8 SNG set probabilities

[AleoMagus]

Well, this likely only interests me, but I'll post it here anyways in case someone else cares.

I calculated probabilities for, and graphed every unique $ finish possible in a set of 8 SNGs (as this is my daily regiment these days)

This is actually pretty cool, because it is an exact combinatoric calculation, and gives a confidence result, but without relying on Normal distribution assumptions.

an excel file called 'sng set probabilities' can be found at:

http://www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/spreadsheet

You can fiddle around with the input values at the top so that it refects your individual finish breakdown. It is currently set for $22 SNGs, (I've been 4-tabling those twice a day). If you change it for another buy in, you should adjust the scales on the charts to accommodate min and max values for your particular buy-in. Hopefully you'll see what I mean.

I think it I find some time, I am going to do this for an even larger set of SNG outcomes. 20 would be about the most I'd ever want to do on excel because the combinatorics get crazily huge after a while. Still, even with a 20 SNG set, it would give a much clearer picture of how the actual SNG results curve compares with standard normal distribution estimates. Actually, even this little 8 SNG sample does that to some extent.

What I really should do is learn to program and write something that would do much larger samles automatically. It really would not be out of the question for a fast computer to do these same kinds of calculations for a 100 or even 1000 SNG sample. In this way it would be possible to give EXACT confidence figures for even very large samples and predict confidence values exactly for future results over an upcoming sample that may also be very large.

Anyways, hopefully this interests someone
Any questions/thoughts?

Regards
Brad S