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#1
04-23-2005, 01:55 PM
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What\'s My Play?
10-20 NLH at the Commerce last night. I'm in the BB when UTG limps, two others limp, SB calls. I check holding the 4c7c, five to the flop. Pot is 100. Flop comes Tc9c7h. SB bets 70. I call. UTG raises 130 more, limpers vanish, SB calls. I call. 700 in the pot when the 4d hits the turn. SB checks, I check, UTG moves in for 950 more. SB calls instantly.
UTG is a bit of a novice but not a total fish: in this spot, he's very likely to have two pair. The SB is much less predictable but generally solid. The SB has another $4K behind the $950 he called on the turn; I have him covered by a shade. What's my play? And should I have bet the turn card? The same night, I related the Hellmuth prop bet to the table, where Philly-boy bet Matusow that AK off beat AKs in a heads-up race. A guy offered me a prop: he gets two black nines, I get AhKs and we run it 101 times. First one to fifty-one gets the money, but he's willing to lay me 9:5. I offered to take it for $100K, but the guy would only take it for what he had on him, which was $3600 against my $2K. I had people coming out of the woodwork for a piece of my action. I laid off $1000 to ensure that I wasn't gonna get taken off in some stranger's hotel room and we ran it. Our side lost, 51-48. More freakishness: at the adjacent 20-40 table, a local pro laid a guy $15K to $14K on a blind race, winner take all. Unhappy, apparently, that he lost that, the local pro did it again with someone else a while later -- this time at even money for $19K. He lost that, too. Niiiice. 
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#4
04-23-2005, 03:25 PM
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Re: What\'s My Play?
[ QUOTE ]
A guy offered me a prop: he gets two black nines, I get AhKs and we run it 101 times. First one to fifty-one gets the money, but he's willing to lay me 9:5. I offered to take it for $100K, but the guy would only take it for what he had on him, which was $3600 against my $2K. I had people coming out of the woodwork for a piece of my action. I laid off $1000 to ensure that I wasn't gonna get taken off in some stranger's hotel room and we ran it. Our side lost, 51-48. [/ QUOTE ] Wow, that's an awful bet. I'm glad for your sake he didn't have more cash.
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#5
04-23-2005, 03:33 PM
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Re: What\'s My Play?
Yes, well, after he won he was willing to run it again. But I couldn't take rapidfire shuffling and dealing for another half hour in a stranger's hotel room.
Still, it was a memorable event.
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#6
04-23-2005, 03:47 PM
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Re: What\'s My Play?
Why would anyone want to give you a bet like that unless they had a special edge?
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#7
04-23-2005, 03:49 PM
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Re: What\'s My Play?
The black 9's are favored to win 52.4 % of the time. But the guy was offering 9:5 odds. So the math works out great in your favor. But given the choice of someone being that stupid vs cheating I'd have to assume that they were cheating.
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#8
04-23-2005, 03:57 PM
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Re: What\'s My Play?
[ QUOTE ]
The black 9's are favored to win 52.4 % of the time. But the guy was offering 9:5 odds. So the math works out great in your favor. [/ QUOTE ] No, the nines are a 55% favourite. But even if they were only 52.4 my guess is it's still not a good bet to take ('cos it's run 100 times not once.)
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#9
04-23-2005, 04:06 PM
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Re: What\'s My Play?
Ooops sorry you are right about the 55% - thought the AK were suited. Oh I get the idea now - if you run it once the 9:5 odds are good. If you run it a billion times then the 9's will always win. So where does 100 times fall. Interesting math problem...
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#10
04-23-2005, 04:43 PM
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Re: What\'s My Play?
Of course; now I see the trick. I'll run some sims on Probe and see what the distributions look like. This is a sucker bet, but man, you could fool a stack of people with it -- seriously, I could have laid off $20K in action in a heartbeat.
I feel like an idiot. Live and learn.
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