Preflop confusion

[DeeJ]

I think with 99 it's got to be slightly better in value terms for the extra bet to be going in early. You may have the initiative after the flop, too, if there is an Ace it would be hard to call a bet for anyone without one (or a draw).

It is too complex to work out all likely/possible combinations of holdings and flops. Against the range stated I would certainly 3-bet, you can't have the fish calling cheap and picking up some random 2 pair....

[bicyclekick]

I've never known the 'correct play' in these spots and they don't come up that often and when they have sometimes I've raised, sometimes I've called, and if i recall I've folded a few times but it was a little earlier/tighter raiser or something.

[DeathDonkey]

This brings up something I wonder as a lurker here...which pocket pair is your (your = anyone who wants to answer) cutoff for playing in this pot at all. I think 99 has to be pretty close. Depending on what I thought of the preflop raiser's postflop skill, I think I would be folding 88 here and having a hard time deciding what to do with 99 and TT.

-DeathDonkey

[PassiveCaller]

.

Against this type of BB i like to call more often. Your 99 will play better against one opponent, but since the BB already has a couple chips in the pot he's not going anywhere a majority of the time when u 3 bet. That being said... i'm CRing the PFR on almost every flop.

TZ

[DcifrThs]

i agree w/ JV and stox.... i have no clue where you came from but you definately have a lot to add.

note to TEX: you pmed me asking why you were met with such hostility in the forum and concluded it was because you were new. i pointed you towards lestat's entrance and we now have another data point. the above new poster within his first 10 posts provided excellent analysis and i sincerely hope he continues to post on this board. you came out "guns blazing" as you put it without any real knowledge yet assuming you were very good at poker. tempus hasn't said anything except the analysis he/she puts forth. and its very good analysis. see the difference?

onto the analysis at hand:

one thing you left out, tempus, is that if you call, you will be able to leverage your relative position very well.

22/12/2 (very aggressive postflop fairly tight preflop and aggressive preflop) is going to bet near 100% of the flops that come down.

JV is OOP here and calling gives him relative positional power as an option. i think this is close as 88 for me is a call and TT (what i thought was an easy) 3bet. (i like to compare similar hands in the same spot and see how close the decision is). given your pokerstove analysis TT is indeed a 3 bet and 88 indeed a call.

but the fact that PFraiser has position and the fact that you are putting in 3 bets here and likely betting most flops, you have to factor into the equation the expected gain/loss of one sb that you put out there on the flop. when you call, you gain/lose fewer sbs so if this is a close spot, it doesn't matter a whole lot but does add a lot to variance if you 3 bet, especially if its capped by PFraiser (who would then have initiative AND position...very dangerous indeed)

if this was live and a 5 bet cap, a 3bet mitigates the above b/c the PFraiser would now be more hesitant to 4bet w/o a hand that beats you or is very very strong against you (KK/QQ/AK) /b/c it may come back to him for yet another bet.

its also VERY important to factor in the PFraiser's postflop agression. if he is very aggressive postflop you may end up making large postflop mistakes (folding the best hand or calling/betting w/ very few outs). how will you react when you get raised on the flop w/ an overcard and a flush draw out there when the bb called pf and called your flop continuation bet? its tough, but you'll mostly fold and its the PFraiser that has used the bb's presence in the pot to manipulate you out of it if he didn't have you beat.

further, you have to look at the possible turn action.

if you bet and are called, and we know PFraiser is aggressive, he may raise a turn when he's behind you for a free showdown forcing you into yet another tough decision.

this post by JV is very good b/c im not sure the people he asked took ALL of this into account and getting it in writing helps all of us.

im sure there is more to this analysis but thats all i got off the top right now.

Barron

[Joe Tall]

To throw a wrench in the 3-betting camp for the sake of discussion:

Have we considered the times that just calling allows us to c/r the BB out of the pot? EP will likely contiuation bet as we also know he'll likely miss and we get it HU w/a c/r and take it down with a turn bet?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
To throw a wrench in the 3-betting camp for the sake of discussion:

Have we considered the times that just calling allows us to c/r the BB out of the pot as EP will likely contiuation bet as we also know he'll likely miss and we get it HU and take it down with a turn bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

yup.

[ QUOTE ]
one thing you left out, tempus, is that if you call, you will be able to leverage your relative position very well.

22/12/2 (very aggressive postflop fairly tight preflop and aggressive preflop) is going to bet near 100% of the flops that come down.


[/ QUOTE ]

Barron

[Paluka]

I think just calling and 3 betting is close. I do not consider folding because calling and getting a 3 way pot with one donk involved seems too good to pass up.
The reasons to call are similar to the reasons why I sometimes cold call from the small blind when the button open raises. I want to give the big blind a chance to play badly if he will call with complete trash and my hand plays decent multiway (I don't mean to imply I would coldcall with 99 if it were a button raise, of course) I think having a third guy in the hand who plays badly makes it possible to get more out of the set value for my hand, and also makes it less likely that I fold a winner because the PFR has to play more straightforward with a third guy in the hand.
I think this would be a good spot to cold call preflop, but then bet just about any flop with only one overcard. There is a good shot the fishy big blind will peel on a lot of flops with marginal holdings, and now the pfr will have a difficult time continuing the hand against 2 opponents without a solid holding, making it unlikely you will be moved off a winner.

[PassiveCaller]

I don't see how calling is making him "play badly". Even some of the worst hands he'll call with aren't really playing that badly (think of magnitude of error) calling one in the BB, while if they call 2 they are playing badly.

You're only making a set 1 in 7.5 times, if you're playing for set value here and think you're behind this changes everything while otherwise (if you are ahead which you'll rate to be) you'll be giving up more equity then UTG in most situations by letting the BB in even with as little as 72o.