call. If my King is live, I have it.
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