$40/$80 hand at the Borgata

[ActionBob]

The preflop call is pretty close either way. If you're not sure whether to bet here or not then you probably should be leaning towards folding preflop. As for the turn, its a pretty easy bet.

-ActionBob

[DanZ]

It's really likely one of the players has a higher set. It's also fairly likely the blind made a straight. I am especially worried about the tight player who cold called the raise preflop - aces, queens and tens are favorite hands for tight players making this cold call. There's a lot not to like about this card.

Otoh, there's even more not to like about a free card. If you bet and it's 2 cold back to you, you may consider folding, but worry about that when it happens. Even if the BB raises you with a straight, you will knock out the cold callers AQ and earn up to 4 more outs. Or, the BB raises with aces up and earns you some $ while perhaps saving the pot for you if the tight cold caller has kings or AQ.

Once the river comes, you can get passive again because the board is very scary. 4th street is not the place for that in a large pot unless it's near certain you are beat. I don't think we are at that point yet.

Dan Z.

[drbk2]

Thanks for the advice guys.

When the BB (a woman by the way) took forever and called the flop, I gave her an open ended straight draw or a KQ/QJ hand. But I thought an open ender was much more likely since I thought the dude to my right in cutoff almost certainly had AQ. Also, I don't think she would take as long to call with top pair since of the times I played with her in the past I have never seen her once lay down top pair on the flop.

So anyway, I bet the turn and got checkraised by the big blind. Cutoff thinks for a while and mucks and I call.

River is a 5. She bets I raise and she calls. And she tables KJ.

I posted this hand because it was one of those hands where on the turn I'm pretty sure I'm beat before I even bet. But I did anyway because I believed giving a free card would be much more disasterous than getting checkraised. So my next question is, how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to check the card here on the turn?

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
So my next question is, how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to check the card here on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Se'd have to jump out of her chair when the Ace hit, flash me her boobs, and hold up her KJ "matador style" on her forehead before I check that turn. Answer your question? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[drbk2]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So my next question is, how sure do you have to be that you're beat in order to check the card here on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Se'd have to jump out of her chair when the Ace hit, flash me her boobs, and hold up her KJ "matador style" on her forehead before I check that turn. Answer your question? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


Haha yes, thank you.

[Victor]

this is the easiest bet ever.

the real question is whether you should 3bet a turn checkraise.

[drbk2]

[ QUOTE ]
this is the easiest bet ever.

the real question is whether you should 3bet a turn checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will admit that the benefits of betting outweigh the benefits of checking. however, I think 3 betting here is ridiculous

[DanZ]

As alluded to in my post, you can get 4 more outs when the cold caller mucks aces up on the turn. 4 outs is not worth 2 big bets, since the pot is not going to be 20 big bets. But, the pot is very big - about 10 big bets before the turn action.

So, let's anaylze the following in a fantastically crude way:

You are against a straight and set. You will likely pay 1 bet and fold when it is 3 back to you. You cost yourself 1 out in a pot that would otherwise project to be about 14 big bets. However, you will likely lose that same bet on the river, and will save perhaps calling 2 on the river - though you could safely fold to 2 on the river here, or fold if a k or j comes. Let's approxiamte and say that this costs about 1/3 of a big bet on average over checking behind, but is not the case all that often - say it's 20% of the time.

let's say you are against a set from the cold caller and 2 pair from the BB. This is analagous to before, except there is danger the higher set will not raise, and you get trapped for paying off twice. Give this another 20%, and it will, on average cost more, but you get your 1 out draw much of the time. Call this scenario a 1.5 big bet loser.

Cold caller has KQ or KK, BB has straight - well, you get check raised and may lose someone drawing dead. This is a cost of about 3/4 of 2 bets on the turn, with no upside real upside. Call this 10% of the time.

Let's say you are against aces up twice. Now, you win 2 extra bets twice as they likely both call you down. Since they are drawing to very little, we can call this a 1.8 bet profit or so, and say this happens 10% of the time.
Another 10%, you are against aces up and a draw of KK or KQ, and this is worth roughly 1.6 big bets to get called on the turn in 2 spots. If the BB rasies aces up, this is even more profitable for you, so let's stick with the conservative number.

Let's try this one - BB has J9, and other player has aces up. Same as above, but your hand is worse. call this 5%, and profit is about 1.4 BB.

Now the most likely scenario - 25% for straight in BB, aces up in cold caller. We get raised on the turn, which costs us about 1.6 BB since we have at most 8 outs, however, this bet saves us a 12 big bet pot by buying us 4 outs. This is worth about 1.2 big bets. In other words, this scenario has a very small cost.

In a nutshell, 35% of the time, the bet is very profitable, 45% of the time, it's slightly unprofitable, and 20% of the time, it's very unprofitable.

This makes the bet correct. Notice the really bad outcome is when you are against a higher set and for whatever reason cannot fold, and this only happens when the BB does not have a straight. Since the BB has a straight is only about a small bet loser on your bet , you would need to weigh the other scenarios against that, with the good scenario more profitable than the bad by a half bet, and the good about a 2-1 favorite over the truly bad, you have this:

-slightly bad*.4 + (1-slightly bad)*2/3*1.7 - (1-slightly bad)*1/3* -1.2 =
-slightly bad*.4 + (1-slightly bad) *.8 =
break even is 7/12 or about 66%.

The most contentious assumption among these is the likelihood of set over set being so high. This translates to a much higher % of "BB has straight" for a break even point. If we reduce that figure to half of what I have, the bet break even % for BB has straight is around 75%.

Dan Z.

[tpir90036]

I know you said the villain was a bad player... but given that he called 3 cold on the flop, that shrinks his hand range significantly IMO. Assuming the thinking was legit that puts him on exactly KJ or just top pair. But it might have been some hollywood thinking so QT or TT might be possible too.

Anyway, once the turn comes, you are behind most of the logical range of hands... but given that you said they were "pretty bad"... I would still bet since they might have show up with something illogical like QJ. I think you might need the board to pair though.

-tpir