Trying to improve my river play #1

[beachbum]

I think a big leak in my game is not value betting enough on the river, or when I thinly value bet not folding to a raise.

I'm pretty sure villain is a 2+2'er. Obvious river fold?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.70 BB

did you think about a c/r on the flop?

Check-raise the flop. Don't wait until the river when the pot is large to find out you're outkicked.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Check-raise the flop. Don't wait until the river when the pot is large to find out you're outkicked.

[/ QUOTE ]
ok but what about when villain 3-bet us with 66, 88, 99, TT, or JJ?

and if he has AK, what if he fears AQ? and if he has AQ, will he conveniently tell you he has it? if he has AJ, is he reraising?

given a good opponent, our position, our hand, and the board, there is not much we can do to not be violated in this hand. c/c, c/c, bet is exploitable by good players. he'll often fold worse hands, he'll raise better ones, and sometimes he'll raise a worse one (this makes it hard to play the river). for this reason i would just check call all three streets, hoping that he value bets KQ or KK on the river.

Normally, I might do this. And I might even c/c after c/r-ing the flop. But with this board hitting so many draws, I want to lead. Odd are he has an underpair or some sort of draw much more often than a stronger A, correct?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Odd are he has an underpair or some sort of draw much more often than a stronger A, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
read the board again. what draws?

and are we happy to check raise when he has underpairs?

[ QUOTE ]
read the board again. what draws?

[/ QUOTE ]

Broadway straight draws or two hearts.

[ QUOTE ]
and are we happy to check raise when he has underpairs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on our table image. If he thinks we're full of [censored], then yes. If not, then I guess that might fold him if he doesn't improve on the turn. I don't know, maybe I should stove it.

I just have this gut feeling that free cards are bad here, but I can't justify it. Obviously in hindsight, we see that he took no free cards, which narrows his range a bit. But on the flop we didn't know that.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
read the board again. what draws?

[/ QUOTE ]

Broadway straight draws or two hearts.

[/ QUOTE ]

3betting KJ against an UTG TAG raise is not standard, so we are looking at K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] specifically that fit this criteria.

OK, I guess it really depends on if he would lay down a middle pair here. Here's a stoved result, including middle pairs:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> 36,168 games 0.005 secs 7,233,600 games/sec

Board: 7h Ah Qd 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.7057 % 53.82% 03.88% { ATo }
Hand 2: 42.2943 % 38.41% 03.88% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, ATo+, KJo+ } </pre><hr />

Without the middle pairs on the turn:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> 29,040 games 0.016 secs 1,815,000 games/sec

Board: 7h Ah Qd 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.2521 % 47.42% 04.83% { ATo }
Hand 2: 47.7479 % 42.91% 04.83% { QQ+, 99, A9s+, KTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }</pre><hr />

Not a huge difference if our check-raise folds out the middle, non-set, pairs. But I guess since we're only slightly ahead and possibly way behind, playing it cautiously might be better.

[beachbum]

Ok, let's see what a c/r would accomplish. If he's got 77, AQ, A7, AA, or QQ he just smooth calls the flop c/r and then raises when I lead the turn, or raises if I lead the river. Or if he's got AK, he is more likely to 3-bet the flop instead of waiting until a big street to raise. But he might 3 bet hands like AJ or AT too.

If he bet/calls the flop and raises the turn, I can fold and save 1.5 BB compared to the way I played this hand.

If he bet/calls the flop, calls the turn, and raises the river, I'm in the same situation that I was playing the hand the way I did and have spent 0.5 BB more.

If he 3-bets the flop then I c/c down, I spend the same as I did this hand.

The line I took in this hand is pretty standard so I don't let him check behind hands like KK, JJ, TT, 88, AJ, A8o/s, KQ. However, when he raises me I really don't think I'm good here 1 in 10.7 times. He didn't seem like the kind of player who would raise me on the river with a worse hand. A fairly straightforward TAG. Even a specific hand that beats me like AK probably won't raise my river donk.

I don't know, I just think if there was someway to filter my hands in PT, that if I looked at hands where I bet/called the river, I think I've lost money overall on these calls.