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#1
09-25-2005, 06:01 AM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
[ QUOTE ]
I think that you got every street wrong except the river. Fold pf. Bet the flop. Just call the turn. Also, you should include reads on the players involved (PT stats or at least something). [/ QUOTE ] This is also wrong. E A S Y flop check. The only thing I change up on this hand is calling the turn. 
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#2
09-25-2005, 12:19 AM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
Preflop: If your opponents are as bad as they appear, this is one of the easiest places ever to cold call. Just from this hand this game seems extremely passive, meaning you can draw for as much or as little as you like.
Flop: Assuming the above is true, a flop bet accomplishes nothing, as no better hand will fold. Ever. Nobody with 6 outs will fold. Ever. Nobody with 3 outs will fold. Ever. Check the flop, its not close. Turn: I think this is the interesting street. While it appears you are getting the odds to raise for value, I wonder about something that has been discussed earlier. Other posters have indicated that you should take into account the likelyhood that others are calling with your outs in their hand (say a spade), and you shouldn't count all the "unseen" spades as an out. I'm not sure about this either way, as it goes against my very limited poker math knowledge. Hopefully somebody far smarter than me can shed light on the topic. River: Too bad you missed, but look on the bright side. You're clearly in a great game. lf
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#3
09-25-2005, 12:31 AM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
No reason to bet the flop. That turn card will have a very big effect on the value of your hand, and is more likely to make your hand nearly worthless than it is to help you. You are also very likely to get check-raised (or worse) and then you not only aren't getting a free river card, you are now overpaying to see the turn which you could have had for free.
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#4
09-25-2005, 08:20 AM
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Okay, Quick Poll
Everybody seems to agree on the flopcheck as do i, but where lies the borderline for checking vs. betting this flop?
Ill bet this flop if it gets upto 4 opponents, 5/6 if they're tight(and i got a pretty good handle on the cr'se possibility of the EP-players). Is that spewing?
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#5
09-25-2005, 07:51 PM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
I would fold this preflop. To all the folks arguing that this is an easy preflop call, let me ask you something. Would you call with A2o here? My guess is that all of you would fold. If so, how did an extra 6% turn an easy fold into an easy call?
The problem with this hand is not just that you're not going to make a flush that often and not just that your kicker is absolute crap so you can't make any money even if your magic A flops. The biggest problem is that you're being asked to put in 1 BB with this hand preflop. This seriously kills your implied odds. Had the pot not been raised, I would limp for 1 SB with this many limpers, but 1 BB is too much.
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#6
09-25-2005, 08:15 PM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
I'm slightly confused by your implied odds statement. True you're putting in 1bb as opposed to 1sb, but so is the rest of the field. So...
If you call 1sb preflop, flop a flush draw and call 1.5bb to get there your investing 2bb to see the river card. there would be 3.5 bb in the pot preflop. Combine this with 1.5bb from other players on the flop and 2bb on the turn (3 flop callers and 2 turn callers) there ends up being 7bb in the pot when you see the river card. I don't pretend to be an expert at all of this, but that looks to me like risking 2bb to see a river card in a 7bb pot, or 3.5 to 1. Now if you call 1bb preflop, that total investment increases by 1/2 of 1 bb, so a total of 2.5bb. The pot size, however, increases dramatically (3.5bb, assuming same post flop action). So now your risking 2.5bb to win at least 10.5BB which is 4.2:1. Both examples assume that you collect no bets on the river (since obviously you won't hit). The chance of flopping a draw in this situation remains the same whether preflop is raised or not, doesn't it? Like I said i'm not claiming that anything I stated above is correct or applicable, and if it isn't please correct me, but I don't see how the pot being bigger preflop hurts your implied odds. Wouldn't you consider raising with this hand if there were that many limpers to you? I would. Maybe thats a mistake, but its one that is recommended in HPFAP. Would you raise this hand out of your BB w/ 6 players in the pot? I would, again as recommended in HPFAP. I'm really not trying to be combative, but small suited aces have always been a problem for me, and i'm really trying to identify situations where playing them is a good move, and too me this looks like about as good of a spot as you can ask for, especially if the blinds are loose. lf
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#7
09-25-2005, 08:40 PM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
[ QUOTE ]
I'm slightly confused by your implied odds statement. True you're putting in 1bb as opposed to 1sb, but so is the rest of the field. So... [/ QUOTE ] For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that all you care about is hitting a flush. (Obviously, you may also win by hitting an A or two pair or whatever, but I'm just trying to make this simple to illustrate what I'm saying.) If the flush is all you care about, you need approximately 15:1 to make your preflop call correct. So let's consider the two situations (raised vs unraised) separately. Raised --------------- Making the liberal assumption that SB, BB, and UTG will all call and no one will 3-bet, you're getting 6:1 immediate odds. Clearly, there is a deficiency between the odds you're getting right now (6:1) and the odds you should be getting (15:1) to make your call correct. This means that if you call, you're telling me that you'll be able to win another 9 BB from postflop action those times that you actually make the flush. I emphasize postflop because you cannot double-count the preflop action. Unraised --------------- If we once again assume that SB will call and neither he nor the BB will raise, you're getting the same 6:1, but now you only need to make another 9 SB postflop to make up for the deficiency between the immediate odds and the odds you should be getting. What I described above is what people refer to as "implied odds." Now tell me, which one do you think is easier to make up for postflop, a 9 BB deficiency or a 9 SB deficiency? And do you think you'll be able to make another 9 BB those times that you actually hit your flush? I could also have made the same point by just exaggerating the preflop scenario. That is, assume that it's capped by the time it gets to you and some magic oracle is telling you that the same 6 opponents will see the flop together with you. Would you call 4 SBs cold with your A2s? If so, you're saying that now you'll be able to make another 18 BB from postflop action if you hit your flush. And so on....
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#8
09-25-2005, 10:44 PM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm slightly confused by your implied odds statement. True you're putting in 1bb as opposed to 1sb, but so is the rest of the field. So... [/ QUOTE ] For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that all you care about is hitting a flush. (Obviously, you may also win by hitting an A or two pair or whatever, but I'm just trying to make this simple to illustrate what I'm saying.) If the flush is all you care about, you need approximately 15:1 to make your preflop call correct. So let's consider the two situations (raised vs unraised) separately. Raised --------------- Making the liberal assumption that SB, BB, and UTG will all call and no one will 3-bet, you're getting 6:1 immediate odds. Clearly, there is a deficiency between the odds you're getting right now (6:1) and the odds you should be getting (15:1) to make your call correct. This means that if you call, you're telling me that you'll be able to win another 9 BB from postflop action those times that you actually make the flush. I emphasize postflop because you cannot double-count the preflop action. Unraised --------------- If we once again assume that SB will call and neither he nor the BB will raise, you're getting the same 6:1, but now you only need to make another 9 SB postflop to make up for the deficiency between the immediate odds and the odds you should be getting. What I described above is what people refer to as "implied odds." Now tell me, which one do you think is easier to make up for postflop, a 9 BB deficiency or a 9 SB deficiency? And do you think you'll be able to make another 9 BB those times that you actually hit your flush? I could also have made the same point by just exaggerating the preflop scenario. That is, assume that it's capped by the time it gets to you and some magic oracle is telling you that the same 6 opponents will see the flop together with you. Would you call 4 SBs cold with your A2s? If so, you're saying that now you'll be able to make another 18 BB from postflop action if you hit your flush. And so on.... [/ QUOTE ] You mean SBs. Just going from odds of flopping a flush (not how much u win if u hit an ace). 8:1. So w/ a raise multiply that to 16:2 now subtract...u need to make up 16sbs for your 2sb investment. If we dont consider the blinds coming along, we can for sure count on UTG calling...16-9.5 = 6.5SBs of implied odds u have to make up postflop if u flop a draw. Now if we consider BB coming we have to make up 5.5sbs. Depends on who blinds are but if sb and bb call w/ a ton of hands, best case u would have 12sbs in the pot (granted that is BEST CASE scenario). Most of the time u are in position where u have to make up 5.5sbs postflop. Which w/ a game this loose u can probably do. This is only counting the times u would only by hitting a flush and not the times u hit your ace and take it down.
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#9
09-25-2005, 11:05 PM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
[ QUOTE ]
If the flush is all you care about, you need approximately 15:1 to make your preflop call correct. [/ QUOTE ] Way over-simplified. When you flop no draw you get away cheaply. It's like you have two stages of implied odds. First you only continue past the flop when you get something worth playing. Second you get extra bets when you make your hand that you don't have to pay when you miss. In addition to the flush, you are also very likely to win when the board contains A2, 22, AA, 345, and it's still somewhat possible to win or split with a lone A. You can also flop one type of draw and then back door your way into one of the other winning situations. Finally there are those rare situations where you win a huge pot - flush over flush, flush vs. set, etc.
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#10
09-25-2005, 11:16 PM
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Re: A2s in a 10/20 game. flop and turn questions.
Not to mention that you need not even hit any of the board in order to win the hand.
The power of position. Barron Vangor Toth BarronVangorToth.com
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