Value Bet?

Spartan1983 · #1 05-01-2005, 10:31 AM

Utg +1 only 3rd hand at table. BB LP over about 40 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.

River: (10.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero??

95Aero · #2 05-01-2005, 10:36 AM

I would probably check the river, river could be exactly what one of them has been waiting for completing flush draws and a couple of straight draws.

(At the same time I'd be very tempted to bet for value with the high set =)

chief444 · #3 05-01-2005, 10:42 AM

Bet/call.

Chris Daddy Cool · #4 05-01-2005, 10:45 AM

for the love of all mothers, bet.

PokerBob · #5 05-01-2005, 12:17 PM

The question here is not "Do I bet?", but rather "Do I call a raise?".

thejameser · #6 05-01-2005, 12:27 PM

no read on utg?

Chris Dow · #7 05-01-2005, 12:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Utg +1 only 3rd hand at table. BB LP over about 40 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.

River: (10.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero??

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap. Do you see why? I'll let others elaborate.

cassady · #8 05-01-2005, 01:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The question here is not "Do I bet?", but rather "Do I call a raise?".

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I'll say out the outset I think not value betting when scare cards hit may be a consistent leak in my game. In two hours of play last night, in three or four instances I checked the river against one or two opponents, it was checked behind, and I took the pot down. If half of those people would have called, that's a big bet an hour leak. So I'm re-evaluating this a lot right now........

BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you? Probably something like a J-10 that went inproved to two pair on the river. Maybe an AJ if it was a passive player. But a set would have fought on the turn and the river given the draws that are out there.

I think the odds of being called and winning are less than 50%. I think even faced with a raise I'd pay to see the cards when holding top set. So the times we're unsuccessful will cost us two bets. For me, this is a check-call situation.

Now, re-evaluating my value betting, I'm totally open to flaws in this analysis.

EDIT: just woke up......didn't notice the player was closing the action. This makes it closer to a bet. But I'm still not sure who would call without having us beat.

Chief911 · #9 05-01-2005, 01:48 PM

This seems like a pretty easy check behind. Two significant draws came in on the river. You'll hate to call a check raise wont you?

Nick

PokerBob · #10 05-01-2005, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]

BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any pair. A retarded 2-pair. Sometimes Ace-high. IMO betting this river is +EV, and I don't think it is close.