Another SS post....Micro views rock!

[IMTheWalrus8]

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Page 86 of SSH reccomends folding easily dominated hands if it comes back to you for two after limping, folding AJ in a multiway pot is the actual example given!


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I don't remember the example in question... your rendition suggests it was offsuit, in which case, I agree. If you're going to quote SSH examples, maybe you can find the ones pertaining to raising any two suited broadway (might be first-in only) in loose games.

In any event, this might be one of those cases Ed Miller talks about with regards to experienced players "taking off the training wheels" and adapting to table conditions. If I'm looking at the early limpers and seeing that they are "any two" guys, I'm going to treat the hand like I'm first-in with dead money already in the pot and outplay them after the flop.

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I just looked this up in SSH - first it says to "tighten up almost as much as you would if cold-calling a raise" when it's two bets back to you pf.

Then the example: you limp from UG, someone else limps, MP raises, button reraises, and BB calls. So with 10.5 small bets in the pot, and two players to act behind you, the recommendation is to call with pocket 8s (and the like), and fold AJo. (p. 86-87)

So there's no discussion of suited hands, but IMO we can call here with connectors JTs and up, and the only one gappers would be AQs and KJs. And isn't this hand a perfect example of folding pf so we don't have tough decisions postflop?

Very interested to see ranges for the rest of you in this situation.

I'm still not sure we shouldn't be reraising the flop.

[MN_Mime]

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And isn't this hand a perfect example of folding pf so we don't have tough decisions postflop?

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Or raising PF instead of limping? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I said to 3bet the flop.

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I don't like a flop 3-bet here because there's basically zero chance that you currently have the best hand and your free card chances are unknown (but doubtful).

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I thought after preflop action, and flop action, against the hand ranges of these guys, that this board and my 3 bet was more than scary enough to make a free card likely.

[gharp]

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I said to 3bet the flop.

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I don't like a flop 3-bet here because there's basically zero chance that you currently have the best hand and your free card chances are unknown (but doubtful).

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I thought after preflop action, and flop action, against the hand ranges of these guys, that this board and my 3 bet was more than scary enough to make a free card likely.

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Well we don't have reads so I don't know what "these guys" are like, but UTG+1 limp+reraised preflop, then raised the flop. I don't see any reason to think he's not capping if you 3-bet -- he seems very interested in building a pot (AA/KK are very, very likely for him, IMO).

Page 271. SSHE. Flop play. Quiz 7.

Similarities? Differences? General thoughts?

[gharp]

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Page 271. SSHE. Flop play. Quiz 7.

Similarities? Differences? General thoughts?

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I was actually thinking about that problem when writing my responses and I had a feeling you might bring it up. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I think there are a couple key differences though:

(1) In that hand, you had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and were trying to fold a preflop raiser who would be facing two bets cold. So if he has any A (which is likely) you'd be happy he folded. Here you have QT so you're hoping he folds specifically AQ or maybe KQ.

(2) The limp+reraise usually indicates a bizarre hand or a monster, and IMO it's much more often a monster. Ed mentions at the end of the problem:

"So, unless you are very unlikely to get a free card, you should probably invest the extra small bet and reraise."

Given the aggression that UTG+1 is showing here, I think the free card is unlikely. I'll admit this could be b/c I've been playing too much 6-max where the aggression is ramped up.

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TBH I think preflop here is very close, theres not much between folding calling or raising, you aren't going to be winning this one very often, but when you do it's going to be a big pot!

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What nobody has pointed out yet is that if you call the preflop 3-bet, the original raiser has yet to act, and the chances of him capping and you needing to spend 3 more bets to see the flop, instead of 2 more, are worth considering.

If it were me, I'd fold this one pre-flop after the 3-bet.

Think of it this way:

We have at least 10% equity. We are putting in just one extra small bet than calling. Putting in 33% of the money with 10% equity. [33%-10%*1sb]
So we are investing only ~(.2) of a small bet extra, possibly .4 if capped. If he {or SB} caps 90% of the time, it costs us on average (.38) small bets more.

On the turn if we get a free card, we have 10% equity{assuming we didn't improve} and are granted that for free.
10% of a 14BB pot = 1.4BB = 2.8sb

Free card 10% of the time = 10%*2.8 = .28sb

So, if we get a free card only 10% of the time, 3betting the flop is only -.1SB.

Now. I gave your arguement a little leeway.

I assumed we only have 10% equity - we have more.
I assumed that someone drops out on the flop - if they don't we have an extra BB on the turn and we are only putting in 25% of the money rather than 33%.
And as I've said, I think we get a free card a little more than 10% of the time.


Let's stick with free card at 10%.
Let's have UTG stick around.
I did some pokerstoving and was surprised to see our hand actually has ~20% equity.

Investment = extra 2sb 90% of the time. 20% equity, putting in 25% of the money. ~(.1sb).
Payoff = Free card 10%*[20% equity of ~15BB] = .3BB = .6sb.

+.5sb.

Free card only 5% of the time is still +.2sb.
Free card only 2% of the time is still +.02sb.

This isn't even factoring in the 11% of the time, you'll make your hand on the turn + the ~30% of the time, cards that improve your hand [J,Q, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] fall.

I like the 3bet.

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Think of it this way:

We have at least 10% equity. We are putting in just one extra small bet than calling. Putting in 33% of the money with 10% equity. [33%-10%*1sb]
So we are investing only ~(.2) of a small bet extra, possibly .4 if capped. If he {or SB} caps 90% of the time, it costs us on average (.38) small bets more.



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This stuff usually makes my head spin but I don't get this .2 figure at all.

We're putting in 1/3 of the money, so every 1sb from us results in an extra 3sb in the pot.

With 10% equity our share of this extra money is .3sb so we lose .7sb for every extra bet, no?


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