Delicate bubble spot

[Sean_A]

Definite fold. While the pot odds are attractive, win probablity is too small to risk going on the bubble in case of a loss.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Definite fold. While the pot odds are attractive, win probablity is too small to risk going on the bubble in case of a loss.


[/ QUOTE ]

We agree fold, but I disagree with your analysis. Win probability has nothing to do with this decision here. Hell if I had K8o, I'd still fold. Hero still has a good amount of FE if he folds, and will be in position to steal blinds the next two or three orbits, than to take a chance on a coinflip that will for sure leave you crippled if you lose. I'd probably have to have a top 10% of hands to call this.

It's not just about the cards folks.

[Tosh]

Ok well looks like its not so clear cut afterall. Where's Che with his extensive analysis when you need him.

[curtains]

My instinct is to fold. I used to always call but I've changed my philosophies in these situations. I don't know if I'm right though.

[Scuba Chuck]

Whoops, guess I was wrong. Foot on the brake here.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
So I called lost, and the BB folded to my raise next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If my read told me something like this was likely to happen, I would call. Otherwise, I fold if the opponents appear to be at least making an attempt at actually playing poker (as opposed to the drunk lunatics who are just playing to get the adrenaline rush from being "all-in baby!").

If UTG is tight enough to only be playing Eastbay's Set C here (any pair, suited broadway, any ace except A6o-A2o), you are 32% against the range when you only need 26% to breakeven.

However, any reasonable player would push any two here (or at least almost any two) so we're probably closer to the 38% 54o gets vs. 2 random cards.

If we take 35% since we're not *exactly* sure where UTG is in this range, our EV for calling is +182, compared to zero for folding.

The shortcut is to ask ourselves: is keeping the bigger stack worth more than T182 in folding equity? If so, this is a clear fold since we don't want the added variance here.

Why not? Even if we win, our most likely finish is 2nd which is not much better than our current expected finish. Therefore, maximizing our chances at third probably outweigh maximizing our chances at first. (Let's see how that hits people. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

Meanwhile, if we lose, our most likely finish is fourth, which is well below our current expectation. Thus, we don't win much (in terms of $EV) when we win, but we lose a lot when we lose AND we will usually lose. Seems like an easy fold. Unless...

If we will still have FE after calling and losing (thanks to overly passive big stack play AND overly tight medium stack play), we should probably take a shot since the extra folding equity of maintaining a big stack is *not* enough to justify giving up the chip EV of calling.

Knowing what buyin this was would have been nice, but it probably doesn't matter since it is hard to imagine any SNG level where the extra FE of folding would not be worth more than the extra chipEV of calling. Occasionally, we will be surprised (as in this case), but not often. So I say fold this something like 99% of the time.

There's a quick analysis for you, Tosh. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But, it still took much longer than 30 seconds so I wouldn't be surprised if I had also called if I had to analyze this in the heat of battle. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Later,
Che