NBA Draft

Boris · #1 05-27-2003, 02:05 PM

If you had the #1 pick who would you draft? Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James?

My opinion is that James is overhyped so it would be hard to get any good value with the pick if you're a GM. I also really like the way Anthony played in the NCAA Tourney. Watching the guy move on the court makes me think he will be a slam dunk in the NBA.

On the other hand, the track record of guys being drafted directly out of high school is very, very good so the safer pick might be to go with James.

M2d · #2 05-27-2003, 02:58 PM

Given that he's a local product, I think that James is a no brainer for Cleveland. I like Milicic, though, just for the potential he brings. With James, you know what you're getting, and can project him four or five years down the road. Milicic, though, could be magic-like (or Shawn bradley like, on the downside).

IrishHand · #3 05-28-2003, 12:46 AM

I'd rank Milicic #1 and James a close #2. Milicic should be phenomenal - his game has no holes. He simply needs maturity, strength and conditioning - the normal NBA superstar-in-waiting holes. James has a wider range of possibilities, although it seems pretty clear that his worst-case scenario will be Penny Hardaway-like (top out at 20ppg, 7apg, 6 rpg - something like that). His best-case scenario, of course, is Hall-of-Famedom. Anthony is a very good player, but I don't even think he's necessarily a lock for #3. Strange things can happen leading up to draft day.

In my mind, the top 2 are obvious. The media appears to be trying to make it a clear top 3 with Anthony. However, Detroit took all of 5 minutes after the lottery to basically announce they were taking Milicic (Dumars declared his love, but retreated somewhat and said "we'll still work other guys out" - NBAspeak for "we'll still explore our other options in case Milicic dies"). Anthony had an outstanding freshman year at Syracuse, and played great in the NCAAs, but I still have a tough time seeing him as an impact player in the NBA. There's no doubt he'll be a very good player and a potential All-Star, but I just can't see him being special in the way Milicic should be and James could be.

Also...couldn't let this one go without a comment:
On the other hand, the track record of guys being drafted directly out of high school is very, very good so the safer pick might be to go with James.
There is nothing safe about drafting high schoolers and history bears that out. The track record of guys being drafted out of high school is decidedly marginal overall. Some have become stars (Bryant, McGrady, Garnett, O'Neal), while some have been average (Harrington, Miles) and some have been awful to utterly useless (Bender, Stevenson, Leon Smith) - I reserve judgement on the more recent crowd, although it doesn't look good for them (Brown, Curry, Chandler, et al). I suspect that most NBA personnel guys would say that there's a lot more risk associated with drafting high schoolers relative to college guys - even underclassmen. That's why Anthony, with all of ONE year of post-high school hoops in him, is seen as a more polished player. Contrast him with Duncan, who was drafted at #1 after his senior year and went to All-Star status immediately. Everyone knew that Duncan would be an impact player from day 1. That's not going to happen anytime soon, if ever again. Regardless of how good James, Milicic or Anthony is, they'll be ugly to watch for a couple years at least. Even the Kobes, McGradys and Garnetts of the world struggled through much of their first 100+ games.

JTG51 · #4 05-28-2003, 12:56 AM

Just curious IrishHand, have you actually seen Milicic play? I keep hearing people rave about him, but none of them could pick him out of a police lineup.

JTG51 · #5 05-28-2003, 01:03 AM

I think James over Anthony is the no brainer pick of the century though. I like Anthony, I watched a bunch of his games this year and rooted for Syracuse to win it all (once UConn was out). I think he'll be a very good NBA player. He'll probalby make a bunch of all star teams, I doubt anyone thinks he'll be an all time great though. James has a chance to be really, really special. His up side is just way too high too pass up.

IrishHand · #6 05-28-2003, 01:04 AM

I've seen Anthony play a half-dozen games. I've seen James highlights on ESPN. I've seen Milicic highlights on ESPN. Of course, my opinions on the latter two are based almost exclusively on the comments I've read by NBA scouts and personnel folks.

I keep hearing people rave about him, but none of them could pick him out of a police lineup.
I could pick him out of a police lineup, as I suspect all of the aforementioned scouts and personnel folks could. I suspect you're referring to mindless reporters who simply pawn off comments by scouts as their own and form glowing reviews. (FYI, he's a 7' tall teenager with hair that's obviously dyed blond - not that tough to pick out of a crowd. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img])

JTG51 · #7 05-28-2003, 01:20 AM

I suspect you're referring to mindless reporters who simply pawn off comments by scouts as their own and form glowing reviews.

Actually, I was refering mostly to my friends.

I have to admit, if he's as good as some say (Rick Majerus has watched him quite a bit and just raves about him) the James/Milicic decision is an interesting one. I still think passing on LeBron would be a mistake though. Milicic is still a big risk. James is as sure a thing as a high school player can be.

FYI, he's a 7' tall teenager with hair that's obviously dyed blond - not that tough to pick out of a crowd.

What are you talking about? I know lots of guys like that. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Boris · #8 05-28-2003, 01:14 PM

According the names you listed only 3 of the 9 high school draftees were total busts. I think that's a pretty good record for highschoolers. Certainly safer than drafting out of college.

Boris · #9 05-28-2003, 01:20 PM

"James has a chance to be really, really special. His up side is just way too high too pass up."

Doesn't James already have a $90m shoe contract? There is no upside for James. He will likely capture all of his residual value before he even plays an NBA game.

How can you say that James over Anthony is a no brainer pick of the century when James has played only against high school kids and Anthony has played againts top caliber college players in games that mattered?

J.A.Sucker · #10 05-28-2003, 02:12 PM

Hi Boris,

It's hard to tell which player will be the best because all have had different levels of exposure and playing competition. The European drafting process is a joke; these personel scouting reports vary from day to day with most of these players, based on a single day's viewing by some scout who watched practice. Really, if a guy was a super scout, he'd be a head coach now (at least an assistant), so I take these things at face value.

Here's what we know about the big 3 this year:

1. LeBron: He's a man-child who can fly. His shot is a little weak, but he's cocky and this is what helps superstars. Give him the damn ball and watch him score. His body already looks NBA-ready. Who knows if he can play defense? Who cares? He can learn, and he surely has enough athletic ability to do it. The only concern about him is if he can keep his head screwed on straight - his mom is a real gem, and he's gonna have to learn to tell people "no." If he devotes his energy to hoops, he's going to be great. Then again, Lloyd Daniels was the same way...

2. Darko: He's 7 ft tall and apparently can shoot. All the other hype you hear about him is not very clear. However, Dirk was the same way, and he'll be a top-5 player in the NBA for a decade. Darko could be as good as Dirk, but he could also be a Detlef Schrempf (a good player, but not all-time). I doubt that he'll be Shawn Bradley (or Raef LaFrenz) these guys were obviously very slow and uncoordinated. This would be obvious to the people who watched them. Then again, these same brilliant scouts who had 100 college game films for LaFrenz and Bradley also missed the fact that each of these guys plays stiffer than Peter North's tool...

3. Melo: His play is fluid and smooth. The other players in college who I remember moving like this were Eddie Jones, LaPhonzo Ellis, and Vince Carter. Vince proved right away that he could ball; if he weren't a mental case he'd be a top 5 player, but he's a wuss, so he isn't. Eddie was a top-notch player in the NBA before being sent into Miami exile and getting banged up. He was a steal in the mid-first round though. Ellis was also doomed by injuries, but he was a star in the making - his game wasn't as sharp as the others but he played hard and was a tough minded SOB. Melo strikes me as a real competetor and will likely make a superb professional. His game may not be as dynamic as LeBron's (which may even be debatable) but he knows how to win. His shot will likely improve in the NBA, a la Jason Kidd (who couldn't shoot his way out of a paper bag while at Cal), and his body is freekishly long.

Each of these guys has pretty great tools, and the rest of the draft looks weak (though I like Luke Rinenour (sp) from Oregon as a later steal). The draft fit for the top 3 guys is perfect: Darko should go to a better team. If you put him on the Nugs or Cavs, then I don't think he'd become a star, since he can't play the point, and he needs to get the ball. Detroit is perfect, since he won't really have to play that much D, since there are many players who can cover for any deficiencies, but they need somebody who can score besides Chauncey.

LeBron is the obvious choice at #1, and being a local boy it's a slam dunk; the money gained from Cavs jersey sales alone should be enough to justify his picking. Even if he's not the best player, you can't pass up on him because of the possibilty that he'll become god. Nobody criticizes the Rockets for drafting Hakeem over Jordan, because he is a hall-of-famer and he was the obvious #1 pick. Melo will be great with the Nugs, and I can't wait for him to arrive in Denver, since I may be the only living Nugs fan in existence.

All this is just my opinion, but I'm Just Another Sucker.