NL Preflop Question #2

[Jeebus]

Based on the idea of "plenty chips", which i would assume to mean at least 50 BB as compared to 15 I think calling becomes a bad play. I still prefer a fold to a push, but with the difference in chips the push would have to be correct over the call. If you call on this hand, you have no way of placing your opponent on any hand. He could still have any range of these hands so any board containing a 9, 10, j, Q, K, or A would have to looked at carefully. This combined with the fact that he will push every time, should have you thinking of folding when any of these cards come up(except in the nice 10, j, k combination). If you push preflop you win 1/3 of the time and remove his ability to bluff off the pot which seems like it would occur quite frequently.
I still think a fold is better though.

[Grasshoppa]

Methodology as before, with 99 added as an opponent holding. If you call, then push on exactly the flops you should push with, EV of call is about -26, and you push 40% of flops. So calling is still a mistake.

I ran two sims, with EVs of -25.6, -25.6, and push percentages of 39.6 and 39.9, so longer sims would probably not change the results by much.

Anticipating part 3, if you also include 88 in opponent holdings, EV of call becomes -20 with a push percentage of 40.2% (based on two runs: EVs of -20.1 and -19.5, and push percentages of 40.1% and 40.6%). Pretty similar to part 2.

Clearly the more hands that are added, the more futile it becomes to try to do it "by hand." Simulation becomes the only reliable method.

[chuddo]

am i the only one finding these questions mundane, uninteresting, and thus quite lame?

is question 3 going to be: "utg goes all in for an amount half of your stack. he will only do this with AA or AK. folded to you in the BB with 22. what do you do?"

please, for this forum there is more insight to be found in a thread about 'who of the nguyen's has the prettiest eyes?'

[Grasshoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
am i the only one finding these questions mundane, uninteresting, and thus quite lame?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your question 3 is trivial, but EV of call for David's questions was very interesting. I wouldn't have seen it unless he posted it here since 90% of the posts on the theory forum are very weak. At least this forum has entertainment value. But there is a lot of whining here.

[Grasshoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
40.2% (based on ... 40.1% and 40.6%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh. Fat fingered the average.

[Allinlife]

I don't see what david is trying to learn from asking such questions..they seem so impractical

[Beavis68]

Math for a push.

23% of the time you win 130
77% of the time he calls
of that 28% you win 610-280=330
72% you loose 280
(23%*130)+77%*((28%*430)+(72%*-280)= -54 chips looks like a push is -EV.

[Grasshoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see what david is trying to learn from asking such questions..they seem so impractical

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you can't do a page of math in the middle of a hand, but if you know the "correct" answer to similar situations, you're a step ahead.

[Beavis68]

For calling.

I estimate that you will flop top pair about 30% of the time.

So you will fold ~ 70% of the time and lose 80

of the other 30%

60% you will push and win 330
40% push and lose 280

this is a -30 chip EV

[Jordan Olsommer]

[ QUOTE ]
Math for a push.

23% of the time you win 130
77% of the time he calls
of that 28% you win 610-280=330
72% you loose 280
(23%*130)+77%*((28%*430)+(72%*-280)= -54 chips looks like a push is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your math is slightly off here - since we have AQ, there are only 3 ways Villain can have AA or QQ, and only 12 ways he can have AK. All the other pairs he can have six ways, making for 42 possibilities, 12 of which (6 99s and 6 TTs) he will fold to a push, or 12/42 = 2/7 =~ 28.6%. The winrates for AQo vs. {AA-99,AK} are correct, though - using this you get an EV of -41.