all-in - draw?

[wslee00]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 ($67.06)
MP2 ($204.71)
Hero ($103.05)
Button ($94.15)
SB ($228.45)
BB ($17.50)
UTG ($84.72)
UTG+1 ($116.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $4</font>, SB (poster) calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $3, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($17) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

converter seems to be broken...
sb checks, mp1 bets $3, hero raises to 16, button folds, sb raises all-in, mp1 folds, hero???

call.

As you say, he's probably on a draw. Here is where having a good read on your opponent is vital. Has he been playing super aggressive? I think you have him beat. Either he has AJ or (more likely I would think) he is drawing to the nut flush. Either way, you have to call.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
call.

As you say, he's probably on a draw. Here is where having a good read on your opponent is vital. Has he been playing super aggressive? I think you have him beat. Either he has AJ or (more likely I would think) he is drawing to the nut flush. Either way, you have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how you can eliminate a set from villain's possible holdings.
Let's examine the hand from Villain's perspective. He had a hand strong enough to play OOP and to just call a button raise to 4xBB. To me, this points to either a pocket pair from JJ-22 or a suited connector. On the flop,
Villain check-reraised all-in. This eliminates all suited connectors except JJ, TT, 99, and 88. It also eliminates all suited connectors except K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and 98s.

Unless villain is very, very aggressive, his range is: a set, OESD, straight flush draw, or pair plus straight or flush draw.

You are about 15% on average to win against a flush (12% vs JJ, 15% vs 99, 18% vs 88)

You are 65% to win against the TT OESD.

You are 57% to win against the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw.

You are 47% to win against Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] pair plus draw.

You are 40% to win against J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] pair plus draw.

You are 90% to win against 98s.

There is $135 in the pot and it costs you $83 to call, so you need to win 38% of the time to make this a +EV call.

Taking a rough average of all of the possible win %, Hero is about 43% to win against villain's range.

Overall:
This seems to be a +EV call, but we really need reads because Villain isn't really as likely to push with just a straight draw as he is to push with bottom set.

[EMcWilliams]

Button raised PF, I think most likely you will see AKc, AA-TT, KQc,. So all against the JJ you are pretty good against so I think I call here.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Button raised PF, I think most likely you will see AKc, AA-TT, KQc,. So all against the JJ you are pretty good against so I think I call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you don't think that AKs reraises preflop? I think most often it does, but okay.

You don't think AA and KK reraise preflop? Gimme a break.

You don't think QQ will reraise preflop? I think most often it does, but okay.

I agree that JJ and TT don't reraise preflop. The former has us crushed, the latter we are ahead of 2:1.

Try to see it from Villain's perspective. You are in the SB and you've seen a button raise to 4xBB with 2 limpers into the button.

[scrapperdog]

I think this is such an easy fold. A check-raise all in to a raise and a re-raise from the person that did not even raise it up pre flop. If that is not strength I dont know what is. I feel you are beat here most of the time. This is a 4 way flop, not something heads up against the button (If that was the case I call instantly). I would be interested knowing more about why people think this is a good call. I would say this is a bad call withought a read.

Well, you're right. He could have a set. But I think it's more likely he's on a super draw. Why would he bet all in? It seems like he is trying to end the hand with the all in. I see this mostly when an aggressive player is on a draw and knows if he gets called, he has a good draw to his monster.

So, yah. You can't totally eliminate a set. But that's my thinking.

[scrapperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, you're right. He could have a set. But I think it's more likely he's on a super draw. Why would he bet all in? It seems like he is trying to end the hand with the all in. I see this mostly when an aggressive player is on a draw and knows if he gets called, he has a good draw to his monster.

So, yah. You can't totally eliminate a set. But that's my thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I put him directly on a strait. Maybe not the nut strait. He is protecting his hand from the flush draw and higher strait draws. I am not the greatest hand reader but this is what jumped out at me.

That would mean he stayed in with Q10. Not totally out of the question, but a very loose call IMO, when facing the raises. But with this loose table, maybe you're right.

Without any information about the SB I think this is a really difficult question. Even his VPIP would help enormously. If he's a loose player who counted on the limpers calling the raise as well, then he has a huge range of hands. I don't see him making a move this strong with a range of hands that Hero is a favorite against. I know you got the equity from pokerstove, but as you said "Villain isn't really as likely to push with just a straight draw as he is to push with bottom set."

Some people see SB's huge raise as an attempt to end the hand because he's on a draw, but it could also be sets and straights just wanting to get it all in now. They know someone really likes their hand and is probably willing to call all in.

However, any read on SB would help enormously and could really change my advice on the hand, which is to fold.