What do you think the Odds of this NBA prop should be?

[JesusSmurf]

Hello, Friend of mine wants to take a prop bet from me and I wanted to know if anyone had any idea what the odds should be?

The prop is the home team in any of the remaining NBA games this year will score 104 and beat the Away team 93. So the final score will read home team 104 away team 93 exactly. This prop would exist for every NBA game for the rest of the year. IF it hits once I lose. I want to take this bet, but what odds should I give him that would be fair?

[Lori]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/recap?gid=2005101101

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2004Dec22.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2005Apr24.html

http://cavaliers.mostvaluablenetwork...record-at-2-2/

This was from a very quick google of "nba 104 93" and there were several others too.

As it happens most of them are the road side winning, but obviously that's an anomaly of my searching 104 93 instead of 93 104.

I believe you have the worst of this by a margin, there must be many games each year settled by 11 points in favor of the home side, and some of those could well be 104-93

Lori

a 104-93 win the for the home team has occurred 10 times in the last 5 years.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
a 104-93 win the for the home team has occurred 10 times in the last 5 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

off the top of your head?

[JesusSmurf]

Lori, Those games are for the away team scoring 104 not the home. It has to be exactly Home 104 Away 93.

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
a 104-93 win the for the home team has occurred 10 times in the last 5 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, then this is 10 times in 6075 games, giving a probability of 1/607.5 chance for each individual game. You could estimate the chance that this score does NOT happen for the rest of the year (approx 950 games remaining) as (1-(1/607.5))^950 = 0.209 ==> 21%

Looks like you should be GETTING 4 to 1 odds, not giving, if you are the person who says this score will not occur. Seems crazy.

Of course, this is assuming alot of things about statistical data that I cannot confirm, but for a crazy prop like this it might be a jumping off point.

Edit: It's late and this seems like a horrible way of figuring out the probability, but if you could confirm that there is 607 to 1 chance that this score occurs in an individual game then there is an 80% chance it will occur AT LEAST ONCE in 950 games.

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a 104-93 win the for the home team has occurred 10 times in the last 5 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, then this is 10 times in 6075 games, giving a probability of 1/607.5 chance for each individual game. You could estimate the chance that this score does NOT happen for the rest of the year (approx 950 games remaining) as (1-(1/607.5))^950 = 0.209 ==> 21%

Looks like you should be GETTING 4 to 1 odds, not giving, if you are the person who says this score will not occur. Seems crazy.

Of course, this is assuming alot of things about statistical data that I cannot confirm, but for a crazy prop like this it might be a jumping off point.

Edit: It's late and this seems like a horrible way of figuring out the probability, but if you could confirm that there is 607 to 1 chance that this score occurs in an individual game then there is an 80% chance it will occur AT LEAST ONCE in 950 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another way to say it, for it to be even odds, you would need the chance for it to occur in one particular game to be (1-(1/x))^950 = 0.5 ==> where x is about 1370.

So, if its 1370 to 1 for that exact score to occur in any random game then its 50% for it to happen at least once in the rest of the season.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a 104-93 win the for the home team has occurred 10 times in the last 5 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

off the top of your head?

[/ QUOTE ]

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