Follow up to the big discussion yesterday!

[Rolen]

Of course him having QQ is inconcequential, he may as well have had 72o, but you're underestimating the strength of your position in the tournament if you choose to fold.

EDIT : If i've got 1000 chips left 4 handed and the next smallest stack has 3000, then I NEED to double up. If I have 1000 chips left and there are two other stacks with 1000 left, I can let them feel the urge to double up, take guarenteed third a good portion of the time, and then adjust and try to take the win.

[Voltron87]

If you fold you're playing for 3/4, if you go all in you're playing for 1st. It's usally not a good idea to cripple yourself to go to 3rd, especially if you pass up edges to get there.

[Rolen]

Ehh, 1000 chips 3 handed's chances of taking first are not all that worse than 3000 chips 4 handed's chances.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me let u in on a little secret...if I am bigstack in your game, I am raising with 72 w/ 4 left...or who the hell knows...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're serious about 72 right? Don't kid with me. I mentioned having a minor revelation recently which was basically, that I could tell when FE was huge and I could push with any two and it was good. Last night I started looking at my cards again and saying "Ok, anything but 72, next time I'll push, I promise."

[Shanemex]

[ QUOTE ]
Ehh, 1000 chips 3 handed's chances of taking first are not all that worse than 3000 chips 4 handed's chances.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh... what? If you call and win you are the chip leader and can bully the rest of the players so you have a huge lead when you get ITM. If you fold this you will be 3rd in chips with no folding equity. So now you need to get lucky that the other short stacks lose their all ins.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
I can let them feel the urge to double up, take guarenteed third a good portion of the time, and then adjust and try to take the win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two things wrong with this sentence...
(a) "Guaranteed third a good portion of the time" is like saying there's a 100% chance that I will have a 66% chance of getting third. It just don't make no sense.
(b) The smaller stacks are not all that much smaller than you are. In fact, if either of them steal one blind, they're ahead of you. Rather than making a move with an excellent hand (where your 65-75% favorite about 70% of the time, coinflip 28% of the time, and dominated 2% of the time and will double up if you win), you're gambling on a 50/50 shot that someone will bust out before you.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
'Let me let u in on a little secret...if I am bigstack in your game, I am raising with 72 w/ 4 left...or who the hell knows...'

You mean you don't do that to everyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant always in that situation...not "your" game in particular

[Scuba Chuck]

Rolen, I haven't read any of the subsequent posts, but my calling standards are pretty simple. JJ+, AK. Your stacksize, and your opponents stacksizes are not too relevant in this play, meaning to say that you aren't guaranteed ITM at this stage. The numbers, the math say that calling with AK is a good move here in the long run.

Furthermore, depending on other table factors, it's likely I'll lower these standards slightly when it's 4 handed to AQ and TT.

Scuba
who would have called with AK

[Rolen]

1) I mention 'guarenteed third' to put emphasis on the fact that your WORST place is third, and that first is still very attainable

2) I'm actually gambling on a 33/66 shot. Since there's two stacks at my level, let's say i'm 50/50 with each to bust out first, = 66/33 i'll make at least 3rd. Of course, i'm not even considering the possibility they both bust before I have to do anything..

[Rolen]

Well that's what you should be doing. And i'll be folding, just like I should be doing