WSOP 10K Conundrums...

[CieloAzor]

1) Easy fold.
2) Easy call.

[Stoneii]

Easy Fold
Easy Fold - Presumably Bill makes the bet knowing Mark comes OTT - mmmmmm

stoneii

[captainzodiac]

neither is easy,but if i'm calling 1 it's the kk,if i'm busting out,i'd rather have the chance at quadrupling my money,instead of busting out to a flush where i can double,but i most likely can't make either call.

[CardSharpCook]

I love how easy these decisions are for everyone. I didn't know I was in the presence of such genius. (I also love how people make this easy decision both ways). What is even better is how people can easily make these choices but can't explain why.

Me, I find both situations difficult, and would love to hear some real arguments. Somehow, reading "easy fold" just doesn't convince me.

CSC

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I love how easy these decisions are for everyone. I didn't know I was in the presence of such genius. (I also love how people make this easy decision both ways). What is even better is how people can easily make these choices but can't explain why.

Me, I find both situations difficult, and would love to hear some real arguments. Somehow, reading "easy fold" just doesn't convince me.

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, neither one is really that easy.

I think that hand 1 is a pretty clear fold with that amount of action in front (and behind) you in such a early spot in a tourney that people don't want to bust out of.

Hand 2 is a little more dicey because of the presence of the third player betting into someone who has shown the ability to push on the flop. However, a call by the hero should slow him down enough to make him fold the hands we want out (big pairs with a flush draw).

[Stoneii]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 is a little more dicey because of the presence of the third player betting into someone who has shown the ability to push on the flop. However, a call by the hero should slow him down enough to make him fold the hands we want out (big pairs with a flush draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

Sossman, this guy doesn't show the ability to move in on a flop the post stated he moved in on EVERY flop he saw, Bill knowing this decides to bet, that's why it's an easy laydown, the hero call is irrelevant to Bill who already knows Mark will come over the top and still chose to bet at it.

Regards

stoneii

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 is a little more dicey because of the presence of the third player betting into someone who has shown the ability to push on the flop. However, a call by the hero should slow him down enough to make him fold the hands we want out (big pairs with a flush draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

Sossman, this guy doesn't show the ability to move in on a flop the post stated he moved in on EVERY flop he saw, Bill knowing this decides to bet, that's why it's an easy laydown, the hero call is irrelevant to Bill who already knows Mark will come over the top and still chose to bet at it.

Regards

stoneii

[/ QUOTE ]

But his bet of 800 meant nothing. his 800 in the pot is insignificant, so it mostly shows him as being incompetent.

I fold #1 because I think either UTH, the 11k pusher, or both have some combo of AA/KK that dooms you.

#2 I probably call, dr. allin or the dipstick bettor need to have AT +flush or AA/TT to put you in brutal shape. Given that this is unraised, imo AA is substantially less likely.

Since they're hypotheticals, though, you get to create your own results and prove you were right! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[sam h]

Situation 1

I would fold. Nobody immediately calls out of turn here with less than KK in the UTG spot.

Situation 2

I would call. You obviously are a huge favorite over the maniac's range of hands. The other player could easily have something like AxQh and be trying to bait the maniac into pushing with the initial flop bet. Why would he need a flush to bet that flop in this situation? And even if he does have the flush you are basically getting 2:1. This is an excellent spot to gamble and try to amass a dominating stack which you could really start leveraging early.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Sossman, this guy doesn't show the ability to move in on a flop the post stated he moved in on EVERY flop he saw, Bill knowing this decides to bet, that's why it's an easy laydown, the hero call is irrelevant to Bill who already knows Mark will come over the top and still chose to bet at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bill isn't baiting you. He's baiting the maniac who moves in blind. Thus, Bill is essentially saying 'I can beat a random hand'.

He's got a pair/draw, 2 pair+ or better but most of what he has is gonna be folded once you call (even if he calls AxK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you're still ahead with a huge overlay). AA doesn't concern me, which leaves exactly TT and a flush that you actually have the odds to call once all three of you are all in. This is a call and it's not really close.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sossman, this guy doesn't show the ability to move in on a flop the post stated he moved in on EVERY flop he saw, Bill knowing this decides to bet, that's why it's an easy laydown, the hero call is irrelevant to Bill who already knows Mark will come over the top and still chose to bet at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bill isn't baiting you. He's baiting the maniac who moves in blind. Thus, Bill is essentially saying 'I can beat a random hand'.

He's got a pair/draw, 2 pair+ or better but most of what he has is gonna be folded once you call (even if he calls AxK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you're still ahead with a huge overlay). AA doesn't concern me, which leaves exactly TT and a flush that you actually have the odds to call once all three of you are all in. This is a call and it's not really close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the analysis. The only thing that makes it "close" is that one of the four unknown cards is likely to be a flush card, but you're still gonna dodge those 9 hearts 65% of the time AND I don't see it as likely that you are behind here AND, you have a redraw on the river with 10 outs should the flush hit.

And yes, the first players action is merely to indicate to our maniac that he is, at least, behind at the moment and should reconsider pullin the trigger. I think if you fold, UTG calls, but if you call, he may fold.

CSC