Follow up to the big discussion yesterday!

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he's pushing with any ace, K9(s + o)+ and any pair, equity is 63.738%. I don't believe that covers future folding equity at the 20+2s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but you just said in your previous post that you have 66% to get third if you fold.

Now think of this...if you fold here and survive to ITM (66% chance) you will probably have between 1000 and 2000. Would you prefer this?

OOOOR

For the same low price of a 63.738% chance of making the money, you get all this:
1500 more chips,
do not have the biggest stack at the table to your immediate left,
in fact you ARE the big stack and finally
a much better shot at 1st.

Now...will you choose whats behind door number 1? or will you take what's in this box?
________
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|__????__|
|_______|

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]

________
|_______|
|__????__|
|_______|

[/ QUOTE ]

I know poker pays more...but did art ever come up as a career path? Given your limited resources here I must commend you...a little 3 point perspective wouldve been nice though.

[johnny005]

just got eastbays SNG tool not quit sure how to use all the functions but here is what it says if the BB is calling with 22+,A2+,K2+,Q9+, and other players have normall calling standards..77+, A9+.....
$EV fold= 23.7%....$EV push=24.6% +o.9% EV
PUSH THIS
so these calculations are against even looser calling standards than you sugested and it still comes out +ev.......push that every time.

[RobGW]

Rolen,

If you want to play a risk averse style and just make the money then thats your perogative. I saw your numbers the other day and they look ok. Congrats, you seem to be a winning player. However, your style is far from optimal. You would have even better results if you opened your mind to all the advice given by the better players on this board all of which say to go all in here. I'm not saying that I am always right and you are always wrong but I can't help but thinking that AK and JJ are just too good to fold shorthanded. It's good that you consider factors such as stack sizes and FE but I seriously think you are overestimating your ability especially with blinds this high. And as you move up in limits your weak tight style is going to catch up to you. You yourself give examples of how powerful the big stack can be. Think of how your ROI will be impacted if you could get your hands on the big stack once in a while.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
'rolen: you're describing your play as classic weak tight, and then justifying individual plays with results. that's just not good.'

I'll clarify :

I definately err on the side of weak-tight in my calling options, certainly not in my raising ones, more LAG. Fortunately for my bankroll I seem to be able to take the best of both extremes rather than the worst. About the KK, I was really inferring that for Dali to make that move he must've had a strong read that the people in front were super-tight in their calling requirements (like me) in that situation.

Obviously I have plenty to learn

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to think this way as well. I garnered me a 40% ITM and a 5.7% ROI. Maybe it was variance, but maybe it was because the few times I did call and was dominated/sucked out on, my stack was smaller than it could've/should've been and I busted out.

[sofere]

Thanks...I was trying to draw a bow around it but failed miserably [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you run an EV calc on a push here


[/ QUOTE ]

Would you like eastbay to make you a ham sandwich too? How about washing your car while he's at it?

You should be happy that eastbay even bothers to respond to these silly questions.

You know how to compute ICM, or you should take the time to figure it out. eastbay's tool is not required to do this (though it certainly makes things easier).

Actually, you should just buy his tool to help you (and after all the help he's given you.)

[Rolen]

Now that you mention it, a ham sandwich would be awesome right now

Hold the mayo