and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

[SossMan]

I think this is definitely a calling situation. You can reassess how to get the chips in later as the hand develops. If all fold, I'm getting the rest in on the turn.

[A_PLUS]

Here were my thoughts on the hand. I am slightly advantaged as I have a ton of experience with the SB, and some with the total donk. I thought for sure the SB had an Ace, he was very close to be committed here. The donk would call down anything with an Ace, probably folding anything else.

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Well, I want all of the chips in on the flop, and the more callers the merrier. You have 15 outs to close enough to the nuts for me. Being heads up doesnt help our chances of winning the hand any (since I'm sure whoever would call any bets will have the A). Im definitely going to raise though, I want to reopen the action and at least give the SB a chance to push. But I dont want to raise too much, b/c I want the option of reraising his push, if anyone else is along for the ride.


So, 220 in the pot...hmmm

I think I make it 300, to go. Its early enough that they wont have any read on your bet sizes. This way, it leaves the SB with just enough chips where he might think he has some Folding Equity. Plus, SB calling 200 is better than the 100 call (MP or LP)you can probably expect behind you. Also, you made it 300, It cost SB 200 to call, leaving him with 350, which will reopen the betting if he pushes it in (in case someone else calls you too). Also, it commits you to the pot, and makes it easy to call a push from SB if he calls and Leads the turn for 350 (and we miss)

Say you make it 300, and have 2 callers. I am Jamming any turn other than an A.
If just SB calls, I will take the free card if he gives it, and call a push.

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So, my thought was that we had to raise. If we just call, and dont get another caller, we are making a mistake by calling the push that I was certain the SB was making the 2/3 of the time we miss. The players behind would have a hard time raising with less than 2P, and they could get us off the turn with a push as well.

I think that a lone ace would call a raise alot more often than they would raise themselves. I though the 300 gave us the best chance of building a monster pot on the flop. A call would end up with a 300-400 pot way too often.

I felt that we could ignore hands like AXs, 2p and sets, b/c the betting of the other players would take care of getting all of the money in for us. So I want to maximize against weak flush draws, AX, etc.

I am going to try to get the other player to post his actual line and thoughts. Just an excuse to trap another good player into posting some hands.

Happy Holidays ,you degenerates! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[A_PLUS]

shameless bump.

I want to see what you guys think of my line suggestion.

[M.B.E.]

A_Plus, I think you're right that raising the flop is in order. It's a little counterintuitive because our goal on a flop like this is to get all-in multiway -- that's much better than getting all-in headsup (which is why most in this thread wanted to call the SB's bet). I'd prefer raising to 275, not 300, but not a huge difference there.

If we just call the 100, there's a good chance the other two will call as well, then on any non-club turn SB will push his 520 into the 520 pot. That is generally a disaster for us with the straight flush draw.

You didn't give the payout schedule. It doesn't really matter to this particular decision, I suppose.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If we just call the 100, there's a good chance the other two will call as well, then on any non-club turn SB will push his 520 into the 520 pot. That is generally a disaster for us with the straight flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a disaster? consider two cases:

a) push the flop and get heads up against the SB's Ax.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jc 9c Ad
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.5354 % 53.54% 00.00% { QcTc }
Hand 2: 46.4646 % 46.46% 00.00% { As7c }

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is 120 + 620 + 620 = 1360, hero has equity 728 and he paid 620, so the +EV of pushing (vs. folding) is +108.

b) call flop and fold turn

lose 100 relative to folding flop. so you lose 208 chips when you have to fold the turn vs if you push and get HU vs SB. not exactly a disaster, since getting heads up vs SB is a pretty good result, but not some sort of amazing score. op's read is that villain almost certainly has an A and probably isn't going anywhere, so there isn't much fold equity to be had.

one third of the time you hit, and then you're getting the whole SB stack as well as a lot of chips from the donks. plus a call here lets others call or raise, both of which you're happy to see.

if you raise, you might fold out a small flush draw, which is obviously really bad (and the nut flush draw is not going anywhere, and the K-high draw probably isn't either).

i think you've got to call here.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
one third of the time you hit, and then you're getting the whole SB stack as well as a lot of chips from the donks

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, if you hit the straight. But if nobody raises on the flop, and then a club comes on the turn, I wouldn't be too certain of getting all the SB's chips if all he has is TPWK.

[Art Vandelay]

At first I thought a call was in order but after reading your thought process, I like the raise to ~300. With the weak players behind you it's entirely possible they will call 300 cold. Even if they fold you can call a push from the SB as you are the favorite on the flop with your monster draw.

Another thought I had about this line is that let's say you just flat call and the donks fold. Now if a brick hits and the SB pushes 520 into a 320 pot you don't have the odds to call. However, if you have raised to 300 on the flop and the SB called, the SB is now pushing a 320 stack into a 720 pot and you have the odds to call. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way but it seems by raising on the flop you are setting it up so that even in a worst case scenario (the weak players both fold and a blank hits on the turn) you still have the odds to call a SB turn push.

Yes, I am a level 2 on MLG's evolution but damn it I'd like to get to at least a 3.

Edit: fixed some numbers in my pot calculations.