Very interesting deep-stack situation, 2KNL

Empire 2K NL this afternoon. 3-4 handed for a few hours. Villain and I are carving up one specific player, and that player is trash talking and making a fool of himself (while losing a couple of stacks). Villain and I are chatting it up, being friendly while showing down hands, and playing pretty ABC against each other. The previous history is I've bluff-raised his river blocking bets in position knowing he has only marginal holdings, but he's called and caught me two or three times. I've since typed to him that he won't catch me on one of those moves again. We've been there for a few hours 3-handed and I haven't made any moves at him, like I said, it's been ABC honest poker. Villain is TAG for sure, with some good reads on other players. Then this hand came up.
Stacks: Villain has 7k, I cover.

3-handed. I'm in SB with 7d10d. Villain is BB. Button raises to 70, which means I will take at least 800 from him because he's so bad. I call in SB, but then Villain messes things up by making it 240 to go. I'm 100% sure this is KK or AA. Button folds, I call planning to see what the flop brings. He's TAG, and I'm 80% sure I can push him off KK or AA with the right flop.

Flop ($550): 6s8d2c rainbow. Interesting. Here goes nothing. I check, Villain bets $420, I c/r to $1500, he calls with about 4.3k behind.

Turn ($3,550): 6h. I hesitate for 4 seconds, and push.

Remember, I'm 80% sure he's capable of folding KK or AA in this spot. Or at least I hope. If not, I'll spike a 9!

Secondly, if he does fold, do I show my cards?

[Simplistic]

don't show, your bluff doesn't make sense.

[slickpoppa]

What are you representing here? There are no straights possible and it is a rainbow board. If you had a fullhouse or trips, why would you push on such an innocuous board?

[Rococo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm 80% sure I can push him off KK or AA with the right flop. Flop ($550): 6s8d2c rainbow.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the right flop?



[ QUOTE ]
If he does fold, do I show my cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want him to think you are reckless, go ahead. This is a pretty shaky bluff in my opinion. I have no idea what hand you are representing, and I think that AA looks you up very often here.

[chuddo]

you had better hope that he is not as good as you are giving him credit for, or he will jump out of his seat and call this.

unless you have been taking weird spots and bets like this very very often, it reaks of a bad bluff.

3500 in the pot, he has 4k behind? if i were him and thought you were full/trips when he is both holding AA/KK and representing it, would you not be bettng ~2k to make it irresistable and then again on the river, especially having him draw to two outs.

if i am him holding KK, the only actual hand i am worried about is AA here.

sorry, donut like and should be picked off.

I guess for those of you who have no idea what hand I'm representing, I should spell it out. I'm representing 68, 66, 88 or 22. And if I did have those hands, I'd most likely take this line.

I pushed turn because a pot sized-bet commits me, a 2/3 pot sized bet might look weak, and a push puts him at a big decision for all his chips. And most of all, I think 8/10 times he folds if he's thinking about my table image.

With these stacks, is he going to commit all his chips in the face of that kind of aggression?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Yet another "You would never bet this way with the nuts! You would bet smaller so that he would call! So he should call this overbet!" This argument is obviously fine if Hero is predictable or, more importantly, if Villain views Hero as being predictable. But if Villain views Hero as being somewhat prone to moves like overbetting the nuts and if Villain has some weakish tendencies this is a hard call to make. That flop is pretty dry. I guess you can be in the "nuts or bluff and it's hard to make nuts so I call" camp but it's definitely not an easy call to make with 350bb stacks.

[Rococo]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess for those of you who have no idea what hand I'm representing, I should spell it out. I'm representing 68, 66, 88 or 22. And if I did have those hands, I'd most likely take this line.

I pushed turn because a pot sized-bet commits me, a 2/3 pot sized bet might look weak, and a push puts him at a big decision for all his chips. And most of all, I think 8/10 times he folds if he's thinking about my table image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. Sounds like you have it all figured out and don't need any help from us. Congratulations and see you around the quad.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess for those of you who have no idea what hand I'm representing, I should spell it out. I'm representing 68, 66, 88 or 22. And if I did have those hands, I'd most likely take this line.

I pushed turn because a pot sized-bet commits me, a 2/3 pot sized bet might look weak, and a push puts him at a big decision for all his chips. And most of all, I think 8/10 times he folds if he's thinking about my table image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. Sounds like you have it all figured out and don't need any help from us. Congratulations and see you around the quad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have it figured out. I want to know if 1)this is +EV, would you call with AA or KK here for all your chips?

and

2) Pros/cons to showing my hand afterward if he folds

[TheWorstPlayer]

Against this guy, seems like the turn play is probably +EV in a vaccuum, although obviously it is kinda silly speculating from the sidelines. I think it would at least be a difficult call for him to make since he has to fear that you took this line with a monster particularly looking for a strange looking line to stack him with. However, he MUST be suspect of your flop check/raise and therefore I don't really like the line as a whole. If you really did have a monster, why check/raise the flop and set him on edge? I think the fact that he has to think very seriously about folding the turn here should tip him towards calling. Your line is showing too much strength, basically, on a relatively dry board. If you really had a monster, you would be unlikely to play it anywhere near this fast - starting with the flop check/raise. Just looks like you're trying to push him off his hand. I would prefer c/c flop, bet/3b turn. Or c/c flop, c/r turn, overbet river if he checks turn through. Or something else. This just seems played too fast for a monster taken as a whole, not just the turn overbet.

Of course it all boils down to levels of thinking and if he thinks you are a tricky player who can take a line that looks like you want a fold really wanting a call then it can work. But you said you had both been playing ABC. And if he still thinks you're playing ABC, you're pushing way too hard here to have anything real.